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データ基準日: 2026-10-08 · 決済基準: 取引所最終日次決済価格

Palladium (PA=F) Deep Dive | Short Bias on Weak Auto Demand | 2026-10-09

We maintain a bearish bias on Palladium (PA=F) as the metal remains trapped in a structural demand deficit driven by weak automotive production and accelerating substitution by platinum and palladium-free technologies. The recent breakdown below the 20-day support channel confirms the loss of technical footing, with the market pricing in further downside risk toward the 2026-09-28 weekly low. While intraday Asian trade shows a tentative bounce, the underlying momentum remains decisively negative, supported by a 20-day decline of 13.08% and a 5D drop of 4.62%. Invalidation of this view requires a sustained close above the 20-day resistance at 1346.5, which is currently far from the current settlement of 1125.4. The risk-reward profile favors short exposure with targets near the 1115 support zone, contingent on the absence of a major supply-side disruption.