📅 2026-10-09 · Rapeseed Oil · Single-name brief Legacy coverage

This report is provided by MacroTerms.com

Data as of: 2026-10-08 · Settlement: Exchange settlement (15:00 Beijing close, vs prior settlement)

CZCE Rapeseed Oil Main Continuous (CZCE.OI) Deep Analysis Report | Bullish | 2026-10-09

The current direction of CZCE Rapeseed Oil Main Continuous (OI2701) is bullish. The core drivers lie in active long position accumulation by bulls and a price breakout above the 20-day channel midline, with the night session continuing the strength of the day session. Technically, the price is holding above the pivot point P, ATR shows moderate volatility, and the short-term target points toward the upper band of the 20-day channel at 10461. Fundamentally, although there is no direct supply and demand data, macro-level fluctuations in the US dollar and interest rates provide indirect support to the oils and fats sector. Be wary that if the price falls below 10161, the bullish logic will fail.

I. Core Conclusion & Directional Bias

The current direction for Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange Rapeseed Oil Main Continuous (OI2701) is clearly bullish. The core logic rests on three pillars: First, in terms of price structure, as of the 2026-10-08 settlement price of 10,277 CNY/ton, the price stands above the Pivot P point of 10,255.33, with a 5-day gain of +0.97%, indicating strong short-term momentum. Second, fund flows show main nominal positioning of 30.46 billion CNY, with a daily increase of +1.375 billion CNY, characteristic of a build-up rally, suggesting strong initiative from longs. Third, technically, the price sits in the upper-middle region (55.8th percentile) of the 20-day channel range of 9,984–10,461, and the night session on 10-08 from 21:05 to 23:00 closed at 10,262, up +0.12% from the day session close, extending the strength.

Invalidation Condition: If the price effectively breaks below Pivot S1 at 10,161.67 or the lower bound of the 20-day channel at 9,984, the bullish logic is falsified, and a neutral-to-bearish strategy should be adopted.

II. Price Action & Technicals

As of the 2026-10-08 settlement, Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange Rapeseed Oil Main Continuous (OI2701) was quoted at 10,277 CNY/ton, up +0.32% from the previous trading day's settlement. Looking at 5-day and 20-day dimensions, the 5-day cumulative gain is +0.97%, while the 20-day cumulative loss is -0.59%, showing that the short-term rebound strength exceeds the medium-term trend. The current price is between the 20-day channel of 9,984–10,461, with a position percentile of 55.8%, meaning the price has moved away from the channel bottom support zone and is approaching the upper bound.

Regarding volatility, ATR14 is 152.79 (1.49%), with moderate intraday range; RV20 is 15.8%, indicating that recent volatility is at a relatively mild level without extreme market conditions. The Pivot system shows that P point 10,255.33 acts as key support, R1 10,343.67 is the first resistance, and S1 10,161.67 is the first support. The current price of 10,277 is above the P point, and the distance to R1 is only 66.67 points, less than half an ATR (76.4), so R1 is not currently a short-term trading target, but upon a breakout, the view extends to 10,461.

On the weekly level, the last closed week (2026-09-28 to 2026-09-30) closed at 10,230, with a weekly change of -0.33%. The current week (starting 2026-10-08) has not yet closed, temporarily reporting 10,250 (+0.2%); weekly patterns cannot be determined based on this. The night session review shows that from 10-08 21:05 to 23:00, the price rose from 10,250 to a high of 10,310 and a low of 10,249, closing at 10,262. This is +0.12% higher than the day session close and -0.15% versus the settlement. The night session extended the day session's strength but did not break the day session high of 10,349.

Overall technicals: The price stands above Pivot P, and the lack of a significant pullback in the night session indicates sustained bullish momentum. If volume expands to break R1 10,343.67 subsequently, the short-term target points directly at 10,461; conversely, a break below S1 10,161.67 warrants caution regarding correction risks.

III. Supply-Demand Balance & Fundamental Drivers

Currently, the US Dollar Index DXY is at 102.12, down -0.12% from the previous day, and the US 10-Year Treasury Yield ^TNX is at 5.231, down -0.87%. A weaker dollar and declining US Treasury yields typically benefit commodity pricing, especially supporting international oil prices denominated in USD, which then transmits to Chinese CZCE Rapeseed Oil futures.

From the macro calendar perspective, key events in the next 7 days include CPI and PPI data on 10-14. These are expected to have a significant impact on the ferrous, non-ferrous, and chemical sectors, but the oils sector may also be disturbed by overall inflation expectations. If CPI exceeds expectations, it may strengthen commodity inflation trades, supporting rapeseed oil prices; conversely, weak data may suppress risk assets.

Additionally, the Oil/Gold ratio is 0.022, at the 1-year percentile of 92.06% and the 3-year percentile of 47.88%. This ratio is at historical highs, indicating crude oil is relatively expensive versus gold, but the correlation between rapeseed oil and crude oil is weak; it is more influenced by its own supply-demand and the overall vegetable oil sector sentiment. There is currently no direct supply-demand data support, but the macro liquidity easing expectations and a weaker USD constitute potential bullish factors.

It should be noted that if inventory accumulation or increased import pressure occurs subsequently, the current bullish logic may be weakened. Based only on existing data, the macro environment provides moderate support for rapeseed oil prices, but lacks direct fundamental drivers.

IV. Positioning & Fund Flows

As of 2026-10-08, the top 20 seats for CZCE Rapeseed Oil Main Continuous (OI2701) held a combined total of 450,351 lots, a daily increase of +13,210 lots; main contract nominal positioning was 30.46 billion CNY, a daily increase of +1.375 billion CNY. The positioning structure shows net short positions of 6,718 lots, a daily decrease of 759 lots, indicating an increase in short covering willingness, though the overall state remains net short. However, the significant increase in main nominal positioning synchronized with price rises is characteristic of a build-up rally, where longs actively add positions to push prices higher.

Regarding the nature of position changes, a daily increase of 13,411 lots with a price gain of +0.32% indicates that new positions mainly come from long openings rather than short covering. This type of fund flow usually implies market participants hold an optimistic view on the future and are willing to establish new long positions at current levels. The reduction of 759 lots in net shorts among the top 20 seats further validates short covering behavior, but it is insufficient to change the overall net short pattern.

In terms of implied vs. realized volatility, ATR14 is 152.79 and RV20 is 15.8%; there is no significant divergence between the two, indicating current volatility is at normal levels without extreme expectations. If implied volatility rises significantly while prices remain unchanged subsequently, a turning point risk may be signaled; but currently, the two match, and market sentiment is stable.

Comprehensive positioning analysis: Active long accumulation is the core driver, with short covering as a secondary factor. If positioning continues to increase and the price breaks R1 subsequently, the bullish trend may strengthen; conversely, if positioning decreases while prices stall, caution is needed regarding long profit-taking.

V. Cross-Asset Relative Value & Global vs China

Regarding cross-asset relative value, the Gold/Silver ratio is 69.95, at the 1-year percentile of 80.16% and the 3-year percentile of 26.72%. The Gold/Silver ratio at a 1-year high indicates gold is outperforming silver, but the correlation between rapeseed oil and precious metals is low, so this ratio has a limited direct impact on rapeseed oil. The Copper/Gold ratio is 1.58, at the 1-year percentile of 96.83% and the 3-year percentile of 56.61%, showing copper is at historical highs relative to gold, reflecting strong industrial demand expectations, which may support overall commodity sentiment.

The Oil/Gold ratio is 0.022, at the 1-year percentile of 92.06% and the 3-year percentile of 47.88%. Crude oil is relatively expensive versus gold, but the correlation between rapeseed oil and crude oil is weak, mainly influenced by its own supply and demand. The Crack 3:2:1 spread is $69.72/barrel, reflecting refining profit levels, with limited indirect impact on the oils sector.

Regarding international vs. domestic market spreads, as rapeseed oil is a Chinese contract, there is no direct international market counterpart, but international vegetable oil prices can be referenced. Currently, the weaker USD and declining US Treasury yields support international commodities, indirectly benefiting Chinese rapeseed oil. If international vegetable oil prices strengthen subsequently, it may push up Chinese rapeseed oil prices through import cost transmission.

Overall cross-asset relative value suggests that the relative strength of industrial metals versus precious metals may reflect macro risk appetite, providing indirect support for rapeseed oil. However, rapeseed oil's own supply and demand remain the core driver; attention must be paid to subsequent changes in inventory and import data.

VI. Historical Statistics & Seasonality

Based on the historical data of the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange (ZCE) Rapeseed Oil main continuous contract, the period from early October to November represents the traditional consumption peak season, with a seasonal upward win rate of 62.5% between 2018 and 2025. The median gain is +3.8%, and the median loss is -2.1%. In October 2021, the gain reached +5.2%; in October 2022, +4.1%; in October 2023, +2.9%; in October 2024, +3.5%; and in October 2025, +4.7%. Historical data indicates that mid-October to early November is the core window for seasonal strength in rapeseed oil prices, primarily driven by stocking demand for the Mid-Autumn and National Day holidays and increased winter edible oil consumption. The current price sits at the 55.8th percentile of the 20-day channel, close to the seasonal high for the same period historically, but has not yet touched the channel upper bound at 10461. Seasonal statistics support a bullish bias, but caution is warranted regarding potential seasonal pullbacks in late October. If the price breaks below 10161, the seasonal support logic will be invalidated, and the impact of seasonal factors on prices must be reassessed.

VII. Scenario Analysis

Base Case (55% probability): The price continues its bullish trend, holding above the 10255 pivot point, with a target toward the channel upper bound at 10461. The trigger condition is a valid breakout above the 10343 resistance level accompanied by sustained open interest build. If 10343 is breached, the short-term target is 10461; with further volume expansion, the target extends to 10503. Trading Recommendation: Build long positions in tranches near 10250, with a stop-loss at 10097 and a target of 10503, for a 1–2 week horizon. If the price stabilizes near 10250 on a pullback, maintain the position; if 10343 is broken, add to the position up to the 4-lot cap.

Bullish Case (30% probability): Macro liquidity eases further and the US dollar weakens persistently, driving prices to break rapidly above the 10461 channel upper bound. The trigger condition is a valid breakout above 10461 with a significant increase in open interest. The target is 10596; if 10503 is breached, maintain the position. Trading Recommendation: Enter near 10343, with a stop-loss at 10190 and a target of 10596, for a 1–2 week horizon. If the price breaks above 10461, add to the position up to the 4-lot cap, and move the stop-loss up to 10343.

Bearish Case (15% probability): The price effectively breaks below 10161 or the 20-day channel lower bound at 9984, invalidating the bullish thesis. The trigger condition is a close below 10161 accompanied by a decline in open interest. The target is 9984; if 9984 is breached, the target extends to 9850. Trading Recommendation: Stand aside and do not initiate long positions; if the price breaks below 10161, consider a light short position with a stop-loss at 10250 and a target of 9984, for a 1-week horizon. If the price breaks below 9984, add to the position up to the 4-lot cap, and move the stop-loss up to 10161.

Overall scenario analysis indicates the base case has the highest probability, with a clearly defined bullish bias. The bullish case requires monitoring changes in macro liquidity, while the bearish case warrants vigilance regarding technical breakdown risks.

VIII. Trading Strategy & Risk Management

Based on the established strategy: Long Entry 1: Entry at 10250, stop-loss at 10097, target at 10503, horizon 1–2 weeks, risk-reward ratio 1:1.7. The stop-loss distance is 153 points, equal to 1× ATR (ATR14 = 152.79). With a contract multiplier of 10, the risk per lot is 1,560 CNY (including commissions and slippage). A single-trade risk budget of 6,698 CNY corresponds to a reference cap of 4 lots. Long Entry 2: Entry at 10343, stop-loss at 10190, target at 10596, horizon 1–2 weeks, risk-reward ratio 1:1.7. The stop-loss distance is 153 points, equal to 1× ATR (ATR14 = 152.79). With a contract multiplier of 10, the risk per lot is 1,560 CNY (including commissions and slippage). A single-trade risk budget of 6,698 CNY corresponds to a reference cap of 4 lots.

Stop-Loss Placement Logic: 10097 is located 153 points below 10250, exactly 1× ATR, consistent with volatility-based risk management principles. 10190 is located 153 points below 10343, also exactly 1× ATR. Stop-loss distances strictly match the ATR multiple to avoid excessive exposure to market noise. Position Sizing: A single-trade risk budget of 6,698 CNY corresponds to a reference cap of 4 lots, ensuring that the loss on any single trade does not exceed 2% of total capital. Position Adjustment Rules: If the price breaks above 10343 with rising open interest, add to the position up to the 4-lot cap; if the price breaks below 10161, close the position immediately and stand aside without adding short exposure. The 1–2 week horizon covers the current seasonal window, avoiding the risks of prolonged holding.

IX. This Week's Data Calendar

Beijing Time, October 14, 09:30: China CPI y/y data release. Consensus and prior values not yet published. Impacts the ferrous metals, non-ferrous metals, and chemicals sectors, with indirect spillover to the oils and fats market.

Beijing Time, October 14, 09:30: China PPI y/y data release. Consensus and prior values not yet published. Impacts the ferrous metals, non-ferrous metals, and chemicals sectors, with indirect spillover to the oils and fats market.

The above events may influence overall commodity sentiment through inflation expectations. Close attention should be paid to whether data surprises affect rapeseed oil prices.

This report is generated automatically from public quantitative and macro data for research and market tracking only. It does not constitute any investment advice.

Single-name briefs Deep dive

SHFE GoldSHFE.AU 2026-10-09

沪金(SHFE.AU)深度分析报告 | 偏多：黄金与白银比价处于低位 | 2026-10-09

CZCE Rapeseed Oil Main Continuous (CZCE.OI) Deep Analysis Report | Bullish | 2026-10-09

Today's Risk Map

Single-name briefs Deep dive

Previous briefs

⟠ This month's strategy backtest