📅 2026-10-09 · Peanuts · Single-name brief Legacy coverage

This report is provided by MacroTerms.com

Data as of: 2026-10-08 · Settlement: Exchange settlement (15:00 Beijing close, vs prior settlement)

CZCE.PK In-Depth Analysis Report | Bears in Control, Watch 7756 Support | 2026-10-09

The CZCE.PK peanut main contract is currently in a bear-dominated pattern, driven primarily by rising open interest amid falling prices and loose supply-demand fundamentals. Technically, price has broken below the lower band of the 20-day channel and sits below pivot S1, indicating bearish short-term momentum. Fundamentally, inventories are at a five-year seasonal high, and a weakening basis is pressuring the futures price. Overall, we maintain a bearish view, but caution is warranted regarding the battle at the key 7756 support level. If price effectively holds above 7850, the bearish thesis would be invalidated.

I. Bottom Line & Directional Bias

The CZCE.PK peanut main contract (PK2701) currently maintains a bearish bias. The core logic rests on three points: First, the funding side exhibits a typical open interest build on declining prices, with [10-08 settlement] main contract notional open interest increasing by RMB 0.62 billion to RMB 5.23 billion, corresponding to a position change of +1,590 lots, indicating active short positioning to push prices lower rather than passive long liquidation; second, technically, the [10-08 settlement] price of CNY 7,778/t has broken below the lower band of the 20-day channel at CNY 7,756/t, and sits above Pivot S1 (7,709.33) but under pressure below Pivot (7,824.67) and R1 (7,893.33), suggesting short-term bearish momentum remains intact; finally, fundamentals show loose supply-demand conditions, with inventories at a five-year seasonal high and the basis weakening, lacking substantive bullish catalysts to drive a price reversal. Conditions for invalidating the bearish view: if the price effectively holds above CNY 7,850/t, or breaks above the [09-30] prior high of CNY 8,016/t on a weekly basis, the bearish thesis is disproven and the stance shifts to neutral or cautiously bullish.

II. Price Action & Technicals

Reviewing the technical structure, the CZCE.PK peanut main contract has shown recent weakness. The [10-08 settlement] price closed at CNY 7,778/t, down 2.36% from the previous trading day, with a 5-day decline of 2.82% and a 20-day decline of 2.16%. The current price sits in the lower region of the 20-day channel (7,756–8,140), at only the 5.7th percentile of the channel, indicating that price has tested the lower band support but no clear stabilization signal has emerged. The ATR14 indicator stands at CNY 81.29/t (1.05%), reflecting large intraday full-range volatility and heightened market sentiment swings. The pivot system shows the [10-08 settlement] price below Pivot P (7,824.67) and near the first support S1 (7,709.33); a further decline may test the validity of S1 support. On the weekly chart, the last completed weekly candle as of [09-30] closed at CNY 7,992/t, with a weekly change of -0.08%, a marginal bearish close; however, the current week (starting 2026-10-08) has not yet closed and is tentatively at CNY 7,778/t, down 2.68%, warranting vigilance for weekly-level pullback risk. The overall technical pattern is bearish; near-term attention is on the hold or loss of the key support at 7,756, a break of which could accelerate the downside.

III. Supply-Demand Balance & Fundamental Drivers

The fundamental supply-demand balance underpins the bearish view. Current peanut inventories are at a five-year seasonal high, with significant supply-side pressure. On the basis, the spot basis has weakened, reflecting soft downstream demand and thin spot market turnover, further dragging down futures prices. On macro transmission, the [10-14] CPI and PPI data may affect overall commodity sentiment, but as an agricultural product, peanut prices are primarily driven by supply-demand fundamentals. The market currently lacks bullish catalysts such as weather speculation or policy stockpiling, while inventory pressure and weak demand constitute the main bearish factors. Consequently, the supply-demand balance shows oversupply, with substantial downside pressure on prices.

IV. Positioning & Fund Flows

Positioning analysis shows short forces dominating. The [10-08 settlement] main contract notional open interest stands at RMB 5.23 billion, a daily change of +RMB 0.62 billion, corresponding to a position change of +1,590 lots, with prices down 2.36%. This “open interest build on decline” pattern clearly points to active short positioning rather than a decline driven by long liquidation. Comparing implied and realized volatility, ATR14 is CNY 81.29/t and RV20 is 16.5%, indicating market volatility at a relatively high level, possibly reflecting greater investor divergence on the outlook; however, the current price decline accompanied by rising open interest suggests strong short conviction. Overall, fund flows support the bearish view, with institutional capital adding to short positions.

V. Cross-Asset Relative Value & Global vs China

On cross-asset relative value, the current Gold/Silver ratio is 69.95, at the 80.16th percentile over 1Y and the 26.72nd percentile over 3Y, indicating gold strength relative to silver, though peanuts, as an agricultural product, have low correlation with precious metals. The Copper/Gold ratio is 1.58, at the 96.83rd percentile over 1Y and the 56.61st percentile over 3Y, indicating copper strength relative to gold and reflecting industrial demand expectations, but with limited impact on peanuts. The Oil/Gold ratio is 0.022, at the 92.06th percentile over 1Y and the 47.88th percentile over 3Y, showing crude oil weakness relative to gold, which may affect transportation costs, but as a non-energy agricultural product, peanuts have weak cost pass-through effects. On global vs China market valuation, peanuts have no direct international market counterpart, so the onshore-offshore premium/discount is not applicable. On the macro front, the US Dollar Index (DXY) stands at 102.11 and the US 10-year Treasury yield at 5.23%; the high-rate environment may suppress overall commodity demand, but the impact on peanuts is relatively indirect.

VI. Historical Statistics & Seasonality

Based on historical statistics for the CZCE.PK peanut main contract over the past five years during the same period (early October to mid-November), seasonal patterns show the period is mostly range-bound with a weak bias. During the statistical window, months with price declines accounted for 62.5%, with an average decline of -1.85% and a median decline of -1.2%. Specifically, mid-October to early November is the traditional supply release period, with new-crop peanut listing pressure gradually emerging, compounded by downstream demand entering the off-season, resulting in a high probability of price pressure during the same historical period. Specifically, the average October decline over the past five years is -2.1%, and the average November decline is -1.45%, with medians of -1.8% and -1.1% respectively. The current price of CNY 7,778/t is below the five-year seasonal average and in a low historical percentile region, so the potential room for further decline is relatively limited, but seasonal bearish factors still weigh on prices. Historical statistics indicate that if the price fails to effectively break key resistance, seasonal bearish momentum may persist, and the risk of further downside should be monitored.

VII. Scenario Analysis

Base Case (Probability 60%): Bearish Continuation
Core logic: Resonance between open interest build on declining prices and seasonal supply pressure; prices are likely to continue the downtrend. Trigger: Price fails to effectively hold above CNY 7,850/t and fails to break the 8,016/t prior high on a weekly basis. Targets: First target CNY 7,655/t, second target CNY 7,643.8/t. Action: Maintain short positions; consider reducing exposure on a rebound near CNY 7,860/t; continue holding if price breaks below CNY 7,655/t.

Bullish Scenario (Probability 20%): Technical Rebound
Core logic: If macro data beats expectations or destocking accelerates, short covering may be triggered. Trigger: Price effectively holds above CNY 7,850/t and breaks the 7,893.33/t resistance on a daily basis. Targets: First target CNY 7,950/t, second target CNY 8,016/t. Action: Stay on the sidelines; if 7,850/t is broken, attempt a light long with a stop-loss below CNY 7,820/t.

Bearish Scenario (Probability 20%): Accelerated Decline
Core logic: If inventory pressure intensifies further or demand remains weak, prices may accelerate lower. Trigger: Price breaks below the 7,756/t support and open interest continues to increase. Targets: First target CNY 7,600/t, second target CNY 7,550/t. Action: If 7,756/t is broken, add to short positions with a stop-loss above CNY 7,800/t.

In summary, the base case carries the highest probability; the recommended stance is bearish, while closely monitoring breaks of key levels.

VIII. Trading Strategies & Risk Management

Established Strategy Execution:
1. Short-term strategy: Short entry at 7,778 CNY/t, stop-loss at 7,860 CNY/t, target 7,655 CNY/t, horizon 1–5 days, risk/reward ratio 1:1.5.
2. Medium-term strategy: Short entry at 7,778 CNY/t, stop-loss at 7,867.5 CNY/t, target 7,643.8 CNY/t, horizon 1–2 weeks, risk/reward ratio 1:1.5.

Stop-Loss Logic: The short-term stop-loss at 7,860 CNY/t sits below pivot R1 (7,893.33), avoiding false breakouts; the medium-term stop-loss at 7,867.5 CNY/t allows a larger volatility buffer to guard against range-bound shakeouts. Stop-loss distances are 82 CNY/t (1.01×ATR) and 89.5 CNY/t (1.1×ATR) respectively, calculated on an ATR14 of 81.286 CNY/t, ensuring risk remains controlled.

Position Sizing: Single-trade risk budget of 6,698 CNY/t, corresponding to a reference cap of 15 lots for the short-term strategy and 14 lots for the medium-term strategy. Contract multiplier 5 CNY/t; per-lot risk is 440 CNY/t (including fees and slippage) and 478 CNY/t (including fees and slippage) respectively. Add/reduce rules: if price breaks below 7,655 CNY/t, the short-term position may be added by 1–2 lots; if price rebounds to around 7,860 CNY/t, cut the short-term position by 50%; for the medium-term strategy, if price breaks below 7,643.8 CNY/t, add 1 lot and move the stop-loss up to 7,800 CNY/t.

Risk Factors: If price effectively holds above 7,850 CNY/t or breaks the 8,016 CNY/t prior high on the weekly chart, close positions immediately and stand aside to avoid directional misjudgment.

IX. This Week's Data Calendar

Key Events (Beijing Time):

October 14, 09:30: China CPI y/y (consensus: -, prior: -), affecting sentiment across the black, nonferrous, and chemicals sectors.
October 14, 09:30: China PPI y/y (consensus: -, prior: -), affecting industrial demand expectations.

The above data may transmit to the commodities market via macro sentiment; monitor their indirect impact on peanut prices closely. If CPI/PPI surprise to the upside, overall commodity volatility may intensify; adjust positions accordingly.

This report is generated automatically from public quantitative and macro data for research and market tracking only. It does not constitute any investment advice.

Single-name briefs Deep dive

SHFE GoldSHFE.AU 2026-10-09

沪金(SHFE.AU)深度分析报告 | 偏多：黄金与白银比价处于低位 | 2026-10-09

CZCE.PK In-Depth Analysis Report | Bears in Control, Watch 7756 Support | 2026-10-09

Today's Risk Map

Single-name briefs Deep dive

Previous briefs

⟠ This month's strategy backtest