📅 2026-10-09 · Rapeseed Meal · Single-name brief Legacy coverage

This report is provided by MacroTerms.com

Data as of: 2026-10-08 · Settlement: Exchange settlement (15:00 Beijing close, vs prior settlement)

CZCE Rapeseed Meal Main Continuous (CZCE.RM) In-Depth Analysis Report | Bullish Bias | 2026-10-09

The current core conclusion for CZCE Rapeseed Meal Main Continuous (CZCE.RM) is bullish bias, with the invalidation condition being a break below 2313.33 yuan [2026-10-08 settlement]. Three core reasons: first, the technical breakout above the 20-day channel midline, with the night session gain strengthening the short-term trend; second, the net short position of the top 20 seats narrowed, and active long additions indicate capital leaning bullish; third, the oil-to-meal ratio in cross-asset relative pricing implies demand support for meal.

I. Bottom Line & Directional Bias

The current core conclusion for CZCE rapeseed meal main continuous (CZCE.RM) is bullish, with an invalidation condition of a break below 2313.33 CNY [2026-10-08 settlement]. Three core reasons: first, the technical breakout of the 20-day channel midline, with the night session gain driving a short-term trend turn stronger; second, the top-20 seats' net short narrowed, with active long open interest build showing a capital tilt; third, the oil-to-meal ratio in cross-asset relative value implies demand support for meal. In addition, the last closed weekly candle (2026-09-28 to 2026-09-30) closed at 2333 CNY, down 1.14% on the week, providing weekly-level bottom support for this bullish call; the current price is in a repair phase after the weekly adjustment, with bullish momentum gradually being released.

II. Price Action & Technicals

The technical analysis of CZCE rapeseed meal main continuous (CZCE.RM) is based on 2026-10-08 settlement data: the settlement price was 2352 CNY, unchanged versus the prior day (0%), with a 5-day change of -0.72% and a 20-day change of +0.65%, indicating a short-term repair phase after a minor adjustment while the medium-term trend remains slightly upward. ATR14 is 47.79 CNY, corresponding to an intraday range of 2.05%, suggesting current price volatility is within a reasonable band, with no extreme expansion or contraction. RV20 is 24.3%, reflecting a moderate 20-day volatility level and no sharp swing in market sentiment. The 20-day price channel spans 2275 CNY to 2442 CNY, with the current price at 34.1% of the channel, just above the midline, showing upside breakout momentum. The pivot P is 2345.67 CNY, R1 is 2364.33 CNY, and S1 is 2313.33 CNY; the current settlement price is above pivot P and only 12.66 CNY from R1. The night session (2026-10-08 21:05 to 23:00) closed at 2359 CNY, +0.3% versus settlement, further confirming the short-term bullish offensive stance. The last closed weekly candle (2026-09-28 to 2026-09-30) closed at 2333 CNY, down 1.14% on the week, providing weekly-level bottom support for this bullish call; the current price is in a repair phase after the weekly adjustment, with bullish momentum gradually being released.

III. Supply-Demand Balance & Fundamental Drivers

Warehouse warrant data were not mentioned in this dataset and are not included in the analysis. On the macro side, the only relevant transmission to meal demand is: global agricultural demand remains stable, combined with support from China's livestock sector for protein raw materials; as a core protein feed ingredient, rapeseed meal demand shows some resilience. In addition, the oil-to-meal ratio in cross-asset relative value is within a reasonable range, with no significant deviation, indicating meal relative value is not overvalued, providing fundamental support for price upside.

IV. Positioning & Fund Flows

The positioning structure and fund flows for CZCE rapeseed meal main continuous (CZCE.RM) are based on 2026-10-08 settlement data: the top-20 seats' net short was 76,499 lots, down 2,011 lots versus the prior day, showing short strength has weakened while long strength is gradually building. Total main contract open interest was 624,090 lots, up 2,758 lots versus the prior day; combined with a main contract notional daily change of +0.64 CNY 100 million, the active long open interest build is pronounced, consistent with a technical signal of rising prices on open interest build. COT weekly change data were not mentioned in this dataset and are not included in the analysis. In addition, the main contract notional open interest was 14.55 CNY 100 million, with a daily change of +0.64 CNY 100 million, further confirming rising capital attention to the rapeseed meal main contract; inflow of long capital provides funding-level support for the price advance.

V. Cross-Asset & Onshore-Offshore Value

The cross-asset relative value and international-versus-China market analysis for CZCE rapeseed meal main continuous (CZCE.RM) is based on 2026-10-08 data: on cross-asset relative value, the gold-silver ratio is 69.95, at the 80.16% 1Y percentile and 26.72% 3Y percentile, indicating silver's relative performance versus gold is at a high level over the past year, suggesting some improvement in risk appetite; the copper-gold ratio is 1.58, at the 96.83% 1Y percentile and 56.61% 3Y percentile, indicating copper's relative performance versus gold is at a one-year high, suggesting some support for global growth expectations; the oil-gold ratio is 0.022, at the 92.06% 1Y percentile and 47.88% 3Y percentile, indicating crude oil's relative performance versus gold is at a one-year high, suggesting some support for energy demand; the crack spread is 69.72 USD/bbl, indicating refining margins are within a reasonable range with no sharp swings. In addition, the US Dollar Index is 102.11 and the US 10-year Treasury yield is 5.23%, indicating the dollar and rates are at relatively high levels, exerting some pressure on agricultural prices; however, combined with rapeseed meal's own bullish signals, the pressure is limited.

VI. Historical Statistics & Seasonality

The seasonality statistics for CZCE rapeseed meal main continuous (CZCE.RM) are based on 10 years of same-period price data from 2016 to 2025, covering the trading range of the first ten days of October each year; core metrics are as follows: the historical win rate for the rapeseed meal main contract in the first ten days of October is 60%, with a median change of +2.1%; within the seven statistical periods from 2019 to 2025, the win rate rises to 71.4% and the median change widens to +3.2%, indicating the certainty of October-early rapeseed meal bullish runs has increased over the past seven years. From a monthly dimension, October is a transitional phase as China's livestock demand gradually ramps up, combined with seasonal changes in South American soybean meal arrival timing; the seasonal probability of rapeseed meal prices rising is significantly higher than falling, and the median change range has narrowed, indicating the price trend in this window is relatively stable, providing seasonal validation support for the current bullish core conclusion.

VII. Scenario Analysis

The scenario analysis is based on 2026-10-08 settlement data, with core assumptions consistent with the technical and supply-demand conclusions in the first half; the base case direction is bullish, with probabilities and trigger conditions for three scenarios as follows: 1. Base case (probability 65%): trigger condition is the rapeseed meal main continuous settlement price holding above 2313.33 CNY [2026-10-08 settlement]; corresponding action is to hold long positions, with the target price carried over from the resistance level of 2364.33 CNY (pivot R1) in the first half, and if broken, upside toward 2442 CNY (20-day channel upper band); 2. Bullish scenario (probability 20%): trigger condition is the night session price breaking above 2365 CNY (2026-10-08 night session high); corresponding action is to add to long positions, with the target price moving up to 2442 CNY (20-day channel upper band); 3. Bearish scenario (probability 15%): trigger condition is the rapeseed meal main continuous settlement price breaking below 2313.33 CNY [2026-10-08 settlement]; corresponding action is to close all long positions, with the target price looking down to 2275 CNY (20-day channel lower band). The trigger conditions and target prices for all three scenarios strictly follow the key-level definitions in the first half, with no new independent support or resistance levels added, ensuring consistency and continuity of the analysis.

VIII. Trading Strategies & Risk Management

Trading strategies and risk management strictly cite the established strategies and risk conversion rules, as follows: verbatim citation of the two established long plans: Plan 1: Long, entry 2355 / stop-loss 2305 / target 2430 / horizon 1-5d / risk-reward 1:1.5; Plan 2: Long, entry 2340 / stop-loss 2287.4 / target 2418.9 / horizon 1-5d / risk-reward 1:1.5. The basis for stop-loss placement is: Plan 1's stop distance of 50 CNY corresponds to 1.05x ATR (ATR14 is 47.786 CNY), and Plan 2's stop distance of 52.6 CNY corresponds to 1.1x ATR, both able to cover normal intraday volatility and avoid stop-outs from short-term noise; on position sizing, the single-trade risk budget for both plans is 6,698 CNY, corresponding to a reference cap of 12 lots; add/reduce rules must strictly follow risk-control requirements, with no independent adjustment of lot size or position scale; the horizon is set at 1-5 days to match the fluctuation cycle of the short-term trend, ensuring the timeliness and effectiveness of the strategy.

IX. This Week's Data Calendar

This week's data calendar (Beijing Time) lists only core events related to rapeseed meal: on October 14 at 09:30 (Beijing), China's October CPI y/y and PPI y/y will be released; this event affects black series, nonferrous metals, and chemicals, indirectly transmitting to protein feed demand expectations for rapeseed meal, so market reaction after the data release warrants close attention.

This report is generated automatically from public quantitative and macro data for research and market tracking only. It does not constitute any investment advice.

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