📅 2026-10-09 · Rapeseed · Single-name brief Legacy coverage

This report is provided by MacroTerms.com

Data as of: 2026-10-08 · Settlement: Exchange settlement (15:00 Beijing close, vs prior settlement)

CZCE.RS (Rapeseed) Deep Analysis | Short-Biased Structure at 99th Percentile of Open Interest | 2026-10-09

Directional Conclusion: Short-Biased. CZCE.RS Rapeseed settlement on 10-08 was 5419, with a 5-day change of -1.78% and a 20-day change of +4.29%. The 20-day channel position is only 8.1%, with prices hovering near the lower boundary. Main position open interest stands at 15,831 (-886), retreating from the 99th percentile over the past year. The decline on shrinking volume indicates long liquidation rather than short covering. Fundamentally, there is no verifiable support from inventory, warrant, or basis data, casting doubt on the sustainability of the 20-day gain. On the cross-asset front, the Copper/Gold ratio is at 1.58 (96.83% 1Y percentile) and the Oil/Gold ratio is at 0.022 (92.06% 1Y percentile), reflecting strong growth and inflation expectations that lack direct bullish transmission to rapeseed. Invalidation Condition: Settlement price effectively breaks above the 20-day channel upper boundary at 5855, or open interest increases from the 15,831 level accompanied by a price breakout above 5449.33 (R1).

I. Bottom Line & Directional Bias

Direction: Bearish. Three core reasons:

First, the price structure is weak. The 10-08 settlement was 5419, with a 5-day return of -1.78% and a 20-day return of +4.29%. However, the 20-day channel position is only 8.1% (range 5385–5855), meaning the 20-day gain has been almost entirely given back, with price hovering near the lower bound of the range. The last five settlement days have drifted down sequentially from 5486 on 09-24 to 5423 on 10-08, showing diminishing rebound momentum.

Second, positioning is shifting. Main contract open interest stands at 15,831 (-886). The trigger condition for this report was that positioning was at the 99th percentile over the past year; however, the latest session saw a notable decline in open interest while prices rose slightly (+0.17%). This constitutes a “short-covering / long-liquidation” rally, which more closely resembles proactive long exits rather than new short entries. The marginal support from high-level positioning is weakening.

Third, neither fundamentals nor cross-asset signals provide incremental bullish catalysts. On the cross-asset side, the copper-gold ratio is 1.58 (1Y percentile 96.83%) and the oil-gold ratio is 0.022 (1Y percentile 92.06%), reflecting macro growth and inflation expectations that have no direct transmission to rapeseed.

Invalidation Condition: Settlement price effectively breaks above the 20-day channel upper bound of 5855, or open interest rebuilds from 15,831 with price breaking above pivot R1 at 5449.33. Until then, the bearish bias is maintained.

II. Price Action & Technicals

Using the 10-08 settlement as the baseline: settlement at 5419, close at 5423, +0.17% versus the prior settlement. On an interval basis, the 5-day return is -1.78% and the 20-day return is +4.29%; the opposing directions indicate that the 20-day gain was primarily driven by an earlier lift, while the most recent week has turned into a give-back.

Channel & Position: The 20-day range is 5385–5855. The current settlement of 5419 sits at the 8.1% percentile of this range, i.e., near the lower bound. The last five settlement days were: 09-24 close 5486 (high 5552 / low 5485), 09-28 close 5450 (high 5494 / low 5445), 09-29 close 5385 (high 5446 / low 5385), 09-30 close 5414 (high 5423 / low 5400), 10-08 close 5423 (high 5445 / low 5388). The 09-29 low of 5385 coincides with the 20-day lower bound, forming the most direct horizontal support reference; above, the 5445–5494 zone represents the dense trading area over the past two weeks.

Volatility: ATR14 is 97.64, approximately 1.8% of the settlement price (intraday full-range basis); RV20 is 42.7%. Measured by ATR, pivot P at 5418.67 is virtually identical to the settlement of 5419. R1 at 5449.33 is only about 30 points from settlement, and S1 at 5392.33 is about 27 points away. Both are within less than half an ATR (approximately 49 points), so R1/S1 do not constitute effective tradeable levels and serve only as intraday references. The boundaries that truly matter are the 20-day lower bound at 5385 and upper bound at 5855.

Weekly Basis: The most recent completed weekly candle covers 2026-09-28 to 09-30, opening at 5450, high 5494, low 5385, closing at 5414, with a weekly change of -1.31%. It was a bearish candle closing near the weekly low, indicating a lower weekly center of gravity. This week (only one session since 10-08) has not yet closed, currently quoting 5423 (+0.17%); no weekly conclusions are drawn from this.

Synthesis: Price is at the lower bound of the 20-day range, the weekly center of gravity is shifting lower, and volatility is neutral-to-elevated (RV20 42.7%). Technically, the market favors weak consolidation. Only by reclaiming the 5445–5494 dense zone and challenging 5855 would the weak structure be negated.

III. Supply-Demand Balance & Fundamental Drivers

First, the combination of price and positioning is the most verifiable fundamental signal currently available. The 10-08 settlement was 5419, +0.17% versus the prior settlement, while main contract open interest was 15,831 (-886). In the absence of incremental inventory and warrant data, a slight price increase accompanied by a notable decline in positioning typically corresponds to existing long liquidation rather than new buying pressure. This implies that the 20-day gain of +4.29% lacks confirmation from positioning expansion, and its sustainability is weak.

Second, the 20-day channel position of 8.1% (range 5385–5855) indicates the market has given back most of its prior gains. If fundamentals were genuinely tightening (e.g., inventory destocking or warrant cancellations), price would typically find support at the lower bound accompanied by rising open interest. What is observed instead is shrinking volume and declining positioning near the lower bound, which is inconsistent with the characteristics of a fundamentally-driven rally.

Third, regarding macro transmission, only the portions potentially relevant to this commodity are cited: the US Dollar Index at 102.12 (-0.12%) [2026-10-08] and the US 10-Year Treasury Yield at 5.23% (-0.87%) [2026-10-08]. The synchronous slight decline in the dollar and yields theoretically provides marginal support to the cost side of USD-denominated agricultural products, but the magnitude is limited. The pricing core of rapeseed remains rooted in its own supply-demand dynamics and China's crushing pace; macro variables are insufficient to alter the directional bias.

Fourth, on the event front, the key calendar item over the next seven days related to Chinese commodities is the CPI and PPI YoY data released on 10-14 at 09:30 (neither consensus nor prior values are provided). The impact annotation covers black metals, base metals, and chemicals, without directly pointing to rapeseed. Given the absence of expectation values, no directional forecast is made on this data release.

Conclusion: Fundamentals lack verifiable incremental bullish catalysts. The price uptick lacks dual confirmation from both positioning and inventory data, and the supply-demand balance does not support establishing a long thesis near the current 5419 level.

IV. Positioning & Fund Flows

Total Positioning: Main contract open interest stands at 15,831, down 886 from the prior period. The trigger condition for this deep-dive report was that positioning was at the 99th percentile over the past year—meaning the absolute level remains in a historical high zone—but the latest session saw a notable pullback, indicating that high-level positioning is beginning to loosen.

Price-Positioning Combination Assessment: The 10-08 settlement was 5419, +0.17% versus the prior settlement, while open interest declined by 886. Per the defined framework, a price rise accompanied by falling open interest constitutes a “short-covering / long-liquidation” rally, not proactive long accumulation. Combined with the 5-day return of -1.78%, the more reasonable interpretation is that prior longs are progressively taking profit after the 20-day gain (+4.29%), rather than new money entering on the long side. It must be emphasized that a price rise accompanied by increasing open interest is the signal of active buying; the current combination does not constitute that signal.

Volatility Structure: ATR14 is 97.64 (approximately 1.8% of the settlement price, intraday full-range basis), and RV20 is 42.7%. It can be confirmed that 20-day realized volatility is at an elevated level. Combined with price trading near the lower bound of the 20-day range (position 8.1%), this indicates that recent volatility has been predominantly contributed by the downside give-back.

Fund Flow Conclusion: With positioning retreating from the 99th percentile of the past year, and this retreat occurring against a backdrop of slightly rising prices, the marginal direction of funds is outflow. This structure is unfavorable for longs and is consistent with the bearish conclusion in Section I. Going forward, the key focus is whether open interest can re-expand above 15,831—if positioning recovers and price holds above R1 at 5449.33 and further challenges 5494, the positioning structure assessment would need to be revised.

V. Cross-Asset Relative Value & Global vs China Markets

This section quotes only the cross-asset relative value snapshot (as-of 2026-10-08) levels and percentiles, without independently recalculating any ratios.

Copper/Gold Ratio: 1.58, 1Y percentile 96.83%, 3Y percentile 56.61%. The ratio sits at an extremely high one-year percentile, reflecting copper's strength relative to gold, typically associated with stronger growth expectations. For rapeseed, this signal transmits indirectly via macro risk appetite and does not constitute a direct bullish or bearish catalyst.

Oil/Gold Ratio: 0.022, 1Y percentile 92.06%, 3Y percentile 47.88%. Crude oil relative to gold is also at a high one-year percentile, pointing to elevated energy-side inflation expectations.

Gold/Silver Ratio: 69.95, 1Y percentile 80.16%, 3Y percentile 26.72%. The elevated one-year percentile combined with a low three-year percentile indicates silver has been relatively stronger versus gold over the longer cycle, while gold has recovered over the past year. This ratio has no direct transmission path to rapeseed and is recorded purely as a macro state reference.

Other Macro Benchmarks: DXY 102.11, 10Y UST 5.23%, VIX 15.41, GVZ 22.68, OVX 48.4 [2026-10-08]. The US dollar and Treasury yields edged lower on the day (DXY -0.12%, ^TNX -0.87%), and the risk appetite indicator VIX at 15.41 remains at low levels. The overall macro environment is mildly supportive — neither a significant headwind nor a meaningful tailwind for agricultural commodities. The 3:2:1 Crack Spread stands at USD 69.72/bbl [2026-10-08], a refinery margin metric with no direct relative-value relationship to rapeseed.

Synthesis: The cross-asset complex signals stronger growth and inflation expectations, but all transmission paths are indirect and cannot provide directional support for rapeseed. Rapeseed's directional judgment must revert to its own price structure and positioning changes, i.e., the bearish conclusion from Section I.

VI. Historical Statistics & Seasonality

The only confirmable statistical facts come from the market snapshot: the most recent completed weekly candle (2026-09-28 to 09-30) opened at 5450, high 5494, low 5385, closed at 5414, with a weekly change of -1.31% — a bearish candle closing near its weekly low. The last five settled daily prices declined progressively from 5486 on 09-24 to 5423 on 10-08, with the center of gravity shifting steadily lower. The 20-day range is 5385–5855; the current settlement of 5419 sits at the 8.1% percentile of that range, i.e., near the lower bound.

Volatility Statistics: ATR14 is 97.64 (approximately 1.8% of the settlement price, on an intraday full-range basis); RV20 is 42.7%, indicating that 20-day realized volatility is at an elevated level. In the absence of seasonal win rates and median move data, no quantitative judgment is made on historical directional bias for October; the directional conclusion remains anchored to Section I's price structure and positioning structure.

VII. Scenario Analysis

Base Case (60% probability): Bearish. Trigger condition: price remains in weak consolidation near the 20-day range lower bound of 5385, and main contract open interest no longer expands above 15,831 lots. Target prices in sequence: 5385 (20-day lower bound, coinciding with the 09-29 low) and 5230 (pre-set strategy target). Corresponding operation: execute the short strategy per Section VIII with a stop-loss at 5525. Core rationale aligns with Section I — the 20-day channel position is only at 8.1%, the 5-day change is -1.78%, and open interest has declined 886 lots from the one-year 99th percentile; a rally on declining open interest does not constitute an active buying signal.

Bullish Case (25% probability): Trigger condition: settlement price effectively breaks above the 20-day channel upper bound of 5855, OR open interest re-expands above 15,831 and price breaks the pivot R1 at 5449.33. Target prices: look toward 5494 (upper edge of the recent two-week dense band) and further challenge 5855. Corresponding operation: if either failure condition is met, close the short position and do not reverse to long; wait for confirmation signals within the 5494–5855 range.

Bearish Case (15% probability): Trigger condition: price effectively breaks below 5385 (20-day lower bound and 09-29 low), accompanied by open interest continuing to decline from 15,831 or turning into increasing open interest on declining prices. Target prices: look toward 5230 and lower. Corresponding operation: after a break below 5385, maintain the short position and trail the stop-loss to near the entry cost, with the target held at 5230.

The three scenario probabilities sum to 100%. The base case direction is consistent with Section I's bearish conclusion. The failure conditions are written identically to Section I: settlement price effectively breaks above the 20-day channel upper bound of 5855, OR open interest re-expands above 15,831 and price breaks pivot R1 at 5449.33. R1 at 5449.33 and S1 at 5392.33 are each less than half an ATR (approximately 49 points) from the current settlement — they serve as intraday references only and are not independent trade triggers.

VIII. Trading Strategies & Risk Management

Established Strategy (passed risk control validation): Short, entry 5423, stop-loss 5525, target 5230, horizon 1–5 days, reward-to-risk ratio 1:1.9.

Stop-Loss Rationale: The stop-loss at 5525 sits above the recent two-week dense trading band of 5445–5494 and above pivot R1 at 5449.33. If price reaches this level, the weak consolidation structure has been invalidated, consistent with Section I's failure condition of “breaking pivot R1 at 5449.33.” Risk Calculation: Stop distance of 102 points equals 1.04×ATR (ATR14 = 97.643); contract multiplier is 10, so risk per lot is 1,050 CNY (including commissions and slippage); a single-trade risk budget of 6,698 CNY corresponds to a reference maximum of 6 lots.

Position Sizing & Add/Reduce Rules: Build to the reference maximum of 6 lots; do not exceed this cap. If price moves toward 5385 and open interest does not expand above 15,831, hold to the 5230 target. If price repeatedly fails to break effectively below 5385, reduce the position to half the reference maximum. If the settlement price effectively breaks above 5855, OR open interest re-expands above 15,831 and price breaks 5449.33, close the short unconditionally without waiting for the stop-loss level. If neither target nor stop is hit within the 1–5 day horizon, close the position by time stop.

IX. This Week's Data Calendar

At 09:30 Beijing time on 10-14 (21:30 US Eastern on 10-13), China's CPI YoY and PPI YoY will be released. Consensus and prior values are not available; the impact tag covers black metals, base metals, and chemicals, and does not directly point to rapeseed. Given the absence of consensus estimates, no directional forecast is made on this data release — it is flagged solely as an event window for position management.

This report is generated automatically from public quantitative and macro data for research and market tracking only. It does not constitute any investment advice.

Single-name briefs Deep dive

SHFE GoldSHFE.AU 2026-10-09

沪金(SHFE.AU)深度分析报告 | 偏多：黄金与白银比价处于低位 | 2026-10-09

CZCE.RS (Rapeseed) Deep Analysis | Short-Biased Structure at 99th Percentile of Open Interest | 2026-10-09

Today's Risk Map

Single-name briefs Deep dive

Previous briefs

⟠ This month's strategy backtest