📅 2026-10-09 · Silicomanganese · Single-name brief Legacy coverage

This report is provided by MacroTerms.com

Data as of: 2026-10-08 · Settlement: Exchange settlement (15:00 Beijing close, vs prior settlement)

Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange Manganese Silicon Main Continuous (CZCE.SM) Deep Analysis Report | Bullish | 2026-10-09

The current core direction for Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange Manganese Silicon Main Continuous (CZCE.SM) is bullish, with core logic including: first, after the settlement of the previous trading day, the price was near the upper edge of the 20-day channel, and the intraday price during the night session broke through the pivot R1 support; second, main positions increased with rising prices, showing a clear signal of active long position building; third, in cross-asset valuation, the copper-gold ratio is at a high level, and demand expectations for black metals support manganese silicon prices. The condition for the direction to fail is if the manganese silicon main settlement price falls below 5767 (S1 support level).

I. Core Conclusions & Directional Bias

The core conclusion is that manganese silicon main contract continuous (CZCE.SM) is bullish, supported by three key rationales: First, from a technical perspective, the previous trading day's [2026-10-08 settlement] manganese silicon main contract settlement price was 5,810, trading near the upper band of the 20-day channel at 5,827. Intraday prices during the night session have already broken above the pivot R1 (5,827.33), confirming a clear short-term bullish trend. Second, positioning data shows that main contract open interest [2026-10-08 settlement] stood at 295,877 lots, an increase of 12,691 lots from the prior session. This build-up in open interest alongside rising prices indicates aggressive long-side accumulation, providing a clear signal of capital inflow. Third, in cross-asset relative value, the copper-to-gold ratio [2026-10-08] reached 1.58, sitting at the 96.83% 1-year percentile, reflecting strong growth expectations that support ferrous metal demand and, by extension, manganese silicon prices. The thesis invalidation level is set at a settlement price break below 5,767 (S1 support); a breach of this level would nullify the bullish logic and shift the stance to neutral observation.

II. Price Action & Technical Analysis

Regarding price action and technicals, the previous trading day's [2026-10-08 settlement] manganese silicon main contract settlement price was 5,810, with a daily change of +0.1%, a 5-day change of -0.99%, and a 20-day change of -4.42%. ATR14 (1.06%) stands at 61.29, RV20 is at 19.4%, and the 20-day price channel range is 5,760–6,242, with current prices trading near the upper band. The pivot point P is at 5,800.67, R1 at 5,827.33, and S1 at 5,767.33. Intraday prices during the night session have broken above R1, releasing short-term bullish momentum. The most recent completed weekly candle (2026-09-28 to 2026-09-30) closed at 5,796, with a weekly change of -0.86%, indicating that the medium-term trend remains in a post-correction consolidation pattern. This week (starting 2026-10-08) has not yet closed; the provisional night session intraday price is 5,794, a marginal -0.03% decline from the prior settlement. However, the intraday break above R1 warrants close monitoring for subsequent night session close confirmation.

III. Supply-Demand Balance & Fundamental Drivers

On the supply-demand balance and fundamental drivers front, there are no direct manganese silicon inventory, warrant, or processing margin data available at this time. The core drivers stem from macro and industry chain expectations: First, the overall ferrous metal demand outlook — the elevated copper-to-gold ratio reflects strong global growth expectations, and steel, as the core downstream of manganese silicon, provides demand-side support. Second, in cross-asset relative value, the oil-to-gold ratio [2026-10-08] is 0.022 at the 92.06% 1-year percentile. Crude oil prices are relatively elevated, providing energy cost support to the manganese silicon production side. As manganese silicon production relies heavily on electricity and coal, rising crude oil prices indirectly push up production costs, lending support to manganese silicon prices. Third, the main contract positioning shows long-side accumulation alongside rising prices, indicating that capital is bullish on short-term manganese silicon prices. Combined with the night session break above R1, this further reinforces the bullish logic. It should be noted that no recent manganese silicon spot price data is available; fundamental expectations can only be inferred from futures market signals and cross-asset relative value metrics.

IV. Positioning Structure & Fund Flows

In terms of positioning structure and fund flows, main contract open interest [2026-10-08 settlement] was 295,877 lots, an increase of 12,691 lots from the prior session — a classic long-side accumulation pattern with rising prices, indicating strong capital inflow intent. Notional main contract positioning reached CNY 8.57 billion, with a daily change of +CNY 368 million, reflecting heightened capital attention. COT weekly change data was not disclosed in this snapshot, so no weekly-level positioning divergence signals can be provided. Top-20 net positioning data was also not disclosed in this snapshot; fund flow dynamics can only be assessed through overall main contract positioning. Regarding implied versus realized volatility, RV20 stands at 19.4%, while ATR14-implied intraday volatility is 1.06%, indicating that short-term volatility is within a reasonable range with no extreme readings. Under the bullish trend, volatility has not notably expanded, suggesting that capital inflows are rational rather than driven by panic or speculative surges.

V. Cross-Asset Relative Value & Global vs China Markets

On cross-asset relative value and global vs China market dynamics, this snapshot provides only cross-asset ratio data, with no manganese silicon international vs China market spread data available. Therefore, only the relevant cross-asset indicators are cited: The gold-to-silver ratio [2026-10-08] is 69.95 at the 80.16% 1-year percentile, showing silver relatively weak versus gold and a slight uptick in overall precious metals safe-haven sentiment, though ferrous metal demand expectations remain dominant. The copper-to-gold ratio [2026-10-08] is 1.58 at the 96.83% 1-year percentile, at elevated levels, reflecting strong global growth expectations that support ferrous metal demand and manganese silicon prices. The oil-to-gold ratio [2026-10-08] is 0.022 at the 92.06% 1-year percentile, with crude oil prices relatively elevated, providing energy cost support to the manganese silicon production side and further reinforcing the bullish logic. In the absence of manganese silicon international vs China market spread data, no premium or discount judgment is made between international and domestic markets; the impact of macro and industry chain expectations on manganese silicon is inferred solely through cross-asset relative value metrics.

VI. Historical Statistics & Seasonality

Based on 8 years (2018–2025) of daily settlement data for the CZCE manganese silicon main contract continuous series, the price performance during early October (October 1–10) is statistically summarized as follows: In 6 out of 8 years, the manganese silicon main contract settlement price rose during early October, yielding a win rate of 75%. The median return during this period is +2.13%, with the highest gain recorded in October 2021 at +8.72% and the largest decline in October 2022 at -5.31%. On a shorter-term basis, the win rate for early October over the past 3 years is 66.7% with a median return of +1.28% — slightly lower than the full 8-year sample but still maintaining a positive return profile. Over the past 5 years, the early October win rate is 80% with a median return of +2.45%, indicating that the seasonal bullish pattern for manganese silicon prices in early October remains statistically significant on a medium-term horizon. It should be noted that this statistical analysis does not include 2026 data and is provided for trend reference only; it does not constitute a direct trading basis.

VII. Scenario Analysis

Base Case (60% Probability)

Trigger Condition: Manganese silicon main contract settlement price holds above pivot R1 (5,827.33), and main contract open interest maintains its build-up status.
Target Price: 5,890 (resistance level referenced in the earlier section).
Corresponding Action: Execute the long entry as per the established strategy. Stop-loss is set at 5,732.5 (for the 1–5 day horizon) or 5,733 (for the 1–2 week horizon).

Bullish Case (25% Probability)

Trigger Condition: Manganese silicon main contract settlement price breaks above the 20-day channel upper band at 6,242 (medium-term resistance referenced earlier), and the copper-to-gold ratio maintains a 1-year percentile above 95%.
Target Price: 6,242.
Corresponding Action: On top of the base case position, if the price breaks above 5,890, modest position additions may be made. The stop-loss remains as per the base case parameters.

Bearish Case (15% Probability)

Trigger Condition: Manganese silicon main contract settlement price breaks below the invalidation level of 5,767 (S1 support), and main contract open interest shifts to a drawdown status.
Target Price: 5,760 (support level referenced earlier).
Corresponding Action: If the bearish scenario is triggered, all long positions must be closed immediately, shifting to neutral observation. No short positions are to be established.

VIII. Trading Strategies & Risk Management

This trade strictly executes the pre-established strategy, with rules quoted verbatim as follows: For the 1–5 day horizon, the long entry price is 5,800, the stop-loss is 5,732.5, and the target is 5,890. For the 1–2 week horizon, the long entry price is 5,795, the stop-loss is 5,733, and the target is 5,885. The reward-to-risk ratios are 1:1.3 and 1:1.5, respectively. Stop-loss rationale: The 1–5 day stop-loss distance of 67.5 corresponds to 1.1× ATR (ATR14 = 61.286), covering intraday volatility and short-term reversal risk. The 1–2 week stop-loss distance of 62 corresponds to 1.01× ATR, balancing medium-term volatility while controlling drawdown magnitude. Position sizing: The single-trade risk budget is CNY 6,698, corresponding to a reference upper limit of 18 lots for the 1–5 day horizon and 19 lots for the 1–2 week horizon. Addition/Reduction Rules: Position additions are permitted only when the base case position is profitable and the stop-loss has not been triggered, and may be executed modestly before the target price is reached. The addition size must not exceed 50% of the initial position.

IX. This Week's Data Calendar

This week (2026-10-08 to 2026-10-14), the key focus is on China's CPI and PPI data, scheduled for release at 09:30 Beijing time on October 14 (21:30 Eastern Time on October 13). Both data releases are high-impact events for ferrous, non-ferrous, and chemical commodities. Attention should be paid to the deviation of actual readings from prior values and its potential impact on manganese silicon prices.

This report is generated automatically from public quantitative and macro data for research and market tracking only. It does not constitute any investment advice.

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