📅 2026-10-09 · Coke · Single-name brief Legacy coverage

This report is provided by MacroTerms.com

Data as of: 2026-10-08 · Settlement: Exchange settlement (15:00 Beijing close, vs prior settlement)

Coke (DCE.J) In-Depth Analysis Report | Short-side active position building, target 1924 | 2026-10-09

Coke (DCE.J) short-term direction is bearish, with the core driver being active short-side position building to suppress prices and weakening fundamental expectations. As of the 2026-10-08 settlement, the main contract price is 1961.5 yuan/ton, down 10.47% cumulatively over 20 days, sitting at the 10.4% position of the 20-day channel. The night session continued the weakness; although the top 20 seats' net long positions increased by 30 lots to 4506 lots, the main nominal open interest surged by 309 million yuan to 9.32 billion yuan, showing clear signs of active short-side position building. Technically, the price has broken below pivot P1957, with the first support level S1 at 1924; an effective break below would open up downside space. The invalidation condition for the direction is the price re-establishing itself above 1986 (R1) or a volume-backed break above the 2000 level in the night session.

I. Bottom Line & Directional Bias

Coke (DCE.J) has a clear short-term bearish bias. The core logic rests on three points. First, fund flows show active short open interest build: as of the 2026-10-08 settlement, main-contract notional open interest rose to CNY 9.32bn, up CNY 309m on the day, while prices fell 0.18% — a classic open-interest-build decline, indicating shorts are dominating the tape. Second, the technical structure has broken: price has fallen below pivot P1957 and sits at the 10.4% position of the 20-day channel, with first support at S1 1924, a bearish technical setup. Third, fundamentals are weakening: although the night session closed marginally higher, the market remains in a weak zone with a 20-day decline of 10.47%, and the weekly chart (as of 2026-09-30) has already closed lower; this week has not yet closed but is probing lower intraday.

Invalidation conditions: if price re-establishes above 1986 (R1), or the night session breaks above the 2000 level on rising volume, the bearish thesis is falsified and the market would shift to range-bound or modestly bullish. What warrants caution now is that top-20 seat net longs have risen to 4,506 lots, but this cannot offset the momentum of the open-interest-build decline; short covering may trigger a near-term rebound, but the trend remains intact.

II. Price Action & Technical Analysis

As of the 2026-10-08 settlement, the coke main contract settled at CNY 1,961.5/t, down 0.18% on the day, down 0.79% over five days, and down 10.47% cumulatively over 20 days. The night session (10-08 21:05–23:00) opened at 1961.5, with a high of 1985, a low of 1945.5, and a close of 1954 — up 0.05% versus the day session close, but down 0.38% versus the settlement price, showing the night-session rebound lacked conviction. Technically, ATR14 is 51.11 (2.62%) and RV20 is 27%, placing volatility at a moderate level. The 20-day channel spans 1923–2210.5, with the current price at the 10.4% position of the channel, near the support zone. Pivot P is 1957, R1 is 1986, and S1 is 1924; price has broken below pivot P, with first support at S1 1924 — a decisive break would open further downside.

On the weekly chart, the completed week as of 2026-09-30 (2026-09-28–2026-09-30) closed lower, with a weekly change of -0.81%; the current week (from 2026-10-08) has not yet closed and is tentatively at 1953 (-0.28%) — do not draw weekly conclusions from this. The last five settlement days show price retreating from the 09-24 high of 1974.5, falling consecutively from 09-28 to 10-08, with the 09-28 low at 1923 and the 10-08 low at 1928 — lows are gradually moving down. Price is at the lower end of the 20-day channel; a break below 1924 could extend the decline toward the 1900 area. Technically, the bearish trend is clear, and only a rebound above 1986 could reverse it.

III. Supply-Demand Balance & Fundamental Drivers

Coke's fundamental drivers are primarily shaped by demand expectations along the steel industry chain. As of 2026-10-08, coke inventory data was not provided directly, but combined with steel-sector seasonality, the market is in the traditional off-season with relatively soft demand. Over the past 48 hours, there have been no major positive China headlines, and sentiment is bearish. On the macro side, the next-7-day calendar shows CPI and PPI data due on 10-14, which may affect overall ferrous-complex sentiment, though the near-term direct impact on coke is limited. On supply-demand balance, as a key raw material for steelmaking, coke demand is highly correlated with Rebar and Iron Ore.

Overall, fundamental drivers are bearish: demand expectations are weakening, and supply may contract as margins compress, but this is unlikely to reverse the trend in the near term.

IV. Positioning & Fund Flows

Top-20 seat data show that as of 2026-10-08, the coke main contract had net longs of 4,506 lots, up 30 lots on the day. However, main-contract notional open interest rose to CNY 9.32bn, up CNY 309m on the day, while prices fell 0.18% — a clear sign of active short positioning. This open-interest-build decline indicates shorts are dominating the tape; longs added modestly but could not offset the short pressure. On COT weekly change versus price divergence: at the weekly level (as of 2026-09-30), price fell while open interest rose, again indicating active short positioning. The nature of main-contract positioning changes is active short builds, with longs passively cutting or standing aside.

On implied versus realized volatility: ATR14 is 51.11 and RV20 is 27%, a moderate volatility regime. Implied volatility was not provided directly, but the price decline alongside rising open interest may reflect rising market expectations of future volatility. On fund flows, top-20 seat net longs rose, yet main-contract notional open interest surged, indicating intense positioning battles; active short builds may bring a short-term rebound, but the trend is unchanged. Overall, the positioning structure is bearish, with active short builds the main driver, and longs should guard against further downside risk.

V. Cross-Asset & Onshore-Offshore Value

On cross-asset relative value: the gold/silver ratio is 69.95, at the 80.16% 1Y percentile and 26.72% 3Y percentile, showing gold is relatively strong versus silver. The copper/gold ratio is 1.58, at the 96.83% 1Y percentile and 56.61% 3Y percentile, showing copper is relatively strong versus gold. The oil/gold ratio is 0.022, at the 92.06% 1Y percentile and 47.88% 3Y percentile, showing crude is relatively strong versus gold. The crack spread is USD 69.72/bbl, reflecting refining margins. DXY is 102.11, the 10Y yield is 5.23%, VIX is 15.41, GVZ is 22.68, and OVX is 48.4 — indicating a stronger dollar, rising Treasury yields, and moderate market volatility.

On China instrument onshore-offshore premiums: coke is a China-only product with no direct international benchmark, though the ferrous complex as a whole is driven by macro expectations. The elevated copper/gold ratio reflects growth expectations, the elevated oil/gold ratio reflects energy strength versus gold, and the elevated gold/silver ratio signals risk-aversion. These relative-value data indirectly affect ferrous-complex sentiment, but coke itself has no direct onshore-offshore premium. Overall, cross-asset relative value points to a tight macro backdrop — a stronger dollar and rising Treasury yields — which may weigh on commodities broadly, with coke, as a ferrous-complex product, likely affected.

VI. Historical Statistics & Seasonality

Based on 15 years of historical statistics for the 20 trading days from the same date, coke's quarterly performance in early October shows a degree of seasonality. The data show an average gain of +2.17% for this period, a median gain of +0.17%, and up years in 8 of 15. This means that in the historical sample, more than half of years saw gains in this window, with 2016 the strongest at +50.49% and 2021 the weakest at -17.24%.

However, the current market has diverged significantly from historical seasonality. Although the historical data show this period is typically firm, as of 2026-10-08 coke has fallen 10.47% over 20 days, and the weekly chart (as of 2026-09-30) has closed lower. This divergence stems mainly from weakening macro expectations and deteriorating supply-demand dynamics across the ferrous complex. Historical seasonality is background reference only and cannot be used directly as a trading basis. In the absence of major positive catalysts, the current price is more likely to extend its near-term bearish trend than to revert to the historical seasonal mean. Investors should be alert to the rebound risk from seasonal factors, but should not treat them as a sufficient condition for a trend reversal.

VII. Scenario Analysis

Base Case (Probability 60%): Bearish Bias Continues, Testing S1 Support

Core Logic: Active short open interest build on the funding side, technical break below pivot P1957, and weakening demand expectations on the fundamental side. If prices maintain the current weakness, the first support level S1 at 1924 is expected to be tested. Strategy: Maintain short positions; if prices rebound to 1986 (R1) and face resistance, consider adding to shorts. Target: 1876.34. Invalidation: Price re-establishes firmly above 1986 (R1) or the night session breaks through the 2000 level on rising volume.

Bullish Case (Probability 20%): Technical Rebound, Testing R1 Resistance

Trigger: Accelerated short covering, or macro data coming in better than expected. If prices rebound quickly and hold above 1986 (R1), the bearish thesis is invalidated and a technical rebound may begin. Strategy: Close shorts, trial longs with a light position. Target: The 2000 level. Invalidation: After rebounding above 1986, prices break back below it and turn bearish again.

Bearish Case (Probability 20%): Accelerated Decline, Testing the 1900 Round Number

Trigger: Further deterioration on the demand side, or bearish macro data. If prices effectively break below S1 at 1924, the decline may accelerate toward 1900. Strategy: Hold short positions; if 1924 is broken, consider adding to shorts. Target: 1900. Invalidation: Price re-establishes firmly above 1986 (R1) or the night session breaks through the 2000 level on rising volume.

Overall, the base case carries the highest probability and is consistent with the current market structure. Investors should closely watch the break of 1986 (R1) and the 2000 level as key signals for a trend reversal.

VIII. Trading Strategies & Risk Management

Execution Rules for Established Strategy

Entry: 1953
Stop-Loss: 2004.11
Target: 1876.34
Horizon: 1-2w
Risk/Reward: 1:1.5

Stop-Loss Logic & Position Sizing

The stop-loss is set at 2004.11, derived from 1× the ATR14 of 51.11, ensuring it is not easily triggered under normal market volatility. The stop distance is 51.11, corresponding to a risk of CNY 5,221 per lot (including fees and slippage). The single-trade risk budget is CNY 6,697, corresponding to a reference cap of 1 lot. This setup is designed to cap the maximum loss per trade and avoid excessive risk exposure.

Rules for Adding & Cutting Positions

Adding: If prices effectively break below S1 at 1924, consider adding; reference add level is near 1920, with the stop moved up to 1× ATR above the new entry point.
Cutting: If prices rebound to 1986 (R1) and face resistance, cut 50% of the position; the remainder is held to the target.
Closing: Close all positions when the target of 1876.34 is reached or the stop-loss is triggered.

Risk Factors

Current market volatility is moderate (RV20 27%); be alert to gap risk from sudden news. If prices re-establish firmly above 1986 (R1) or the night session breaks through the 2000 level on rising volume, close positions immediately and reassess market direction.

IX. This Week's Data Calendar

All times are Beijing Time; focus on the potential impact of CPI and PPI data on overall sentiment in the black series.

This report is generated automatically from public quantitative and macro data for research and market tracking only. It does not constitute any investment advice.

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