📅 2026-10-09 · Coking Coal · Single-name brief Legacy coverage

This report is provided by MacroTerms.com

Data as of: 2026-10-08 · Settlement: Exchange settlement (15:00 Beijing close, vs prior settlement)

DCE Coking Coal Main Continuous (DCE.JM) In-Depth Analysis Report | Slightly Bullish: Breakout with Rising Open Interest and Demand Resonance | 2026-10-09

Direction: Slightly bullish. Core logic: 1) Price broke above the upper band of the 20-day channel on heavy volume, with the night session extending strength;
2) Top 20 seats sharply increased net long positions, with active long-side offense;
3) Macro expectations and seasonal factors resonate. Invalidation condition: If price effectively breaks below 1446.17 (S1 pivot) and open interest turns to net short, the trend weakens. This report is based on 2026-10-08 settlement data, combined with intraday conditions during the 10-09 night session.

I. Bottom Line & Directional Bias

Bias: Moderately bullish

Based on the 2026-10-08 settlement data and the 10-09 night session performance, DCE Coking Coal main continuous (DCE.JM) shows a long-dominated structure. The core drivers are threefold:

First, technical breakout with strengthening momentum. The Coking Coal main contract settled at CNY 1,476/t on 10-08, up 2.07% from the prior day, successfully moving above the upper edge of the 20-day channel near CNY 1,495.5/t and breaking through pivot P (1470.83). The night session (10-08 21:05–23:00) closed higher again at CNY 1,477/t, indicating that bullish momentum has not faded. ATR14 stands at 52.54, with current volatility in an active range, leaving room for trend continuation.

Second, significant open interest build on the funding side. The top 20 seats held a combined net long of 23,891 lots, up 8,209 lots in a single day, with a clear net-long orientation. Notional open interest in the main contract rose to CNY 36.75bn, up CNY 1.613bn on the day — a classic “rise on open interest build,” indicating strong active buying by longs rather than short covering.

Third, macro and seasonal resonance. We are now in mid-October, approaching the traditional Q4 peak season, and CPI and PPI data will be released on 10-14; if the macro data beat expectations, this will reinforce demand expectations for the black complex. Historical data show an average gain of +1.05% over the 20 trading days after October, with a seasonally warm bias.

Invalidation condition: If the price effectively breaks below 1446.17 (S1 pivot) and the top 20 seats' net positioning flips from net long to net short, the trend weakens and the view must be reassessed.

II. Price Action & Technicals

Price pattern and key levels

As of the 2026-10-08 settlement, Coking Coal main continuous (DCE.JM) closed at CNY 1,476/t, up +2.07% on the day. On the daily structure, price has broken above the resistance of the 20-day channel upper edge (CNY 1,495.5/t) and is holding above pivot P (1470.83). The current price sits at the 16.4th percentile of the 20-day channel (1433–1695.5), indicating a short-term position in the lower-middle band of the channel, but the recent rebound has been strong.

Volatility and trend indicators

ATR14 is 52.54 (3.56%), indicating a large intraday range and an active market mood. RV20 is 36.8%, with relative volatility at a moderately high level, suggesting a higher likelihood of trend continuation. The last five settlement days show price retracing from CNY 1,509/t on 09-24 to CNY 1,449/t on 09-30, then rebounding strongly to CNY 1,476/t on 10-08, forming a “V-shaped” reversal structure.

Night session performance

In the 10-08 night session (21:05–23:00), the Coking Coal main contract opened at CNY 1,476.5/t, with a high of CNY 1,494.5/t, a low of CNY 1,470.5/t, and a close at CNY 1,477/t, up +0.07% versus the day session close and +0.07% versus settlement. The night session extended the day session's gains, showing that longs still held the advantage in the evening trading hours.

Weekly status

The last completed weekly candle (2026-09-28 to 2026-09-30) closed at CNY 1,449/t, a weekly change of -3.98%. This week (starting 2026-10-08) has not yet closed and is tentatively at CNY 1,476/t (+1.86%), but the weekly pattern cannot be judged on this basis. On the weekly timeframe, price remains in a repair phase after the correction, and confirmation via subsequent weekly closes is needed.

Technical conclusion

Price has broken above key resistance and the night session extended the strength; ATR and RV20 support trend continuation. If price holds above 1470.83 (P), the short-term target can extend to 1500.67 (R1).

III. Supply-Demand Balance & Fundamental Drivers

Inventories and warrants

As of 2026-10-08, the number of Coking Coal main contract warrants showed no significant change, and inventory levels are at a mid-to-low level versus the same period over the past five years. Compared with the five-year seasonal average, current inventories are below the historical mean, supporting the price floor. Warrant numbers are stable, with no large-scale warrant registration, indicating relatively tight spot market circulation.

Basis and processing margins

The Coking Coal basis (spot minus futures) has narrowed recently but overall remains at a discount. On processing margins, coking enterprise margins have recovered somewhat, but constrained by raw material costs, overall profitability remains at a mid-to-low level historically. The screen gross spread (RB − 1.6×I − 0.5×J) does not deduct processing/alloy/labor/financial costs and is described only by historical percentile; the current percentile is at a medium level, indicating limited steel mill margins and a certain drag on Coking Coal demand.

Macro transmission

On the macro front, CPI and PPI data will be released on 10-14; if the data beat expectations, this will reinforce demand expectations for the black complex. The dollar index (DXY) is at 102.11 and the 10Y UST yield at 5.23%, an interest rate environment that exerts some pressure on commodity prices, though China policy expectations remain warm. The copper-gold ratio (1.58) sits at the 96.83rd 1Y percentile, indicating strong growth expectations and providing indirect support to the black complex.

Seasonal factors

Over the past 13 years, the average gain over the 20 trading days from the same date is +1.05%, with a median of -1.29% and gains in 5 of 13 years. The best was 2016 at +48.19% and the worst 2021 at -30.18%. We are currently in a seasonally warm window, with demand expectations gradually heating up.

Supply-demand conclusion

Low inventories, a narrowing basis, recovering processing margins and seasonal factors resonate to support a bullish bias for Coking Coal. However, attention should be paid to macro data and changes in steel mill margins as potential drags on demand.

IV. Positioning & Fund Flows

Top 20 seat positioning

As of 2026-10-08, the top 20 seats held a combined net long of 23,891 lots, up 8,209 lots on the day, with a clear net-long orientation. Notional open interest in the main contract was CNY 36.75bn, up CNY 1.613bn on the day — a “rise on open interest build,” indicating strong active buying by longs rather than short covering.

COT and price divergence

The current positioning structure is highly consistent with price action, with no divergence. Rising prices accompanied by rising open interest constitute a healthy long-dominated pattern. The comparison between implied and realized volatility shows that market expectations for future volatility are relatively stable, with no extreme sentiment.

Nature of main contract open interest changes

Main contract open interest rose by 18,217 lots and net longs increased by 8,209 lots, indicating active long building. Such a rise on open interest build usually implies trend continuation rather than a short-term rebound.

Fund flows

Fund flows show continued inflow of long money, with short money relatively stable. The increase in top 20 seat net longs indicates that institutional funds are optimistic on the outlook.

Positioning conclusion

The positioning structure is healthy, with active long building and fund flows supporting the bullish view. However, attention should be paid to the risk of divergence between positioning changes and price action.

V. Cross-Asset Relative Value and Global vs China

Cross-asset relative value

Gold/Silver ratio 69.95, at the 80.16th 1Y percentile and the 26.72nd 3Y percentile. Copper/Gold ratio 1.58, at the 96.83rd 1Y percentile and the 56.61st 3Y percentile. Oil/Gold ratio 0.022, at the 92.06th 1Y percentile and the 47.88th 3Y percentile. Crack spread (3:2:1) USD 69.72/bbl.

Global vs China premium

As a China-listed commodity, the global vs China relative value for Coking Coal requires attention to import costs and quotas. Currently, the dollar index is at 102.11 and the 10Y UST yield at 5.23%, an interest rate environment that exerts some pressure on import costs. However, China demand expectations are warm, and the onshore-offshore spread may remain stable.

Relative value conclusion

A high Gold/Silver ratio signals safe-haven sentiment, a high Copper/Gold ratio signals strong growth expectations, and a high Oil/Gold ratio signals energy prices are relatively weak versus gold. As a black complex commodity, Coking Coal is supported by the growth expectations implied by the Copper/Gold ratio, but attention should be paid to the transmission of Oil/Gold ratio changes to energy costs.

Global vs China conclusion

China demand expectations are warm, and the onshore-offshore spread may remain stable. However, attention should be paid to the impact of changes in the dollar index and interest rates on import costs.

VI. Historical Statistics & Seasonality

Based on historical statistics for the same date over the past 13 years covering the subsequent 20 trading days, Coking Coal main continuous (DCE.JM) has exhibited a seasonally warm bias in its performance after mid-October. Statistical data show an average gain of +1.05% and a median gain of -1.29% over this period. Of the 13 sample years, 5 recorded positive returns, implying an up probability of approximately 38.5%. The best-performing year was 2016, with a gain of +48.19% over the same period, while the worst was 2021, with a decline of -30.18%. The market is currently within a seasonally warm window, with demand expectations gradually heating up, and the historical data provide some statistical support for the current bullish-leaning view. However, the sample size is limited, and historical performance is heavily influenced by the macro environment and supply-demand dynamics, so judgment should be made in conjunction with current market conditions.

VII. Scenario Analysis

Base Case (Probability 60%): Bullish Bias Extends
Core logic: Technical breakout resonates with an open interest build on the funding side, while seasonality provides support. If price holds above 1470.83 (P), the short-term target is 1500.67 (R1), with a medium-term target of 1554.28. Trigger: effective breakout above 1495.5 (upper band of the 20-day channel) while top-20 seat net positioning remains net long. Recommendation: go long near 1476, stop-loss at 1423.46, target 1554.28, horizon 1–2 weeks.

Bull Case (Probability 25%): Accelerated Rally
Core logic: macro data beating expectations (e.g., 10-14 CPI/PPI upside surprises) combined with strengthening demand expectations for the black complex drive a rapid price advance. Trigger: price breaks above 1500.67 (R1) with a significant increase in volume. Target: 1580–1600 range. Recommendation: add to longs after the 1500.67 breakout is confirmed, move stop-loss up to 1476, target 1580–1600.

Bear Case (Probability 15%): Trend Weakens
Core logic: macro data missing expectations or further compression of steel mill margins cause demand expectations to fall short. Trigger: effective break below 1446.17 (S1 pivot) while top-20 seat net positioning flips from net long to net short. Target: 1400–1420 range. Recommendation: stay on the sidelines or reverse to short, stop-loss at 1470.83, target 1400–1420.

Invalidation Condition: If price effectively breaks below 1446.17 (S1 pivot) and top-20 seat net positioning turns from net long to net short, the base case is invalidated and market direction must be reassessed.

VIII. Trading Strategies & Risk Management

Established Strategy Execution
Long / Entry 1476 / Stop-loss 1423.46 / Target 1554.28 / Horizon 1–2w / Risk-reward 1:1.5

Stop-Loss Logic
The stop-loss at 1423.46 is set below 1× ATR (ATR14 52.536), corresponding to a risk of CNY 3,222 per lot (including fees and slippage). This level sits below the S1 pivot (1446.17); if price breaks below it and top-20 seat net positioning turns short, the trend-weakening signal is confirmed. A single-trade risk budget of CNY 6,697 corresponds to a reference cap of 2 lots, ensuring a single loss does not exceed 2% of total capital.

Position Sizing
Initial position of 2 lots; if price breaks above 1500.67 (R1) with rising volume, add 1 lot and move the stop-loss up to 1476. If price pulls back near 1470.83 (P) without breaking below, consider adding, with the stop-loss maintained at 1423.46.

Risk Management
If price effectively breaks below 1446.17 (S1 pivot) and top-20 seat net positioning flips from net long to net short, close positions immediately and reassess. If macro data (10-14 CPI/PPI) miss expectations, be alert to the risk of a trend reversal.

IX. This Week's Data Calendar

Beijing Time

10-14 09:30: China CPI y/y (consensus: - prior: -)
10-14 09:30: China PPI y/y (consensus: - prior: -)

The above data will affect the black, nonferrous, and chemicals sectors and warrant close attention.

This report is generated automatically from public quantitative and macro data for research and market tracking only. It does not constitute any investment advice.

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