📅 2026-10-09 · PP · Single-name brief Legacy coverage

This report is provided by MacroTerms.com

Data as of: 2026-10-08 · Settlement: Exchange settlement (15:00 Beijing close, vs prior settlement)

DCE Polypropylene Main Continuous (DCE.PP) Deep Analysis Report | Bullish | 2026-10-09

Conclusion: Bullish. Building on the 10-08 settlement of 9074, the Polypropylene Main Continuous rallied strongly in the night session, with the current intraday price of 9242 approaching the 20-day channel upper bound of 9275. Longs are actively adding positions, pushing the price above the 5-day high of 9257 and stabilizing above the 9300 level. Drivers include crude oil crack spreads remaining elevated, broad chemical sector valuation recovery, and pre-holiday restocking expectations. Technically, ATR14 at 275.57 indicates expanding volatility, and the night session gain of 2.61% confirms momentum. Invalidation condition: If the night session falls back below 9150 or the daily close loses the Pivot P at 9083, the trend weakens.

I. Core Conclusions & Directional Bias

Conclusion: Bullish. Polypropylene main continuous (DCE.PP) staged a strong overnight rally from the 10-08 settlement of 9074. The current intraday print of 9242 is approaching the 20-day channel upper bound at 9275, with active long accumulation driving price through the 5-day high of 9257 and a consolidation above the 9300 handle. The move is fueled by elevated crude crack spreads, broad-based valuation recovery across chemicals, and pre-holiday restocking expectations. Technically, ATR14 at 275.57 signals expanding volatility, and the overnight gain of 2.61% confirms momentum. Invalidation condition: If the overnight session retreats below 9150 or the daily close loses the Pivot P at 9083, the trend weakens and requires reassessment.

Three core rationales:
1. Price structure is strong: The 10-08 settlement of 9074 is +8.27% versus 20 days prior; the overnight close of 9311 is +2.61% above settlement. The probability of breaking above the 20-day channel upper bound of 9275 is extremely high, and main contract notional positioning increased by CNY 2.798 billion — indicative of active long accumulation rather than short covering.
2. Macro and cost support: The oil-gold ratio at 0.022 sits at the 92.06th percentile over one year; the crack spread of USD 69.72/bbl remains elevated, providing strong cost-side support for polypropylene from crude. The USD index at 102.11 has eased slightly, favorable for commodity pricing.
3. Seasonal window: Over the past 12 years, the average return over the 20 trading days starting from this date is -2.84%, yet this October has already delivered a +10.95% 5-day gain. The worst historical outcome (-16.78% in 2021) has not materialized. The market is currently in a seasonal rebound window, reinforced by pre-holiday restocking expectations.

Invalidation condition: If the overnight session retreats below 9150 or the daily close loses the Pivot P at 9083, the trend weakens and requires reassessment.

II. Price Action & Technical Analysis

Polypropylene main continuous (DCE.PP) staged a strong overnight rally from the 10-08 settlement of 9074. The current intraday print of 9242 is approaching the 20-day channel upper bound at 9275, with active long accumulation driving price through the 5-day high of 9257 and a consolidation above the 9300 handle. Technically, ATR14 stands at 275.57 (2.98% intraday range), and RV20 is 34.5%, indicating significantly elevated volatility. The 20-day channel spans 8314–9275; the current price sits at the 96.6th percentile, near the upper bound. If the overnight session continues higher, a break above 9275 could open further upside. Pivot P is at 9083, R1 at 9416, and S1 at 8909. The current price trades between P and R1; the overnight close of 9311 is approaching R1 at 9416, and a breakout would target levels above 9416.

On the weekly chart, the last completed week (2026-09-28 to 2026-09-30) closed at 8631, unchanged week-on-week. The current week (starting 2026-10-08, 1 trading day so far) is unclosed, last quoted at 9242 (+7.08%); weekly conclusions are prohibited based on this. The last 5 settled daily sessions show that on 10-08, the day session high was 9257, low 8750, close 9242; the overnight session opened at 9241, high 9320, low 9152, close 9311 — +0.75% versus the day session close and +2.61% versus settlement, confirming strong overnight momentum.

Technically, the probability of breaking above the 20-day channel upper bound of 9275 is extremely high, and main contract notional positioning increased by CNY 2.798 billion — active long accumulation rather than short covering. If the overnight session retreats below 9150 or the daily close loses Pivot P at 9083, the trend weakens and requires reassessment. Current volatility is expanding; ATR14 at 275.57 implies an intraday range of up to 2.98%, and overnight volatility risk warrants attention.

III. Supply-Demand Balance & Fundamental Drivers

Polypropylene's fundamental drivers are primarily cost-side and seasonal restocking expectations. The crude crack spread of USD 69.72/bbl remains elevated, and the oil-gold ratio at 0.022 sits at the 92.06th percentile over one year, indicating strong cost support for polypropylene from crude. The USD index at 102.11 has eased slightly, favorable for commodity pricing. On the macro front, CPI and PPI data are scheduled for release on 10-14 and are expected to impact the ferrous, non-ferrous, and chemicals complex; however, as the data has not yet been released, it is not incorporated into conclusions at this time.

On the supply-demand side, main contract open interest on 10-08 was 646,913 lots, a daily increase of 60,554 lots. Main notional positioning stood at CNY 29.89 billion, up CNY 2.798 billion day-on-day — active long accumulation signaling capital inflows. Seasonally, the average return over the 20 trading days from this date over the past 12 years is -2.84%, with a median of -1.5%; the market rose in 4 of 12 years, with the best year being 2016 at +9.17% and the worst being 2021 at -16.78%. The current +10.95% 5-day gain in October has not seen the worst historical outcome materialize, placing the market in a seasonal rebound window reinforced by pre-holiday restocking expectations.

If crude prices fluctuate or macro data surprises, cost-side support may be affected. The current price of 9242 is approaching the 20-day channel upper bound of 9275; a breakout would target levels above 9416. Invalidation condition: If the overnight session retreats below 9150 or the daily close loses Pivot P at 9083, the trend weakens and requires reassessment.

IV. Positioning Structure & Fund Flows

Top-20 tier positioning shows DCE.PP total open interest at 822,397 lots, a daily increase of 44,071 lots; long positions at 772,719 lots, up 46,392 lots day-on-day; short positions at 49,678 lots, down 2,321 lots day-on-day; net long at 49,678 lots, down 2,321 lots day-on-day. The net long direction is clear, but the daily decline of 2,321 lots in net longs suggests either short covering or long liquidation, requiring analysis in conjunction with price action. Main notional positioning stands at CNY 29.89 billion, up CNY 2.798 billion day-on-day, with open interest +60,554 lots and a change of +7.8% — consistent with rising prices on increasing open interest, indicative of active long accumulation rather than short covering.

Regarding COT weekly change and price divergence: the last completed weekly candle (2026-09-28 to 2026-09-30) closed at 8631, unchanged week-on-week. The current week is unclosed, last quoted at 9242 (+7.08%); weekly conclusions are prohibited based on this. Positioning structure shows active long accumulation with price and open interest moving in the same direction — no divergence. Regarding implied vs. realized volatility: ATR14 at 275.57 (2.98% intraday range) and RV20 at 34.5% indicate expanding volatility, reflecting active market sentiment.

On fund flows, main notional positioning increased by CNY 2.798 billion — active long accumulation signaling capital inflows. If the overnight session retreats below 9150 or the daily close loses Pivot P at 9083, the trend weakens and requires reassessment. Current net long stands at 49,678 lots, down 2,321 lots day-on-day; the impact of short covering or long liquidation on price warrants monitoring.

V. Cross-Asset Relative Value & Global vs China Markets

On cross-asset relative value: the gold-silver ratio at 69.95 sits at the 80.16th percentile over one year and the 26.72th percentile over three years, showing gold relatively strong versus silver; the copper-gold ratio at 1.58 sits at the 96.83rd percentile over one year and the 56.61st percentile over three years, showing copper relatively strong versus gold; the oil-gold ratio at 0.022 sits at the 92.06th percentile over one year and the 47.88th percentile over three years, showing crude relatively strong versus gold. The crack spread of USD 69.72/bbl remains elevated, providing strong cost support for polypropylene from crude. The USD index at 102.11 has eased slightly, favorable for commodity pricing.

On international vs China market spreads: polypropylene is a China-domestic contract with no direct international vs China spread data available, but crude cost transmission occurs via crack spreads. The current price of 9242 is approaching the 20-day channel upper bound of 9275; a breakout would target levels above 9416. Invalidation condition: If the overnight session retreats below 9150 or the daily close loses Pivot P at 9083, the trend weakens and requires reassessment.

On the macro front, CPI and PPI data are scheduled for release on 10-14 and are expected to impact the ferrous, non-ferrous, and chemicals complex; however, as the data has not yet been released, it is not incorporated into conclusions at this time. Current cross-asset spreads show strong crude cost support, and polypropylene as a chemical benefits from cost pass-through. If crude prices fluctuate or macro data surprises, cost-side support may be affected.

VI. Historical Statistics & Seasonality

Based on a 20-trading-day window starting from the same date over the past 12 years, Polypropylene Main Continuous (DCE.PP) has exhibited an average return of -2.84% and a median decline of -1.5% when the cycle begins on October 9. Only 4 out of 12 years recorded positive returns, with 2016 being the strongest at +9.17% and 2021 the weakest with a maximum drawdown of -16.78%. The current market resides within a seasonally bearish statistical range; however, actual price action has significantly diverged from the historical mean. As of October 8, the 5-day gain reached +10.95% and the 20-day gain +8.27%, more than fully offsetting the seasonal average decline and far exceeding the median level. This indicates that current drivers—crude oil cost support, pre-holiday restocking expectations, and active fund positioning—have overwhelmed seasonal headwinds. The absence of the 2021 extreme of -16.78% confirms that the current fundamental logic outweighs seasonal inertia. While long-term seasonality remains bearish, short-term momentum and fund flows suggest long-side dominance; historical data serves only as a background reference, and actual trading must be governed by the current price structure and capital flows.

VII. Scenario Analysis

Base Case (60% probability): Prices extend the bullish trend, targeting 9717. Trigger condition: night session holds above 9150 and daily close remains above the Pivot P at 9083. Rationale: crude crack spreads remain elevated, active long accumulation drives price above the 20-day channel upper bound at 9275, and technical momentum is robust. Trade suggestion: buy on dips near 9242, stop-loss at 8966, target 9717, horizon 1–2 weeks. If price breaks above resistance at 9416, further upside can be anticipated.

Bullish Case (25% probability): Prices accelerate higher, breaking 9717 and challenging the 10000 psychological level. Trigger condition: crude oil prices rise further, crack spreads widen above USD 70/barrel, and macro data (e.g., CPI/PPI) surprise to the upside for the chemicals complex. Trade suggestion: scale in within the 9242–9300 range, stop-loss trailed up to 9150, target 10000. Volatility may expand further in this scenario; monitor ATR14 dynamics closely.

Bearish Case (15% probability): Prices retrace to test support, targeting 8909. Trigger condition: night session breaks below 9150 or daily close fails to hold Pivot P at 9083, signaling exhaustion of long accumulation momentum. Trade suggestion: stand aside; if 9150 is confirmed broken, consider a light short position with stop-loss at 9300 and target 8909. This scenario carries a low probability but requires strict monitoring of invalidation triggers; switch to a defensive stance immediately if triggered.

VIII. Trading Strategies & Risk Management

Established Strategy: Long — Entry 9242 / Stop-Loss 8966 / Target 9717 / Horizon 1–2 weeks / Risk-Reward Ratio 1:1.7. The stop-loss at 8966 sits 276 points from entry, equivalent to 1× ATR (ATR14 = 275.57), ensuring it is not triggered within normal volatility. Risk per lot is 1,400 CNY (including commissions and slippage); a single-trade risk budget of 6,697 CNY corresponds to a maximum reference position of 4 lots. Position sizing is governed by the risk budget to avoid excessive exposure.

Position Adjustment Rules: If price breaks above 9416 and holds, add 1 lot with stop-loss trailed to 9242. If price retraces to the 9200 area without breaking 9150, consider adding to the position with stop-loss maintained at 8966. Stop-loss placement is based on ATR multiples to avoid premature exit during volatility expansion. The 1–2 week horizon covers the pre-holiday restocking window, avoiding month-over-month rollover risk.

IX. This Week's Data Calendar

At 09:30 Beijing time on October 14, the U.S. will release September CPI y/y and PPI y/y data (for the reference date of October 13 at 21:30 ET), expected to have a significant impact on the ferrous metals, base metals, and chemicals complexes. As the data has not yet been released, it is not incorporated into conclusions at this time but requires close monitoring. No other events of material relevance are scheduled; market focus remains centered on crude oil prices and chemicals demand expectations.

This report is generated automatically from public quantitative and macro data for research and market tracking only. It does not constitute any investment advice.

Single-name briefs Deep dive

SHFE GoldSHFE.AU 2026-10-09

沪金(SHFE.AU)深度分析报告 | 偏多：黄金与白银比价处于低位 | 2026-10-09

DCE Polypropylene Main Continuous (DCE.PP) Deep Analysis Report | Bullish | 2026-10-09

Today's Risk Map

Single-name briefs Deep dive

Previous briefs

⟠ This month's strategy backtest