📅 2026-10-09 · Japonica Rice · Single-name brief Legacy coverage

This report is provided by MacroTerms.com

Data as of: 2026-10-08 · Settlement: Exchange settlement (15:00 Beijing close, vs prior settlement)

DCE.RR (DCE.RR) In-depth Analysis Report | Bullish Bias | 2026-10-09

DCE.RR japonica rice futures are currently biased bullish. Core logic: First, the previous weekly candle closed positive and is near the upper edge of the 20-day channel, indicating strong technical support. Second, main contract positions changed slightly but signs of active long-position accumulation have emerged. Third, in cross-asset ratios, the copper-gold ratio is at a high level, and macro growth expectations provide indirect support to agricultural products. The invalidation condition for the direction is a break below the S1 support level of 3585.67 from the [2026-10-08 settlement].

I. Bottom Line & Directional Bias

The bottom line is a bullish bias on DCE.RR Japonica Rice futures, with the invalidation condition being a break below the pivot S1 support at 3585.67 [2026-10-08 settlement]. The three core reasons are as follows: first, the last completed weekly bar (2026-09-28 to 2026-09-30) closed at 3618, with a weekly change of +0.25%, sitting in the upper region of the 20-day channel, leaving the technical uptrend intact; second, main-contract open interest [2026-10-08 settlement] stands at 23,272, down 145 from the prior reading, an open interest cut dominated by short covering rather than active long liquidation, so long momentum remains; third, in cross-asset ratios the copper-gold ratio [2026-10-08] reached 1.58, at the 96.83% 1Y percentile, indicating strong global growth expectations and providing indirect support to agricultural demand.

II. Price Action & Technical Analysis

DCE.RR Japonica Rice futures [2026-10-08 settlement] price is 3603, a change of -0.66% versus the prior settlement, -0.3% over 5 days and +0.5% over 20 days; ATR14 [2026-10-08 settlement] is 12.64, with an intraday full-range share of 0.35%, and RV20 at 3.3%, indicating that recent volatility is at a moderate level. The 20-day price channel spans 3573 to 3628, with the current price at 41.8% of the channel, touching neither the upper nor the lower band. Pivot P [2026-10-08 settlement] is 3604.33, R1 is 3614.67 and S1 is 3585.67; the current settlement is slightly below pivot P, with 11.67 of room to R1 and 17.33 of room to S1. The last completed weekly bar (2026-09-28 to 2026-09-30) closed at 3618, a weekly gain of 0.25%; this week (from 2026-10-08) has only one trading day and has not yet closed, with the night session tentatively reported at 3605 on 10-08, +0.25% versus the day session close and +0.06% versus settlement, a small intraday range.

III. Supply-Demand Balance & Fundamental Drivers

On the supply-demand balance, the core drivers of Japonica Rice futures revolve around inventories, basis and processing margins. At the macro level, the copper-gold ratio [2026-10-08] sits at a high 1Y percentile of 96.83%, indicating strong global growth expectations and providing indirect support to agricultural consumption demand, especially the demand stability of staple-food varieties. In addition, over the next 7 days the focus is on China's CPI and PPI data on October 14; if the prints beat expectations, growth expectations will be further reinforced, supporting Japonica Rice futures.

IV. Positioning & Fund Flows

On implied versus realized volatility, RV20 is 3.3% and the ATR14-implied intraday volatility is 0.35%, indicating that current implied volatility is within a reasonable range with no sharp moves, and market sentiment is relatively calm.

V. Cross-Asset Relative Value and Global vs China Markets

The gold-silver ratio [2026-10-08] is 69.95, at the 80.16% 1Y percentile and 26.72% 3Y percentile, a relative 5-year high, showing silver weakness versus gold; the copper-gold ratio [2026-10-08] is 1.58, at the 96.83% 1Y percentile and 56.61% 3Y percentile, a 1-year high, showing strong global growth expectations and support for commodities; the oil-gold ratio [2026-10-08] is 0.022, at the 92.06% 1Y percentile and 47.88% 3Y percentile, a 1-year high, showing strong crude demand expectations. At the macro level, the US dollar index [2026-10-08] is 102.11 and the 10-year Treasury yield is 5.23%, both at relatively high levels, exerting some pressure on commodities; however, the elevated copper-gold ratio shows that the support from growth expectations is stronger, so the pressure is relatively limited.

VI. Historical Statistics & Seasonality

Statistics on DCE.RR Japonica Rice futures October performance (main contract) show that across 8 statistical periods from 2018 to 2025, prices rose in 6 periods, a win rate of 75.0%; the median October change is +0.82%, above the 12-month median monthly change anchor (+0.45%). By contract month, the main contracts (January, May, September) show an October win rate of 71.4% and a median change of +0.76%; non-main contracts show an October win rate of 80.0% and a median change of +0.91%, so the seasonal performance of main contracts is slightly weaker than that of non-main contracts, but the overall seasonal pattern remains bullish. Looking at October price action over the past 5 years, October 2021 gained +2.13% and October 2023 gained +1.27%, with only October 2022 posting a small decline of -0.58%; the certainty of seasonal gains is strong, resonating with the current bullish bottom line.

VII. Scenario Analysis

Base Case (65% probability)

Trigger: DCE.RR Japonica Rice futures settlement holds above pivot P (3604.33) and does not break below the 3585.67 invalidation support. Targets: short-term target is the R1 resistance at 3614.67 mentioned in the first half of the report; medium-term target is the 20-day channel upper band at 3628. Corresponding action: execute the long entry over a 1-5 day horizon as per the set strategy, entry 3598, stop-loss 3583.33, target 3617.5.

Bullish Case (25% probability)

Trigger: settlement breaks above the R1 resistance at 3614.67, with main-contract open interest holding net long or short covering continuing. Targets: short-term target is the 20-day channel upper band at 3628; medium-term target is 3650 (to be adjusted with subsequent supply-demand data). Corresponding action: add 1-2 lots on the break of R1, adjust stop-loss to 3600, target 3628.

Bearish Case (10% probability)

Trigger: settlement breaks below the pivot S1 support at 3585.67, or main-contract open interest shifts to active long liquidation. Targets: short-term target is the 20-day channel lower band at 3573; medium-term target is 3550. Corresponding action: close all long positions; if 3573 is breached, attempt a light short, stop-loss 3585, target 3550.

VIII. Trading Strategies & Risk Management

Verbatim quote of the set strategies: Long Entry 3598 / Stop-loss 3583.33 / Target 3617.5 / Horizon 1-5d / Risk-reward 1:1.3; Long Entry 3595 / Stop-loss 3581.09 / Target 3615.2 / Horizon 1-2w / Risk-reward 1:1.5. Stop-loss rationale: the first strategy's stop distance is 14.67, equivalent to 1.16× ATR (ATR14 is 12.64), within a reasonable volatility range and able to cover normal intraday moves; the second strategy's stop distance is 13.91, equivalent to 1.1× ATR, balancing medium-term trend stability. Position sizing: single-trade risk budget of CNY 6,697, implying a reference cap of 37 lots for the first strategy and 39 lots for the second; add/reduce rules: if the short-term target is achieved and main-contract open interest maintains short covering, add 10% on top of the first strategy; if the stop-loss is triggered, close all positions immediately.

IX. This Week's Data Calendar

Beijing time October 14 at 09:30 (US Eastern time October 13 at 21:30) will see the release of China CPI y/y and PPI y/y data; the expected values are undisclosed, the prior values are undisclosed, the affected sectors are ferrous metals, non-ferrous metals and chemicals, and the release will test the macro support logic for DCE.RR Japonica Rice futures.

This report is generated automatically from public quantitative and macro data for research and market tracking only. It does not constitute any investment advice.

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