I. Bottom Line & Directional Bias
Direction: Modestly bullish (bullish within the range, not a trend breakout).
Three core reasons:
First, volume-price alignment is positive. DCE.V PVC 10-08 settlement price 4904, up 0.18% versus the prior settlement; cumulative +3.04% over 5 days and +0.18% over 20 days. Over the same period, main-contract open interest rose by 13,351 lots to 1,055,915 lots, with the main contract's notional open interest at CNY 259.5 100m, a daily change of +CNY 3.28 100m. This is an open-interest-build rally, characterized as active long positioning rather than a hollow rise driven by short covering.
Second, short-horizon momentum persists. In the 10-08 night session (21:05–23:00), PVC opened at 4908, high 4962, low 4895, close 4940, up 0.51% versus the day session close and up 0.73% versus settlement; the night session high of 4962 has probed the pivot R1 at 4958.33, indicating that marginal buying after settlement remains in place.
Third, positioning is not yet extreme. Price sits at the 46.4th percentile of the 20-day channel of 4673–5194, having neither touched the upper band nor fallen back to the lower band. ATR14 is 124 (2.52% of the settlement price) and RV20 is 29.4%, with volatility in a neutral-to-elevated band, leaving tradable room to the upside.
Direction invalidation: If the settlement price breaks decisively below pivot S1 at 4859.33 and subsequently loses the 20-day channel lower band at 4673, the above bullish thesis is void and the stance shifts to neutral, on the sidelines. On the upside, reference pivot R1 at 4958.33; the distance to the settlement price is about 54 points, less than half an ATR14 (62 points), so it is not an independent trade level but only a momentum observation point.
II. Price Action & Technicals
On a settlement basis, DCE.V PVC 10-08 settlement price 4904, close 4915, up 0.18% versus the prior settlement; cumulative +3.04% over 5 days and +0.18% over 20 days. The last five confirmed settlement daily bars are: 09-24 high 4825 / low 4748 / close 4798; 09-28 high 4832 / low 4748 / close 4773; 09-29 high 4850 / low 4760 / close 4844; 09-30 high 5004 / low 4795 / close 4999; 10-08 high 4946 / low 4847 / close 4915. The 09-30 bar is a high-volume long white candle that pushed price from 4844 to 4999; although 10-08 eased slightly to 4915, it held above 4900 with limited retracement, a strong consolidation pattern.
On volatility, ATR14 is 124, or 2.52% of the settlement price (full intraday range basis); RV20 is 29.4%. Together they point to a neutral-to-elevated volatility regime, with an effective single-day range on the order of 120 points, meaning the 4859–4958 pivot band can be covered within a single trading day, so short-horizon levels must be confirmed on settlement prices rather than intraday prints.
Channel and pivots: the 20-day channel is 4673–5194, and the current settlement price of 4904 sits at the 46.4th percentile of that band, slightly below the midpoint. Pivot P is 4902.67, nearly identical to the settlement price of 4904, indicating price is at the long-short balance center; R1 is 4958.33 and S1 is 4859.33. Since R1 is about 54 points from the settlement price and S1 about 45 points, both less than half an ATR14 (62 points), R1/S1 do not constitute independent trade levels and serve only as observation boundaries for momentum strength.
Weekly basis: the last completed weekly bar ran 2026-09-28 to 2026-09-30, open 4808, high 5004, low 4748, close 4999, a weekly change of +4.19%, a full-bodied white candle closing near the week's high, indicating the last completed week was strong. This week (only 1 trading session from 10-08) has not yet closed; tentatively 4915, -1.68%, and per weekly discipline no weekly-level conclusion is drawn from it.
On the night session, 10-08 night session PVC opened 4908, high 4962, low 4895, close 4940, +0.51% versus the day session close and +0.73% versus settlement; the night session center of gravity shifted higher overall, and the high of 4962 has cleared R1 at 4958.33, modestly strong on a short-horizon basis. Taken together, the technical conclusion is: the settlement price holds above pivot P, the night session extended higher, but R1 overhead and the 20-day channel midpoint form the first resistance, so the bias is bullish with limited room.
III. Supply-Demand Balance & Fundamental Drivers
Processing margins and cost pass-through: the data do not list PVC's own processing margin or the calcium carbide / ethylene cost curves, so no margin-side inference is made. What can be confirmed is that PVC, as a typical coal-chemical and calcium carbide chain product, has costs highly correlated with power, calcium carbide and lanthanite prices, while demand is directly tied to real estate completions, pipe and profile operating rates, and infrastructure orders.
The dollar index (DXY) is 102.12, a daily change of -0.12%. UST yields and the dollar eased in tandem, providing modest support to the valuation of USD-denominated commodities overall, but PVC is priced primarily on domestic demand, so international financial conditions transmit more through sentiment and overall commodity beta than through direct cost or demand shocks.
PPI, as the aggregate gauge of industrial goods prices, will shape market expectations for the overall pricing environment of the chemicals sector and is the macro event window for PVC to watch this week. Since neither the consensus nor the prior value is given, no quantitative judgment on the surprise direction can be made; it is flagged only as an event risk.
Supply-demand conclusion: in the absence of inventory, warrant, basis and processing margin data, fundamentals cannot independently support a directional call. The current bullish conclusion is driven mainly by volume-price and positioning structure, namely the open-interest-build pattern reflected in the 10-08 settlement price of 4904, up 0.18%, cumulative +3.04% over 5 days, and the 13,351-lot increase in main-contract open interest. Should subsequent inventory data show an unexpected build or the basis weaken, this bullish assessment would need to be re-evaluated.
IV. Positioning & Fund Flows
Open interest change: DCE.V PVC main-contract open interest is 1,055,915 lots, up 13,351 lots versus the prior trading day; converted at the settlement price of 4904 and the contract multiplier, the main contract's notional open interest is CNY 259.5 100m, a daily change of +CNY 3.28 100m. Price rose 0.18% on the same day (settlement basis) alongside the open interest increase, so the volume-price relationship is an open-interest-build rally, characterized as active long buying rather than short covering. This is the core structural basis for the current bullish conclusion.
It should be noted that the above notional open interest covers only the main contract and does not represent total capital tied up across the product, so no inference about aggregate market capital can be drawn; it serves only as an observation of fund direction in the main contract.
Volatility structure: ATR14 is 124, or 2.52% of the settlement price; RV20 is 29.4%.
Divergence assessment: by definition, divergence requires sustained opposite movement between price and open interest. Currently price is rising (settlement +0.18%, 5-day +3.04%) alongside an open interest increase (+13,351 lots), a same-direction move that does not constitute divergence but rather an active buying signal. Accordingly, this section records no divergence, only the fact of an open-interest-build rally.
Overall, the positioning structure supports the bullish view: main-contract open interest build, rising price, and a CNY 3.28 100m daily increase in notional open interest all point in the same direction. However, note that the single-day build of 13,351 lots is about 1.26% of the outstanding 1,055,915 lots, a moderate build rather than aggressive adding, so the conviction is set at modestly bullish within the range rather than a trend-following bullish call.
V. Cross-Asset Relative Value and Global vs China Markets
The Gold/Silver ratio stands at 69.95, at the 80.16th percentile over 1 year and the 26.72nd percentile over 3 years. The ratio sits in the upper 1-year percentile band but the lower 3-year percentile band; this describes the current state and does not imply future returns.
The Copper/Gold ratio stands at 1.58, at the 96.83rd percentile over 1 year and the 56.61st percentile over 3 years; the Copper/Gold ratio is at an extremely high 1-year percentile, which by construction points to relatively strong growth expectations and constitutes a mildly positive backdrop for the broader industrial complex valuation environment.
The Oil/Gold ratio stands at 0.022, at the 92.06th percentile over 1 year and the 47.88th percentile over 3 years, likewise in the upper 1-year percentile band.
The Crack spread 3:2:1 stands at USD 69.72/bbl.
Macro cross-check: DXY at 102.11, the 10-year UST yield at 5.23%, VIX at 15.41, GVZ at 22.68, OVX at 48.4. The modest pullback in the dollar and UST yields (DXY -0.12%, ^TNX -0.87%), together with the high percentiles of the Copper/Gold and Oil/Gold ratios, jointly constitute a cross-asset environment that is relatively friendly to industrials.
Transmission conclusion: Cross-asset relative value shows both the Copper/Gold and Oil/Gold ratios at high 1-year percentiles, reflecting a macro backdrop of relatively strong growth and inflation expectations. This provides indirect sentiment support for PVC as a domestically driven chemical product, but does not constitute a direct driver. PVC's direction remains primarily determined by its own price-volume and positioning structure, namely the open-interest-build rally pattern reflected in the 10-08 settlement price of 4,904, the 5-day gain of +3.04%, and the main contract open interest build of 13,351 lots. No signal at the cross-asset level conflicts with the bullish conclusion.
VI. Historical Statistics & Seasonality
This section relies solely on the same-period win rate and median change from the seasonality statistics block; no other samples are introduced.
Judging by the same-period win rate, for the window from early to mid-October, the share of up years for DCE.V PVC is slightly higher than the share of down years; the win rate sits just above 50% but has not reached a zone of significant edge, indicating a mildly bullish seasonality. On the median change, the same-period median move is positive but limited in magnitude, smaller than the current ATR14 (124 points, or 2.52% of the settlement price), indicating that the seasonal push on price is weaker than intraday volatility itself.
Cross-checking the seasonality conclusion against the directional view in Section I: the mildly bullish seasonality is directionally consistent with the current bullish conclusion, but its strength is insufficient to serve as a standalone trading basis and can only act as background corroboration. Should the settlement price break below pivot S1 at 4,859.33 within the seasonal window, historical statistics do not support adding longs against the trend; the invalidation conditions in Section I should apply.
A caveat is warranted: the seasonality statistics are based on same-period historical samples with a limited sample size and do not exclude years of macro event shocks; therefore, the win rate and median change are for reference only and do not constitute a forecast of this week's price path. This week (only 1 trading session since 10-08) has not yet closed; it is tentatively reported at 4,915, -1.68%. Per weekly discipline, no weekly-level conclusion is drawn from this, and the seasonality assessment is likewise not adjusted on this basis.
On balance, the seasonality dimension provides a mildly bullish backdrop, directionally aligned with the bullish conclusion from price-volume and positioning structure, but with a lower weight than the latter.
VII. Scenario Analysis
The three scenarios below sum to a 100% probability; trigger levels follow the pivot and channel definitions already set out in Sections I through V, with no new key levels introduced.
Base case (probability 55%): Bullish within the range, directionally consistent with Section I. Trigger condition: the settlement price holds above pivot P at 4,902.67 and does not effectively break below pivot S1 at 4,859.33; on the upside, pivot R1 at 4,958.33 serves as the momentum watch level, with a break targeting the upper band of the 20-day channel at 5,194. Target price reference: 5,150 (consistent with the established strategy target), corresponding to the upper half of the 20-day channel of 4,673–5,194. Corresponding action: hold longs per the Section VIII strategy, stop-loss at 4,780, horizon 1–5d. The core rationale is identical to Section I, namely the open-interest-build rally pattern of the 10-08 settlement price at 4,904, the cumulative 5-day gain of +3.04%, and the main contract open interest build of 13,351 lots, with the technicals per Section II holding above pivot P and the night session center of gravity shifting higher.
Bull case (probability 25%): Trigger condition: the settlement price effectively breaks above pivot R1 at 4,958.33 and holds, with main contract positioning continuing to increase and price-volume maintaining the open-interest-build rally. Target: the upper band of the 20-day channel at 5,194, with further upside reference above 5,150. Corresponding action: handle per the Section VIII add/trim rules on top of the base position, with no separate entry price; if price approaches the channel upper band at 5,194, note that this level is the 20-day channel boundary and serves as resistance reference, so chasing is not advisable.
Bear case (probability 20%): Trigger condition: the settlement price effectively breaks below pivot S1 at 4,859.33 and subsequently loses the lower band of the 20-day channel at 4,673, i.e., the invalidation condition described in Section I is met. Corresponding action: the bullish logic is invalidated; shift to neutral and stand aside, executing per the Section VIII watch conditions, with no bullish positions held.
Probability allocation note: the base case carries the highest weight because the current price-volume and positioning structure are directionally bullish and price sits at the 46.4th percentile of the 20-day channel, not at an extreme; the bull case requires a confirmed break above R1 at 4,958.33, hence the next probability; the bear case requires consecutive breaks below S1 at 4,859.33 and the channel lower band at 4,673, a higher trigger threshold, hence the lowest probability. All three scenarios are confirmed on the settlement price; intraday prices do not constitute a trigger.
VIII. Trading Strategies & Risk Management
Established strategy (passed risk-control validation, quoted verbatim): Long / Entry 4,915 / Stop-loss 4,780 / Target 5,150 / Horizon 1–5d / Risk-reward 1:1.7.
Stop-loss placement: the stop-loss at 4,780 sits between pivot S1 at 4,859.33 and the lower band of the 20-day channel at 4,673, i.e., placed below the first invalidation level S1 and above the second invalidation level 4,673. The rationale is that Section I defines the invalidation condition as the settlement price effectively breaking below S1 at 4,859.33 and then approaching 4,673; a stop at 4,780 falls between the two defensive lines, allowing exit after S1 is breached but before the channel lower band is lost, thereby avoiding a passive stop near 4,673.
Stop distance and sizing: per the risk conversion, the stop distance is 135, equal to 1.09× ATR (ATR14 124); the contract multiplier is 5, and the risk per lot is CNY 695 (including fees and slippage); a single-trade risk budget of CNY 6,697 corresponds to a reference cap of 9 lots. All figures are quoted directly from the risk conversion and are not independently recalculated.
Add/trim rules: in the base case, hold within the reference cap, horizon 1–5d. If the settlement price effectively breaks above pivot R1 at 4,958.33 and holds, treat per the bull case and adjust within the established position framework, with no separate entry price; if the settlement price effectively breaks below pivot S1 at 4,859.33, trim or exit to the sidelines and await a re-establishment above P at 4,902.67 before re-evaluating.
Watch conditions and re-entry: if the settlement price effectively breaks below S1 at 4,859.33 and further approaches the lower band of the 20-day channel at 4,673, the bullish logic is invalidated; shift to neutral and stand aside with no bullish positions held. The re-entry trigger is the settlement price re-establishing above pivot P at 4,902.67, together with a restoration of the open-interest-build rally structure in price-volume.
Risk note: ATR14 is 124 and RV20 is 29.4%, indicating neutral-to-slightly-high volatility; the effective single-day move is on the order of ~120 points, and the 135-point stop corresponds to ~1.09× ATR, a width matched to current volatility; should volatility expand further, position sizing must be re-validated per risk-control rules.
IX. This Week's Data Calendar
The two items above are the macro event windows within this week that are directly relevant to PVC. As a headline indicator of industrial prices, the PPI release will influence market expectations for the price environment across the chemicals sector. Since neither the consensus nor the prior value is provided, no quantitative judgment on the surprise direction can be made; this is an event-risk flag only.
This report is generated automatically from public quantitative and macro data for research and market tracking only. It does not constitute any investment advice.