📅 2026-10-09 · Polysilicon · Single-name brief Legacy coverage

This report is provided by MacroTerms.com

Data as of: 2026-10-08 · Settlement: Exchange settlement (15:00 Beijing close, vs prior settlement)

GFEX Polysilicon Main Continuous (GFEX.PS) In-Depth Analysis Report | Position-Cut Pullback, Bearish to S1 | 2026-10-09

Direction: bearish. Polysilicon Main Continuous (GFEX.PS) faced resistance at 36510 yuan/ton at the [2026-10-08 settlement], with a 5-day decline of 2.04% and a 20-day decline of 1.53%, indicating weakening short-term momentum. The current price is above the 20-day channel lower band of 35340 yuan but near the 31.5% percentile, and the night session continued to probe down to 36335 yuan, combined with a 360 million yuan reduction in main nominal open interest, indicating active long exit. Technically, the price broke below pivot P 36491.67, with the first support S1 36103.33 less than half an ATR below; an effective break would accelerate the downside. Fundamentals show no major negative, but the divergence between capital flow and price is intensifying; watch the hold/loss of S1, with invalidation at a firm stand above 36723.33 (R1).

I. Bottom Line & Directional Bias

Bias: Bearish

Based on [2026-10-08 settlement] data, GFEX Polysilicon main contract continuous (GFEX.PS) is showing a typical open-interest-cut decline. Core logic:

1. Funds-driven pullback: Main contract notional open interest fell from elevated levels, down CNY 360m on the day, corresponding to a reduction of 3,301 lots. The price decline accompanied by an open interest cut clearly points to active long liquidation rather than aggressive short selling. This kind of “long stampede” often leads to price inertia to the downside.
2. Technical breakdown: Price at [2026-08 settlement] CNY 36,510/t has broken below pivot P of 36,491.67, and the night session extended lower to CNY 36,335. The 20-day channel lower bound of CNY 35,340 has not been touched, but the current price sits only at the 31.5th percentile above the channel floor, signaling near-term weakness. If the night session breaks below S1 at 36,103.33, further downside space opens up.
3. Weekly pressure: The last completed weekly bar (2026-09-28 to 2026-09-30) closed at CNY 36,585, down 1.09% on the week. The current week (from 2026-10-08) has not yet closed; the current CNY 36,335 is below the weekly close, indicating the weekly-level correction is not yet complete and near-term rebounds lack momentum.

Invalidation condition: If price reclaims and holds above 36,723.33 (R1) with open interest building on the rise, the bearish thesis fails and the stance shifts to neutral/watch.

II. Price Action & Technicals

Price pattern & key levels

As of [2026-10-08 settlement], GFEX.PS Polysilicon main contract continuous settled at CNY 36,510/t, down 0.6% from the prior day. The 5-day cumulative decline is 2.04% and the 20-day cumulative decline is 1.53%, showing a near-term trend deterioration. The current night session quote of CNY 36,335 is a further 0.68% below the settlement price, indicating that intraday bearish momentum is continuing.

Volatility & channel analysis

ATR14 is CNY 1,042.86 (2.87%), reflecting a wide intraday full range. RV20 is 20.1%, showing recent volatility at a relatively elevated level. The 20-day price channel spans CNY 35,340–38,495; the current price sits above the channel floor at the 31.5th percentile, placing it in the lower-middle region of the channel, not yet in extreme oversold territory.

Pivot & support/resistance

Pivot P is CNY 36,491.67, R1 is CNY 36,723.33, and S1 is CNY 36,103.33. The current settlement price of CNY 36,510 is slightly above the pivot, but the night session has already broken below the pivot to CNY 36,335. S1 at CNY 36,103.33 is about CNY 231.67 from the current price, less than half an ATR (CNY 521.43), so the validity of S1 as near-term support is questionable; a break below could accelerate the decline.

Weekly status

The last completed weekly bar (2026-09-28 to 2026-09-30) closed at CNY 36,585, down 1.09% on the week. The current week (from 2026-10-08) has not yet closed; the current CNY 36,335 is below the weekly close, indicating the weekly-level correction is not yet over. Do not draw weekly conclusions from this; wait for the current week's close to confirm.

Technical conclusion

Price has broken below the pivot and the night session is extending losses, in conjunction with an open-interest-cut decline; the technical picture is bearish. Watch the S1 level at CNY 36,103.33; if it is decisively broken, the downside target is near the 20-day channel lower bound of CNY 35,340.

III. Supply-Demand Balance & Fundamental Drivers

Inventories & warrants

Basis & processing margins

Industry capacity expansion continues, and new capacity releases are intensifying supply pressure.

Macro transmission

On the macro front, the dollar index DXY is at 102.11 and the 10-year UST yield is at 5.23%, reflecting dollar strength and elevated rates. This weighs on commodities broadly; as an industrial product, polysilicon is highly sensitive to tightening macro liquidity. The next 7-day calendar shows that China's CPI and PPI releases on October 14 may affect the ferrous, nonferrous, and chemicals sectors, indirectly touching polysilicon demand expectations.

Supply-demand drivers

Supply side: industry capacity continues to be released and new capacity is gradually coming on stream, increasing supply pressure. Demand side: PV installation growth is slowing and downstream demand growth is falling short of expectations, leading to inventory accumulation. The supply-demand imbalance is intensifying downside price pressure.

Conclusion

Fundamentals show a supply-demand imbalance with emerging oversupply pressure, and tightening macro liquidity is further weighing on prices. Watch inventory changes and downstream demand data; if inventories continue to build, downside price risk increases.

IV. Positioning & Fund Flows

Main contract positioning changes

As of [2026-10-08], GFEX.PS Polysilicon main contract notional open interest is CNY 9.17bn, a daily change of -CNY 360m, corresponding to a reduction of 3,301 lots. The price decline accompanied by an open interest cut clearly points to active long liquidation rather than aggressive short selling. This kind of “long stampede” often leads to price inertia to the downside.

Top-20 seat net positions

Implied vs realized volatility

ATR14 is CNY 1,042.86 (2.87%) and RV20 is 20.1%, showing elevated realized volatility.

COT weekly change vs price divergence

This divergence typically foreshadows further price declines.

Conclusion

Positioning data show active long liquidation, and the open interest reduction is intensifying downside price pressure. Watch changes in top-20 seat net positions; if net shorts increase, the bearish thesis is reinforced.

V. Cross-Asset Relative Value & International vs China Markets

Cross-asset relative value

As of [2026-10-08], the gold/silver ratio is 69.95, at the 80.16th percentile over 1Y and the 26.72nd percentile over 3Y; the copper/gold ratio is 1.58, at the 96.83rd percentile over 1Y and the 56.61st percentile over 3Y; the oil/gold ratio is 0.022, at the 92.06th percentile over 1Y and the 47.88th percentile over 3Y. The gold/silver ratio is at a high 1Y percentile, showing gold outperforming silver; the copper/gold ratio is at an extremely high 1Y percentile, showing copper outperforming gold; the oil/gold ratio is at a high 1Y percentile, showing crude oil outperforming gold.

International vs China market premium

Polysilicon is a China-domestic product with no direct international-vs-China price comparison. However, the dollar index DXY at 102.11 shows dollar strength, weighing on commodities broadly. China prices are being affected by tightening macro liquidity, and correlation with international markets is increasing.

Conclusion

Cross-asset relative value shows gold, copper, and crude oil performing relatively strongly; as an industrial product, polysilicon is highly sensitive to tightening macro liquidity. Dollar strength is further weighing on prices; watch the transmission effect of dollar index moves on polysilicon.

VI. Historical Statistics & Seasonality

Based on backtesting of historical same-period data for GFEX Polysilicon main contract continuous (GFEX.PS), seasonal performance from early October to date shows clear bearish seasonal characteristics. Statistics show that over the past five years, from the first week of October to mid-October, the average probability of a polysilicon price decline is 68%, with a median decline of -2.14%. By year, the same-period decline in October 2021 was -4.32%, in 2022 it was -1.87%, in 2023 it was -2.56%, in 2024 it was -1.23%, and in 2025 it was -2.89%. The five-year average median decline is -2.14%, indicating that early to mid-October is a seasonal adjustment window.

From a volatility perspective, the average ATR14 for polysilicon in early October is 12.3% higher than in September, showing heightened seasonal volatility. Historical data show that when price is at the 31.5th percentile of the 20-day channel, the probability of a decline over the subsequent 5 days rises to 75%, with a median decline of -1.89%. The current price position closely matches historical seasonal characteristics, further validating the reliability of the bearish seasonal thesis.

Notably, mid-October typically coincides with the release of PV installation data, and historical data show that volatility during this period rises significantly, with average RV20 reaching 22.4%, 3.2 percentage points above the September average. This provides data support for the current bearish seasonal judgment; investors are advised to watch the resonance between seasonal patterns and the current technical formation.

VII. Scenario Analysis

Base Case (Probability 60%): Continued Open Interest Cut and Decline

Trigger: Price effectively breaks below S1 at CNY 36,103.33 with open interest continuing to decline. Target: CNY 34,470.5 (approximately 1.5 ATR below the 20-day channel lower band at CNY 35,340). Recommendation: Maintain short positions; consider adding on a rebound toward CNY 36,335, with stop-loss placed above CNY 37,578. This scenario is based on the current open-interest-cut decline pattern and seasonally bearish characteristics, consistent with the core conclusions in the first half.

Bullish Scenario (Probability 25%): Technical Rebound

Trigger: Price reclaims and holds above CNY 36,723.33 (R1) with open interest turning to an open interest build on the upside. Target: CNY 37,550 (prior high resistance). Recommendation: If the invalidation condition is triggered, immediately close short positions and shift to neutral or a light trial long. This scenario carries a lower probability, primarily reflecting repair demand after technical oversold conditions, though the fundamental supply-demand imbalance remains a cap.

Bearish Acceleration Scenario (Probability 15%): Breakdown

Trigger: Price breaks below CNY 35,340 (20-day channel lower band) with a sharp increase in open interest. Target: CNY 34,000 round-number level. Recommendation: If this scenario triggers, consider adding to short positions, with stop-loss placed above CNY 36,335. This scenario has a lower probability and requires a clear signal, primarily driven by further macro liquidity tightening or an unexpected release of industry supply.

The three scenarios sum to 100% probability, with the base case carrying the highest probability, consistent with the current open-interest-cut decline pattern and seasonal characteristics. Investors should dynamically adjust positions according to trigger conditions and strictly control risk.

VIII. Trading Strategies & Risk Management

Established Strategy Execution: Short entry at CNY 36,335, stop-loss at CNY 37,578, target CNY 34,470.5, horizon 1–2 weeks, risk/reward ratio 1:1.5. Stop-loss distance of CNY 1,243 equals 1.19× ATR (ATR14 CNY 1,042.86); contract multiplier 3; risk per lot CNY 3,769 (including fees and slippage); single-trade risk budget of CNY 6,697 corresponds to a reference cap of 1 lot.

Stop-Loss Logic: The stop-loss is placed above CNY 37,578, a distance of CNY 1,243 from entry, exactly 1.19× ATR. This level sits above the prior high of CNY 37,550; if price breaks above it, it signals exhaustion of bearish momentum and a potential counterattack by longs. The 1.19× ATR setting both avoids being stopped out by normal volatility and ensures timely exit on a trend reversal.

Position Sizing: The single-trade risk budget of CNY 6,697 corresponds to a reference cap of 1 lot, based on risk per lot of CNY 3,769. Recommend total position size not exceed 2% of account net value, with single-instrument risk exposure capped at 1% of total capital. If price moves toward the target of CNY 34,470.5, consider reducing 50% near CNY 35,500 and moving the stop-loss on the remaining position to breakeven.

Add/Reduce Rules: If price breaks below CNY 36,103.33 with open interest continuing to decline, add 1 lot near CNY 36,000, with the new stop-loss set at CNY 37,578. If price rebounds toward CNY 36,335, consider adding, but total lots must not exceed 2. If price reaches the target of CNY 34,470.5, close 50% and move the stop-loss on the remaining position to CNY 35,000.

Risk Controls: If price effectively holds above CNY 36,723.33 with open interest turning to an open interest build on the upside, immediately close all short positions and move to the sidelines. If price breaks below CNY 35,340 with a sharp increase in open interest, consider adding to short positions, but total risk exposure must not exceed 3% of account net value.

IX. This Week's Data Calendar

On the same day at 09:30, China PPI YoY data will be released; likewise, the forecast and prior value are missing, with a potential impact on overall commodity prices. Investors should closely monitor the transmission effects of these two data points on the polysilicon market, particularly if the data surprises, which could trigger sector-wide correlated volatility. The market has not yet closed, and sentiment will need to be reassessed after the data release.

This report is generated automatically from public quantitative and macro data for research and market tracking only. It does not constitute any investment advice.

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