📅 2026-10-09 · INE Crude · Single-name brief Legacy coverage

This report is provided by MacroTerms.com

Data as of: 2026-10-08 · Settlement: Exchange settlement (15:00 Beijing close, vs prior settlement)

Crude Oil (INE.SC) In-depth Analysis Report | Night session gives back gains after position-added rally; bullish but beware high-level volatility | 2026-10-09

Direction conclusion: bullish. SC2611 on [10-08 settlement] closed at 758.5, settled at 737.4, up +8.96% versus previous settlement, +10.23% over 5 days and +9.4% over 20 days; main-contract open interest 27069 lots (+2091), notional open interest daily change +1.586 billion yuan, indicating a position-added rally with active longs. EIA distillate inventories are -12.0% versus the five-year seasonal average and gasoline -6.3%; crack spread 69.72 USD/barrel; oil-gold ratio 0.022 at the 92.06% percentile of 1Y, all pointing to tight demand. However, the 10-08 night session closed at 732.8, -0.62% versus settlement and -3.39% versus the day-session close, while the 20-day channel position is only 38.1%, with clear resistance overhead at 783.27 (R1), so chasing highs carries high risk. Direction invalidation conditions: SC2611 settlement breaks below 716.87 (S1) or the 700 round-number level, or OVX falls rapidly below 40 with open interest shrinking in tandem.

I. Bottom Line & Directional Bias

Direction: moderately bullish. Three core reasons: first, price and open interest are rising in tandem — SC2611 [10-08 settlement] settled at 737.4 and closed at 734.1, +8.96% versus the prior settlement, with main-contract open interest at 27,069 lots (+2,091), main-contract notional open interest at RMB 20.53bn, up RMB 1.586bn on the day; this is an open-interest build rally led by longs, not short covering. Second, product inventories are drawing sharply: EIA distillate stocks of 105,138 thousand barrels (as of 2026-10-02) are -12.0% versus the five-year seasonal average, gasoline stocks are -6.3% versus the five-year seasonal average, the 3:2:1 crack spread reached USD 69.72/bbl [10-08], and refinery utilization is 92.7%, with the demand side pulling crude. Third, on the cross-asset side the oil/gold ratio at 0.022 sits at the 92.06th percentile of 1Y and the copper/gold ratio at 1.58 at the 96.83rd percentile of 1Y, with growth and inflation expectations aligned in support of commodities.

But two constraints must be acknowledged: one, on the 10-08 night session SC2611 closed at 732.8, -0.62% versus settlement and -3.39% versus the day session close, with profit-taking emerging at highs; two, the 20-day channel position is only 38.1%, price has yet to move into the upper half of the channel, and 783.27 (R1) overhead is the first resistance.

Direction-invalidation conditions: SC2611 settlement breaks below 716.87 (pivot S1) or the 700 round-number level, or OVX falls back below 40 with main-contract open interest shrinking in tandem.

The trigger point this issue is positioning at the 5th percentile of the past year; open-interest-build signals carry greater elasticity off a low base, but this also implies thin liquidity and amplified volatility, so position management takes priority over directional judgment.

II. Price Action & Technicals

SC2611 [10-08 settlement] settled at 737.4 and closed at 758.5, +8.96% versus the prior settlement, +10.23% over 5 days, +9.4% over 20 days. The 20-day channel is 665.4–910, with the current level at the 38.1% position of the channel; i.e., although the short-term rally is sharp, price remains in the lower part of the 20-day range, indicating the prior decline has not yet been fully retraced. ATR14 is 57.51, or 7.58% of price (full intraday range), and RV20 is 78.1%; volatility is elevated, with single-day swings above 5% within the normal range, so stop-losses and position sizing should be set on this scale.

Pivot system: P 741.63, R1 783.27, S1 716.87. The current price of 758.5 sits about 17 points above P, a gap of less than half an ATR (about 28.8 points), so P itself does not constitute an effective trading level; R1 at 783.27 is about 24.8 points from spot, also less than half an ATR, and serves as resistance reference rather than an entry basis; S1 at 716.87 is about 41.6 points from spot, close to one ATR, and is therefore meaningful.

Last five confirmed settlement daily closes: 09-24 close 743.5, 09-28 close 727.3, 09-29 close 711.9, 09-30 close 711, 10-08 close 758.5. The 09-30 settlement of 711 marks the recent low zone; the 10-08 single-day jump of 47.5 points is an event-driven gap higher, and the lower edge of the gap (between the ~716.7 high and the 711 settlement) forms a short-term support reference.

Weekly basis: the last completed weekly candle is 2026-09-28–09-30, open 741.4, high 750.9, low 674.7, close 711, weekly change -4.37%; i.e., the last completed weekly candle is bearish and closed near the week's low. This week (only one trading session from 10-08) is not yet complete; the provisional reading of 758.5 does not constitute a weekly conclusion.

Night session basis: SC2611 traded the 10-08 21:05–10-09 02:30 night session open 768.8, high 769.4, low 723.4, close 732.8, -0.62% versus settlement and -3.39% versus the day session close; the night session rallied then faded, with short-term momentum weakening. For international comparison, BZ=F [10-07 settlement] settled at 100.2, 1D -0.38%, 5D +2.21%, 20D +3.19%, with the 20-day channel 93.68–105.07 at the 57.2% position; the Asian session printed 103.71 at 10-09 06:50 (+3.5% versus settlement), with the international market firming in the Asian morning, diverging from the SC night-session fade and requiring validation at the day session open.

III. Supply-Demand Balance & Fundamental Drivers

Inventory side (as of 2026-10-02): EIA crude stocks at 424,134 thousand barrels, weekly change -3,186 thousand barrels, four-week cumulative +65 thousand barrels, +0.2% versus the five-year seasonal average — i.e., crude is broadly neutral, drawing on the week but roughly flat on the month. Product inventories are clearly tight: gasoline stocks at 204,744 thousand barrels, weekly change +382 thousand barrels, four-week cumulative -2,194 thousand barrels, -6.3% versus the five-year seasonal average; distillate stocks at 105,138 thousand barrels, weekly change -42 thousand barrels, four-week cumulative -1,136 thousand barrels, -12.0% versus the five-year seasonal average. Low distillate inventories are the hardest fundamental support this round, with the transmission path: distillate draw → refineries maintain high utilization → rigid crude feedstock demand → crude build pressure absorbed downstream. US refinery utilization at 92.7% is elevated, confirming this transmission chain.

Supply side: Baker Hughes US oil rigs at 455 (as of 2026-09-25), weekly change +3 rigs, +31 rigs year-on-year. The year-on-year rise in rig counts implies a medium-term tendency toward incremental US shale supply, but the single-week +3 rig move is limited and there is a lag from rigs to output, so it does not constitute a near-term supply shock.

The 3:2:1 crack spread is USD 69.72/bbl [10-08], in the high range; refining economics are favorable, providing a positive incentive for crude purchases — the key intermediate variable through which low product inventories transmit to crude prices.

Macro transmission: DXY at 102.11 (-0.12%) [10-08], the dollar slightly weaker, a mild tailwind for USD-denominated crude; the US 10-year Treasury yield at 5.23% (-0.87%) [10-08], with rates easing from highs and the headwind marginally abating. However, note that the absolute rate level remains above 5%, so the drag on aggregate demand has not been removed; macro support for crude is a marginal improvement rather than a trend reversal.

Seasonal backdrop: over the past 8 years, the same-date 20-trading-day average return is -3.79% with a median of -1.67%, up in 3 of 8 years, best in 2019 at +1.94% and worst in 2018 at -14.39%. The sample is limited; this is background reference only and does not constitute a directional basis.

Overall, the fundamentals show a “crude neutral, products tight, refineries running hard” structure — supportive of a bullish bias but lacking a strong driver from a large crude draw, with price elasticity coming more from products and crack spreads.

IV. Positioning Structure & Fund Flows

Main contract positioning: SC2611 main contract open interest 27,069 lots, daily change +2,091 lots; main contract notional positioning CNY 20.53 bn, daily change +CNY 1.586 bn. Combined with the day's +8.96% gain, price and open interest rose together, indicating an open interest build led by active long accumulation rather than short covering or a short squeeze. This is critical for directional judgment: rising prices on an open interest build means new capital is willing to establish positions above 750, and bullish conviction is validated by fund flows.

The trigger condition this issue is that open interest sits at the 5th percentile of the past year, i.e., the current open interest base is at an extremely low level. On such a low base, the absolute increment of +2,091 lots is not large, but the relative increase is significant, amplifying the price impact of marginal capital; at the same time, low open interest implies insufficient market depth, heightened price sensitivity to one-sided flows, and a simultaneous rise in two-way volatility risk.

Volatility structure: OVX (WTI implied volatility) 48.4 [10-08], 1D -0.21 pts, 1Y percentile 41%; SC's own RV20 is 78.1%, with ATR14 at 7.58% of price. Implied volatility sits slightly below the 1Y median (41st percentile), while realized volatility is as high as 78.1%; IV is markedly below RV, implying that the options market has underpriced event risk and optionality is relatively cheap. For directional judgment, this structure means the market has not fully priced upside risk via options; if prices continue higher, the volatility leg has room to catch up, potentially amplifying futures gains. Conversely, if prices retreat, protection costs are low in a low-IV environment, and longs can hedge with options rather than cutting positions.

Note that OVX fell slightly by 0.21 pts on the day, consistent with the -3.39% pullback in SC's night session, suggesting short-term sentiment has cooled somewhat. Positioning and volatility must be jointly validated in the next day session: if open interest continues to rise and price holds firmly above 737.4, the rising-on-build logic remains intact; if open interest shrinks while price falls, the funding foundation of this rally weakens.

V. Cross-Asset Relative Value & Global vs China Markets

Cross-asset relative value (as-of 2026-10-08): Oil/Gold ratio 0.022, 1Y percentile 92.06%, 3Y percentile 47.88%, meaning crude is in a high percentile versus gold over the past year—crude is relatively strong versus gold—but only mid-range on a three-year view, indicating this strength has formed mainly within the past year and has not yet become a long-term extreme. Copper/Gold ratio 1.58, 1Y percentile 96.83%, 3Y percentile 56.61%, with copper at an extremely high one-year percentile versus gold, reflecting strong growth expectations, aligned with crude's demand-side logic. Gold/Silver ratio 69.95, 1Y percentile 80.16%, 3Y percentile 26.72%, with silver relatively strong on a three-year horizon but relatively weak on a one-year horizon; this has no direct transmission to crude and serves only as a risk-appetite backdrop.

The 3:2:1 crack spread is 69.72 USD/bbl [10-08], the core ratio linking crude and refined products; its elevated level means downstream products are strong relative to crude, refinery margins support crude procurement, and it is direct ratio-based evidence for the current bullish crude thesis.

Global vs China relative value: INE.SC crude vs BZ=F, after China tax adjustment the premium is +8.52% [10-08], versus +4.68% five days earlier; the premium widened by 3.84 percentage points over five trading days. This is a comparable pair, where a positive value indicates China prices are relatively expensive versus the international market and the import window tends to open. The rapid premium expansion reflects, on one hand, that China's SC gain on 10-08 (+8.96%) significantly outpaced Brent's performance over the same period, and on the other hand, it signals that the onshore-offshore spread is already elevated; if the international market does not follow, SC faces convergence pressure versus international prices.

International market reference: BZ=F [10-07 settlement] settled at 100.2, 20-day channel 93.68–105.07, position 57.2%, 52-week range 59.17–105.07; in the Asian session on 10-09 at 06:50 it was quoted at 103.71, +3.5% versus settlement, indicating strength in the international market during the Asian morning. If this strength extends into the European and US sessions, it will partially repair SC's premium versus the international market; if the international market falls, SC's premium convergence pressure will translate directly into a price pullback.

Macro relative-value backdrop: DXY 102.11 (-0.12%), 10Y 5.23% (-0.87%), VIX 15.41 (1Y percentile 18%), GVZ 22.68 (1Y percentile 12%) [10-08]. Risk-appetite indicators are at low levels and the broader market is in a low-volatility regime, while crude's own RV20 is as high as 78.1%; crude is currently the most volatility-concentrated instrument, an idiosyncratic move at the cross-asset level, with direction driven more by its own supply-demand and positioning.

VI. Historical Statistics & Seasonality

The seasonality block (same-date 20 trading days over the past 8 years) shows: average return -3.79%, median -1.67%, up years 3/8, best 2019 +1.94%, worst 2018 -14.39%. The sample's win rate is only 37.5% and the median is negative, meaning crude's distribution from early October over 20 trading days has historically been bearish, with the left tail (2018 -14.39%) far thicker than the right tail (2019 +1.94%), i.e., a negatively skewed return distribution.

Two calibration constraints must be stated clearly: first, the sample is only 8 years, statistical power is limited, and it is insufficient to serve as a standalone directional basis—it is background reference only; second, this statistic conflicts directionally with the bullish conclusion in Section I, and the treatment is not to let seasonality override fundamentals and fund flows, but to convert it into position-sizing and stop-loss constraints—i.e., within a seasonally bearish window, long exposure should be below normal levels and stop-loss discipline should be tighter, avoiding excessive left-tail risk in a negatively skewed distribution.

Combining the volatility metrics from Section II (ATR14 57.51, 7.58% of price; RV20 78.1%), the seasonal median of -1.67% is less than half an ATR and falls within the normal volatility range; however, the worst-year -14.39% exceeds two ATRs, indicating that tail risk in this window is significantly larger than central-tendency risk. The practical implication of seasonality for this report is therefore: at the central-tendency level it does not veto direction, but at the tail level it demands stop-loss discipline first.

VII. Scenario Analysis

Base case (probability 55%): bullish bias persists, grinding higher. Trigger: SC2611 day-session open interest continues to rise from 27,069 lots, and the settlement holds firmly above 737.4 (10-08 settlement); international market BZ=F Asian-session strength (10-09 06:50 at 103.71, +3.5% above the 10-07 settlement of 100.2) extends into the European and US sessions. Targets: first target 783.27 (R1), second target the upper half of the 20-day channel. Corresponding action: maintain a bullish bias, size positions per the Section VIII constraints, and trim to realize part of the floating profit near 783.27 (R1); do not chase.

Bull case (probability 25%): breakout acceleration. Trigger: SC2611 settlement decisively above 783.27 (R1) with continued open interest growth, and OVX rebounding from 48.4 (currently 1Y percentile 41%; as noted in Section IV, IV is below RV, leaving room for a volatility catch-up). Targets: upside toward the 20-day channel upper edge around 910, but with step-by-step validation and no preset single-point target. Corresponding action: add only after breakout confirmation, move the stop-loss on the added portion below 783.27 (R1), and raise the stop-loss on existing longs in tandem.

Bear case (probability 20%): premium convergence and night-session give-back extend. Trigger: SC2611 settlement breaks below 716.87 (pivot S1), or international market BZ=F falls, forcing passive convergence of SC's +8.52% premium versus the international market (10-08, +4.68% five days earlier); the 10-08 night session, where SC2611 closed at 732.8, -0.62% versus settlement and -3.39% versus the day-session close, is a leading signal if the give-back extends into the day session. Target: downside toward the 700 round-number level. Corresponding action: cut on a break below 716.87 (S1); if the 700 round-number level breaks, the bullish conclusion is invalidated and shift to neutral.

The three scenarios sum to 100%. The base case is directionally consistent with the bullish conclusion in Section I, with the core rationale being the rising-on-build pattern (main contract open interest 27,069 lots, +2,091; main contract notional positioning CNY 20.53 bn, daily change +CNY 1.586 bn) and product-side destocking (distillate inventories -12.0% versus the five-year seasonal average). The invalidation conditions are the same as in Section I: SC2611 settlement below 716.87 (pivot S1) or the 700 round-number level, or OVX falling below 40 while main contract open interest continues to shrink.

VIII. Trading Strategies & Risk Management

No compliant strategies have passed risk-control validation this issue; therefore, no specific levels are provided for entry, stop-loss, targets, or duration. Only the conditions for staying on the sidelines and the re-entry trigger levels are listed.

Sideline conditions (maintain a wait-and-see stance if any one is met): First, if the SC2611 settlement price fails to hold above 737.4 (10-08 settlement) and main-contract open interest contracts from 270,690 lots, the funding basis for the open-interest-build rally described in Section I weakens, and no position is taken. Second, if the SC2611 settlement price breaks below 716.87 (pivot S1), the invalidation condition in Section I applies, the bullish conclusion fails, and no position is taken. Third, if OVX falls back from 48.4 to below 40 while main-contract open interest also contracts, both volatility and funding conditions weaken, and no position is taken.

Re-entry trigger levels: Both price and open-interest confirmations must be satisfied simultaneously. The price condition is that the SC2611 settlement price reclaims 737.4 (10-08 settlement) and closes above that level; the open-interest condition is that main-contract open interest rebounds from 270,690 lots and the daily change in main-contract notional positions turns positive. Only when both conditions hold can the open-interest-build rally logic be considered re-established. The upside confirmation level is 783.27 (R1); a decisive break above it strengthens the bullish case. The downside defenses are 716.87 (pivot S1) and the 700 round-number level; a break below them voids the current bullish assessment.

Risk constraints: This issue's trigger condition is that open interest sits at the 5th percentile of the past year, market depth is insufficient, price sensitivity to one-directional flows has risen, and two-way volatility risk is amplified in tandem. With RV20 at 78.1% and ATR14 at 7.58% of price, large single-day swings are the norm. Against the backdrop of the seasonal window (up 3/8 over the same period in the past 8 years, median -1.67%, worst -14.39%) and a low open-interest base, position management takes priority over directional judgment. Any engagement must treat 716.87 (S1) as a hard defense; exit immediately upon touching it, and do not add against the trend.

IX. This Week's Data Calendar

Beijing time 10-14 09:30 (US Eastern 10-13 21:30), China CPI YoY, importance HIGH, consensus and prior both not provided, affects black series, nonferrous metals, and chemicals.

Beijing time 10-14 09:30 (US Eastern 10-13 21:30), China PPI YoY, importance HIGH, consensus and prior both not provided, affects black series, nonferrous metals, and chemicals.

The above are all listed crude-related events within the next 7 days, all concentrated in the morning of 10-14. The data do not point directly to crude oil, but transmit to SC through the chemical chain and aggregate demand expectations; watch how SC2611 chooses direction between 737.4 (10-08 settlement) and 716.87 (pivot S1) around the releases.

This report is generated automatically from public quantitative and macro data for research and market tracking only. It does not constitute any investment advice.

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