📅 2026-10-09 · SHFE Silver · Single-name brief Legacy coverage

This report is provided by MacroTerms.com

Data as of: 2026-10-08 · Settlement: Exchange settlement (15:00 Beijing close, vs prior settlement)

Shanghai Silver (SHFE.AG) In-Depth Analysis Report | Bears in Control, Below 14745 Target 14220 | 2026-10-09

The current direction of Shanghai Silver (SHFE.AG) is bearish. The core driver is the effective break below the 20-day low of 14745, with the night session and international markets weakening in tandem, and clear signs of active short positioning increases pressing prices lower. Technically, the price sits at the 4.1% percentile of the lower bound of the 20-day channel; ATR14 shows volatility expanding, and pivot S1 at 14220.33 forms a key short-term support. Fundamentally, COMEX inventories have risen slightly and SHFE warrants have edged down, but this cannot offset the pressure from macro sentiment and capital outflows. Cross-asset ratios show the gold-silver ratio at the 80.16% percentile, with silver underperforming gold. Based on the above quantitative signals, we maintain a bearish view; if the daily close effectively breaks below 14220, the next target is the 14000 level.

I. Bottom Line & Directional Bias

The current directional bias for SHFE Silver (SHFE.AG) is clearly bearish. The core logic rests on three points: first, the price structure has broken down, with the 10-08 settlement price of CNY 14,412 effectively breaking below the 20-day low of CNY 14,745, and the night session extending the decline, confirming the establishment of a downtrend; second, fund flows show active short open interest build, with main contract notional holdings increasing by CNY 249.6m, corresponding to an open interest build of 11,546 lots, indicating the decline was driven by active short selling rather than long stop-losses; third, in cross-asset relative value, the gold/silver ratio sits at the 80.16th percentile, with silver continuing to underperform gold and lacking sector rotation support.

The invalidation condition for the directional view is set as follows: if the daily closing price re-establishes above CNY 14,745, or if the night session reclaims the pivot P point of CNY 14,508.67 for two consecutive sessions, the bearish thesis is falsified and the stance shifts to neutral/watch. Current market volatility is elevated, with ATR14 at CNY 505.07; investors are advised to set strict stop-losses and avoid blindly bottom-fishing near key levels.

II. Price Action & Technicals

The SHFE Silver (SHFE.AG) main contract AG2612 settled at CNY 14,412 on 10-08, down 3.46% from the previous day, with a cumulative 5-day decline of 10.84% and a 20-day decline of 7.8%. Price has broken below the 20-day channel lower bound of CNY 14,317 and currently sits at the 4.1st percentile of the channel, indicating short-term weakness. In the night session, from 10-08 21:05 to 10-09 02:30, SHFE Silver opened at CNY 14,365, high CNY 14,501, low CNY 14,286, and closed at CNY 14,413, up a marginal 0.01% versus the day session close but down 1.21% versus the settlement price, indicating the night session remained under pressure.

On technical indicators, ATR14 is CNY 505.07, with an intraday full range of 3.5%, showing heightened market volatility. RV20 is 39.2%, at a relatively high level. The pivot point P is CNY 14,508.67, R1 is CNY 14,700.33, and S1 is CNY 14,220.33. Price currently sits below P and near the S1 support. If price breaks below S1 at CNY 14,220.33, it may probe lower. On the weekly chart, the last completed weekly candle (2026-09-28 to 2026-09-30) closed at CNY 14,980, down 4.35% on the week. The current week has not yet closed, tentatively at CNY 14,412, down 3.79% on the week, but no weekly-level breakout has formed.

III. Supply-Demand Balance & Fundamental Drivers

On supply and demand, COMEX silver registered inventories stand at 102.82 Moz (3,198,062 kg), as of 10-06, up 0.53 Moz on the day, a 0.52% increase, indicating a modest inventory build in the international market. SHFE silver warrants stand at 1,490,404 kg, as of 10-08, down 461 kg on the day, a 0.03% decline; warrants edged lower but the move was limited. Inventory changes have not formed a significant driver; the market is being influenced more by macro sentiment and fund flows.

On macro transmission, the US Dollar Index DXY is at 102.12, down a marginal 0.12%, and the US 10-year Treasury yield TNX is at 5.23%, down 0.87%. Fluctuations in the dollar and rates are pressuring precious metals, but the current impact is relatively mild. International headlines show geopolitical tensions (e.g., escalating US-Iran situation) lifting oil prices, but silver did not follow gold higher and instead continued to fall, indicating silver's safe-haven attribute is weak in the current market environment. In addition, exploration progress by mining companies such as Silver Pony has limited impact on short-term prices; the market is more focused on macro risks and fund flows.

IV. Positioning & Fund Flows

Top-20 seat positioning data shows SHFE Silver (SHFE.AG) total open interest at 309,449 lots, up 10,244 lots on the day; long positions at 251,989 lots, up 7,482 lots; short positions at 57,460 lots, up 2,762 lots. Net positioning is net long 57,460 lots, up 2,762 lots on the day. Although net positioning remains long, the magnitude of the short build is significant, and with prices falling, this indicates clear active short selling. Main contract notional holdings reached CNY 63.72bn, up CNY 249.6m on the day, further confirming active short open interest build.

COT data shows managed money net positions falling from 13,309 lots on 09-22 to 7,614 lots on 09-29, a decline of 5,695 lots, indicating international funds are also cutting positions. On COT crowding, net positions account for 7.11%, at the 38.93rd percentile, a moderate level with no extreme crowding. Implied volatility ^VXSLV is 37.74, above realized volatility of 27.1%; the IV-RV spread is 10.6 vol pts, indicating the options market has priced in elevated event risk, but realized volatility has not risen in tandem, which may signal a bearish market sentiment.

V. Cross-Asset & Onshore-Offshore Value

On cross-asset relative value, the gold/silver ratio (Gold/Silver) is 69.95, at the 80.16th percentile over 1 year and the 26.72nd percentile over 3 years. The gold/silver ratio at the 80.16th percentile indicates silver is underperforming gold, with gold's safe-haven attribute more prominent in the current environment. The copper/gold ratio is 1.58, at the 96.83rd percentile over 1 year, indicating copper is outperforming gold and growth expectations are strong. The oil/gold ratio is 0.022, at the 92.06th percentile over 1 year, with crude oil high relative to gold as geopolitical risk lifts oil prices.

On onshore-offshore relative value, SHFE.AG vs SI=F premium is -0.4% (10-08 data), versus a premium of +2.23% five days earlier. After China tax adjustment, the premium has turned negative, indicating China silver prices are weak relative to the international market and the import window is not open. In the night session, the international market SI=F Asian early session quote was USD 59.622, up a marginal 0.33%, but the China night session remained under pressure; the divergence between international and China markets further confirms China shorts are dominant.

VI. Supply Chain & Seasonal Inventory

Based on historical statistics for the same date over the past 14 years covering the subsequent 20 trading days, SHFE Silver (SHFE.AG) shows divergent performance in early October. The sample covers 2013 to 2026, with an average return of -0.4% and a median return of +2.31%. Across the 14-year sample, there were 8 up years and 6 down years, an up probability of approximately 57.1%. The best historical performance was in 2020, with a gain of +4.38% over the same period; the worst was in 2014, with a decline of -15.51%. The current date is 2026-10-09 and the market has not yet closed, but based on historical seasonality, this period is typically a transition within the “golden September, silver October” window, with some uncertainty on the demand side. Although historical statistics show a slightly higher probability of gains, given the price structure has broken and price is below the 20-day low, seasonal tailwinds may be insufficient to offset the selling pressure from the technical breakdown. Investors should combine current market sentiment and fund flows when referencing seasonal data, rather than relying solely on historical win rates.

VII. Scenario Analysis

Base case: bearish. Probability set at 60%. Core logic is the continuation of the broken price structure and active short open interest build. Trigger condition: daily closing price remains below CNY 14,745, or the night session fails to reclaim the pivot point of CNY 14,508.67 for two consecutive sessions. Target: downside to CNY 14,220.33 (S1 support), and if effectively broken, further down to the CNY 14,000 psychological level. Corresponding action: sell into rallies, with strict stop-losses.

Bullish scenario: reversal. Probability set at 25%. Trigger condition: daily closing price re-establishes above CNY 14,745, or the night session reclaims the pivot point of CNY 14,508.67 for two consecutive sessions. Target: upside to CNY 14,700.33 (R1 resistance), and if broken, further to CNY 15,000. Corresponding action: stay on the sidelines and enter long positions only after a clear reversal signal.

Bearish scenario: acceleration. Probability set at 15%. Trigger condition: price breaks below CNY 14,220.33 with rising volume. Target: downside to CNY 13,800. Corresponding action: hold short positions and consider adding near key support levels.

The market is currently dominated by the base case; watch the two key levels at CNY 14,745 and CNY 14,508.67 closely. If price repeatedly tests these levels, it may signal a move into consolidation, warranting reduced positions or a shift to the sidelines.

VIII. Trading Strategies & Risk Management

No compliant strategy is currently available; investors are advised to stay on the sidelines. Re-entry trigger levels are set as follows: the daily close re-establishes itself firmly above CNY 14,745, or the night session reclaims the 14,508.67 pivot for two consecutive sessions. A break above these key levels would falsify the bearish thesis, suggesting the market may enter a range-bound or reversal phase, at which point long opportunities could be reassessed. Until the trigger conditions are met, blindly bottom-fishing or chasing shorts is not recommended, to avoid unnecessary losses near key levels. Investors should closely monitor market dynamics, particularly night session price action and daily closes, to ensure trading decisions are based on clear technical signals. At the same time, attention should be paid to macro data releases and geopolitical events, as these factors may cause sudden price moves.

IX. This Week's Data Calendar

Beijing time October 14 at 09:30, US October 13 at 21:30, CPI y/y data will be released; expectations and prior values are to be determined, with high impact on the black, nonferrous, and chemicals sectors. On the same day at 09:30, US October 13 at 21:30, PPI y/y data will be released; expectations and prior values are to be determined, also with high impact on the black, nonferrous, and chemicals sectors. Investors should closely watch both releases; if the actual values exceed expectations by ± the threshold, market volatility may ensue.

This report is generated automatically from public quantitative and macro data for research and market tracking only. It does not constitute any investment advice.

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