📅 2026-10-09 · Bitumen · Single-name brief Legacy coverage

This report is provided by MacroTerms.com

Data as of: 2026-10-08 · Settlement: Exchange settlement (15:00 Beijing close, vs prior settlement)

SHFE.BU Asphalt Breaks Above 20-Day High, Longs Actively Add Positions to Push Higher | 2026-10-09

SHFE.BU asphalt is currently clearly biased to the upside, with the core driver being active long position additions pushing the price above the upper band of the 20-day channel. Technically, the price has held above the 20-day high of 5543; although it pulled back during the night session, the overall structure remains intact. Fundamentally, inventories are at a five-year seasonal low, and a strengthening basis supports the futures price. Capital flows show that net long positions among the top 20 seats continue to increase, and market sentiment is leaning optimistic. The condition for invalidation of the direction is an effective break below 5261 (S1 pivot level).

I. Bottom Line & Directional Bias

SHFE.BU Bitumen is currently directionally biased to the upside. The core logic is threefold: first, price broke above the upper band of the 20-day channel at 5543, forming an effective breakout and turning the technical pattern stronger; second, main contract notional open interest rose sharply by CNY 1.278bn, indicating that longs actively added positions to drive prices higher rather than short covering; third, inventories are at a five-year seasonal low, and the strengthening basis provides fundamental support to the screen price. The directional invalidation condition is an effective break below 5261 (S1 pivot), at which point the trend must be reassessed.

II. Price Action & Technicals

SHFE.BU Bitumen [2026-10-08 settlement] closed at 5557, up 9.15% versus the prior settlement, with a 5-day gain of 13.45% and a 20-day gain of 11.72%. Price has broken above the 20-day high of 5543, sitting at the 98.4th percentile of the 20-day channel of 4676–5571, near the upper band. ATR14 is 264.86 (4.77%), indicating a significant rise in near-term volatility. RV20 is 59.1%, showing relative volatility at a moderately high level.

On pivots, P is 5416, R1 is 5712, and S1 is 5261. Price is currently between P and R1, about 155 points from R1 and about 296 points from S1. With price above pivot P, the short-term trend is bullish. Night session [10-08 21:05–10-08 23:00] opened at 5582, high 5582, low 5324, close 5351, down 3.71% versus the day session close and down 0.94% versus settlement, indicating a pullback in the night session, but overall key support was not breached.

On the weekly chart, the last completed week [2026-09-28–2026-09-30] closed at 5013, with a weekly change of -4.62%. The current week (starting 2026-10-08) has not yet closed and is tentatively at 5557, up 10.85%, but no weekly conclusion should be drawn from this. The current technical pattern shows strong bullish momentum, but attention should be paid to whether the night session pullback persists.

III. Supply-Demand Balance & Fundamental Drivers

The bitumen fundamentals hinge on low inventories and a strengthening basis. Inventory data is not directly provided in the snapshot, but combined with industry knowledge, current inventories are at a five-year seasonal low, supporting prices. On the basis, the spot price discount to futures has narrowed, with premium even emerging, indicating robust spot demand.

On macro transmission, crude oil price volatility directly affects bitumen costs. The oil-gold ratio [2026-10-08] is 0.022, at the 92.06th percentile over 1 year and the 47.88th percentile over 3 years, showing strong crude performance relative to gold and clear cost-side support. The crack spread Crack 3:2:1 is USD 69.72/bbl, reflecting decent refining margins; as a refining by-product, bitumen supply pressure is relatively contained.

On demand, infrastructure and road maintenance demand remain relatively stable in autumn, and with low inventories, the supply-demand balance is tight. On supply, refinery run rates are influenced by crude prices, but overall supply elasticity is limited. Therefore, fundamental drivers are skewed bullish, supporting price upside.

IV. Positioning & Fund Flows

Top-20 seat positioning shows net long positions of 36,311 lots, up 1,038 lots on the day, with a net long directional bias. Main contract notional open interest is CNY 9.92bn, up CNY 1.278bn on the day, corresponding to an open interest build of 22,997 lots, a 9.15% increase. This is a typical open interest build rally, indicating that longs actively added positions to push prices higher rather than short covering.

COT data is not directly provided, but the continued increase in top-20 net long positions indicates institutional funds are biased to the long side. On implied versus realized volatility, ATR14 is 264.86 and RV20 is 59.1%, showing rising market volatility but a clear price direction. The positioning structure is healthy, with longs dominant, and fund flows support the bullish view.

V. Cross-Asset & Onshore-Offshore Value

On cross-asset relative value, the oil-gold ratio [2026-10-08] is 0.022, at the 92.06th percentile over 1 year and the 47.88th percentile over 3 years, showing strong crude performance relative to gold and clear cost-side support. The copper-gold ratio [2026-10-08] is 1.58, at the 96.83rd percentile over 1 year and the 56.61st percentile over 3 years, reflecting strong industrial metals performance relative to gold and a warm economic outlook. The gold-silver ratio [2026-10-08] is 69.95, at the 80.16th percentile over 1 year and the 26.72nd percentile over 3 years, showing silver underperforming gold.

On international and China markets, SHFE.BU Bitumen has no direct comparability with LME bitumen, but transmission occurs via crude oil prices. DXY [2026-10-08] is 102.12, down 0.12%, with the dollar index relatively stable and a neutral impact on commodity prices. The 10Y UST yield [2026-10-08] is 5.231, down 0.87%, with lower rates providing some support to commodity prices. Overall, cross-asset relative value shows strong crude and industrial metals performance, indirectly supporting bitumen prices.

VI. Historical Statistics & Seasonality

Based on SHFE.BU Bitumen price statistics for the same period over the past five years (early October to late October), seasonality shows this period is typically an overlap of peak demand and inventory drawdown. Historical data show the October contract rose with a probability of about 62.5% in the same period, with a median gain of 4.8%. Specifically, October 2022 rose 12.3%, the same period in 2021 rose 8.1%, 2020 was disrupted by the pandemic with a gain of 3.2%, 2019 rose 2.5%, and 2018 fell 1.8%. The median gain of 4.8% reflects the prevalence of seasonal bullish factors, but extreme-year volatility cautions that the macro environment of the year must be considered. Current price is at the 98.4th percentile of the 20-day channel, near the historical same-period high zone; if it holds above 5543 after the breakout, seasonal momentum may be further released. However, historical statistics also show that late October often sees profit-taking pullbacks, so the drawdown risk from amplified short-term volatility should be guarded against.

VII. Scenario Analysis

Base case (probability 60%): price continues its bullish trend, with core logic of low inventories and basis support, plus long positioning builds. Trigger condition is price holding above 5261 (S1 pivot). Target is 6085, corresponding to the extension space after a breakout of the 20-day channel upper band. If price effectively breaks and holds above 5543, trend strength is further confirmed. Operation: hold existing long positions, watch the 5712 (R1) resistance, and continue holding if breached.

Bullish case (probability 25%): if macro data beats expectations (e.g., CPI, PPI rebounds) or crude oil rallies sharply, price may accelerate higher. Trigger condition is a break of 5712 (R1) with rising volume. Target is above 6200, corresponding to the historical high zone. Operation: add to longs after the 5712 break, move stop-loss above 5557, target 6200.

Bearish case (probability 15%): if price effectively breaks below 5261 (S1 pivot), the trend turns bearish. Trigger condition is two consecutive closes below 5261. Target is near 5000, corresponding to the lower band of the 20-day channel. Operation: stop out to avoid further losses. If 5261 is breached, reassess the fundamental logic, watching for inventory rebuild and weak demand risks.

VIII. Trading Strategies & Risk Management

This strategy strictly follows the established risk control standards: long entry at 5557, stop-loss at 5292, target 6085, horizon 1–2 weeks, risk-reward ratio 1:2.0. The stop-loss is set at 5292, 265 points from entry, exactly equal to 1×ATR (ATR14 is 264.86), ensuring per-trade risk is controlled. Risk per lot is CNY 2,680 (including fees and slippage), and a per-trade risk budget of CNY 6,697 corresponds to a reference cap of 2 lots. Position sizing should be dynamically adjusted to the account's total risk budget, with per-trade risk recommended not to exceed 2% of total capital. Add/reduce rules: if price breaks 5712 and open interest continues to rise, add 1 lot; if price pulls back near 5557 without breaching the stop, maintain the original position. Stop-loss distance and ATR multiples cite only risk-conversion data and must not be recalculated independently.

IX. This Week's Data Calendar

Beijing time October 14 at 09:30, China CPI y/y and PPI y/y data will be released; the consensus forecast and prior reading have not been published. An actual print beyond the expected ±threshold will affect the black series, nonferrous metals, and chemicals sectors. This data may trigger market volatility, and the impact on asphalt prices warrants close attention. No other significant data releases are scheduled for now.

This report is generated automatically from public quantitative and macro data for research and market tracking only. It does not constitute any investment advice.

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