📅 2026-10-09 · SHFE Nickel · Single-name brief Legacy coverage

This report is provided by MacroTerms.com

Data as of: 2026-10-08 · Settlement: Exchange settlement (15:00 Beijing close, vs prior settlement)

SHFE Nickel (SHFE.NI) In-Depth Analysis Report | Bullish Bias, Possible Rebound After Breaking 20-Day Low | 2026-10-09

The core conclusion for SHFE Nickel (SHFE.NI) is bullish bias, with invalidation conditions being a break below 117670 (S1) or a sharp jump in LME nickel inventories of more than 5000 tons. Key reasons include: first, after breaking the 20-day low, the technicals show a need for repair; second, SHFE warrants have fallen for consecutive sessions, supporting spot sentiment; third, the copper-gold ratio is at a 1-year high, indicating improving growth expectations.

I. Bottom Line & Directional Bias

The bottom line is moderately bullish; the invalidation condition is a break below 117670 (S1) or a single-day jump in LME nickel inventories of more than 5,000 tonnes. Three core reasons: first, SHFE Nickel settled at 118750 on 2026-10-08, breaking below the 20-day low of 120270, and technical oversold-recovery momentum is gradually building; second, SHFE nickel warrants stood at 90,558 tonnes as of 2026-10-08, down 277 tonnes from the prior value, and the consecutive decline supports spot sentiment; third, in cross-asset ratios the copper-gold ratio sits at the 96.83rd percentile over one year, indicating improving market expectations for industrial-metals growth, which transmits to nickel as a support.

II. Price Action & Technicals

SHFE Nickel settled at 119550 on 2026-10-08, down 2.47% from the previous trading day; the 5-day change is -5.5% and the 20-day change is -6.43%, leaving prices in a short-term corrective range. ATR14 is 2095, implying an intraday range of 1.76%, indicating a moderate level of price volatility; RV20 is 17.1%, the 20-day channel is 118150-129540, and the current price sits 5.3% above the lower band. The pivot P is 119230, R1 is 120310 and S1 is 117670; the current settlement is slightly above the pivot, with support S1 188 points below the current price, roughly 0.9× ATR, close to effective support. The last completed weekly bar (2026-09-28 to 2026-09-30) closed at 122040, a weekly change of -2.62%; the current week has not yet closed and is provisionally marked at 118750, down 2.7% versus the weekly close.

III. Supply-Demand Balance & Fundamental Drivers

Core supply-demand data show LME nickel inventories at 284,178 tonnes as of 2026-10-07, unchanged on the day, with a cumulative build of 13,254 tonnes over the last 20 periods; inventories are in an uptrend over the past 20 periods but saw no single-day addition. SHFE nickel warrants stood at 90,558 tonnes as of 2026-10-08, down 277 tonnes from 2026-09-30; the consecutive decline in warrants reflects active spot trading or improved destocking demand. On the basis, the SHFE Nickel main contract (M2611) settled at 119550 and closed the night session at 118550, a discount of 1,000 points to the settlement, with the discount narrowing slightly versus earlier, indicating gradually strengthening spot support for futures prices. On processing margins, nickel-iron processing profit is within the industry's normal range, with no extreme losses or gains; the supply-demand balance is broadly in a weak equilibrium, with no clear one-sided bullish or bearish driver.

IV. Positioning & Fund Flows

On positioning structure, the top 20 SHFE SHFE Nickel seats were net short 24,960 lots as of 2026-10-08, up 2388 lots from the prior value; short positions were actively added, consistent with the day's open-interest-build decline, indicating cautious short-term sentiment but no one-sided bearish formation. On main-contract positioning, SHFE Nickel main contract (M2611) open interest was 147,697 lots, up 16,218 lots from the prior value, a large build, with notional open interest reaching 17.54 billion CNY, a daily change of +1.926 billion CNY; the open-interest-build decline shows active short positioning dominating, but combined with the technical oversold condition, shorts may cover and repair. On implied versus realized volatility, current implied volatility is near the 20-day average with no extreme moves, and realized volatility (ATR) is at a moderate level; market sentiment shows no panic or euphoria.

V. Cross-Asset & Onshore-Offshore Value

On cross-asset ratios, the copper-gold ratio stood at 1.58 as of 2026-10-08, at the 96.83rd percentile over one year and near a 1-year high, indicating improving market expectations for industrial-metals growth; copper, as the benchmark industrial metal, transmits its elevated ratio to nickel as a support. The gold-silver ratio is 69.95, at the 80.16th percentile over one year and at a relatively high 1-year level, indicating silver is relatively weak versus gold, providing limited overall support for industrial metals; the oil-gold ratio is 0.022, at the 92.06th percentile over one year and near a 1-year high, indicating a strong crude-gold ratio relationship, reflecting global economic activity possibly in an expansion phase and indirectly supporting industrial-metals demand. On onshore-offshore value, the ratio of SHFE Nickel main contract (M2611) to LME nickel is within a reasonable range, with no significant premium or discount and no obvious import arbitrage space; onshore-offshore linkage is normal.

VI. Historical Statistics & Seasonality

Based on statistics for SHFE Nickel's same-day performance over the next 20 trading days across the past 11 years, the average gain for this period is 0.01%, the median decline is 3.8%, and up years account for 36.36% (4/11); the best historical performance was a 22.59% gain in the same period of 2017, and the worst was a 7.86% decline in the same period of 2024. Note the sample size is limited; this serves only as background reference for short-term price volatility and does not constitute a basis for trend judgment. From a seasonality perspective, the share of up years in this period is low and the median performance is weak, but combined with the current technical oversold-recovery momentum, beware of the risk of divergence between seasonality and fundamentals; do not use this alone as the core basis for trading decisions.

VII. Scenario Analysis

Base Case (60% probability)

Trigger: SHFE Nickel main contract settlement holds above 117670 (S1), and LME nickel inventories show no single-day jump exceeding 5,000 tonnes. Targets: short-term target 120310 (R1), medium-term target 122206.8. Action: execute the long entry per the established strategy, keeping position size within the risk budget.

Bullish Case (25% probability)

Trigger: SHFE Nickel main contract breaks above 120310 (R1) intraday, with LME nickel inventories stable or slightly declining. Targets: 122206.8; if open interest continues to rise after the break, look toward 125000. Action: add to longs on the break of R1, moving the stop-loss below 118500.

Bearish Case (15% probability)

Trigger: SHFE Nickel main contract breaks below 117670 (S1), or LME nickel inventories jump more than 5,000 tonnes in a single day. Targets: around 115000; if open interest rises sharply after the break of S1, look toward 112000. Action: if the invalidation condition triggers, close long positions immediately; light shorts may be tested, with the stop-loss set above 118500.

VIII. Trading Strategies & Risk Management

Verbatim established strategy: long entry 118500 / stop-loss 116195.5 / target 121956.8 / horizon 1-5d / risk-reward 1:1.5; long entry 118750 / stop-loss 116445.5 / target 122206.8 / horizon 1-2w / risk-reward 1:1.5. Stop-loss rationale: the stop distance is 2304.5, corresponding to 1.1× ATR (ATR14 is 2095); this level both covers short-term volatility risk and avoids being triggered out by price noise due to an overly tight stop. Position rules: single-trade risk budget is 6,697 CNY, corresponding to a reference cap of 2 lots, which must not be exceeded; add/reduce rules: if price moves toward the target and open interest continues to rise, add 1 lot after 1,000 points of profit, with total position not exceeding 2 lots.

IX. This Week's Data Calendar

Beijing Time 10-14 09:30 will see the release of China CPI y/y and PPI y/y; expectations not disclosed, prior values not disclosed, affected sectors: black metals, non-ferrous metals, chemicals.

This report is generated automatically from public quantitative and macro data for research and market tracking only. It does not constitute any investment advice.

Single-name briefs Deep dive

SHFE GoldSHFE.AU 2026-10-09

沪金(SHFE.AU)深度分析报告 | 偏多：黄金与白银比价处于低位 | 2026-10-09

SHFE Nickel (SHFE.NI) In-Depth Analysis Report | Bullish Bias, Possible Rebound After Breaking 20-Day Low | 2026-10-09

Today's Risk Map

Single-name briefs Deep dive

Previous briefs

⟠ This month's strategy backtest