📅 2026-10-09 · Rebar · Single-name brief Legacy coverage

This report is provided by MacroTerms.com

Data as of: 2026-10-08 · Settlement: Exchange settlement (15:00 Beijing close, vs prior settlement)

Rebar (SHFE.RB) In-Depth Analysis Report | Broke Below 20-Day Low, Bearish | 2026-10-09

Direction: Bearish. The core logic is that the price effectively broke below the lower band of the 20-day channel, with shorts actively adding positions to push prices down, creating a resonance between technicals and capital flows. Fundamentally, although it is the traditional off-season, inventory pressure has not eased significantly, and the weakening basis has reduced downside support. Technically, the price has lost a key pivot level, and short-term downward momentum is strong. Be alert to short-term disturbances from better-than-expected macro data, but the overall trend remains downward.

I. Bottom Line & Directional Bias

Bias: Bearish.

Core logic chain: price effectively breaks below the lower edge of the 20-day channel → shorts actively build positions to push prices down → technicals and fund flows resonate to the downside.

Three core reasons:
1. Technical breakdown: [10-08 settlement] CNY 3,061/t, below the [10-08 settlement] 20-day low of CNY 3,088/t, and near the lower edge of the 20-day channel at CNY 3,060/t, opening downside room.
2. Fund-driven: main contract notional open interest of CNY 51.63bn, up CNY 2.89bn on the day, alongside a 1.77% price decline — a typical “open-interest-build decline,” indicating active short building rather than passive long liquidation.
3. Supply-demand pressure: inventories at a five-year seasonal high, basis weakening, and the market in the traditional off-season, with demand lacking strong support; spot price weakness is transmitting to the futures curve.

Bias invalidation condition: if price re-establishes above CNY 3,112/t (prior weekly high) or CNY 3,183/t (20-day high), and top-20 seat net longs fall sharply into net short territory, the bearish thesis fails and the market shifts to range-bound or bullish.

II. Price Action & Technicals

Price pattern and key levels

As of [10-08 settlement], the Rebar main contract (M2701) settled at CNY 3,061/t, down 1.77% from the prior session. The recent trend shows persistent weakness, with a 5-day decline of -1.67% and a 20-day decline of -2.58%. Price has broken below the [10-08 settlement] 20-day low of CNY 3,088/t and touched the lower edge of the 20-day channel at CNY 3,060/t, signaling heavy short-term downside pressure.

Technical indicator analysis

Volatility: ATR14 at CNY 29.21/t (0.95%), indicating wide intraday swings and unstable sentiment. RV20 at 10.2%, at a relatively high level, suggesting intensifying volatility.
Pivot levels: pivot P at CNY 3,073.67/t, R1 at CNY 3,087.33/t, S1 at CNY 3,047.33/t. The current price of CNY 3,061/t sits below pivot P and near S1 support. If price probes lower, S1 is the key short-term support; on a rebound, P must be cleared to reverse the downtrend.
Channel position: price is within the 20-day channel of CNY 3,060–3,183/t, currently at the 0.8% position of the channel, near the lower band, indicating short dominance.

Weekly status

The last completed weekly candle (2026-09-28 to 2026-09-30) closed at CNY 3,112/t, with a weekly change of -0.19%. This week (from 2026-10-08) has not yet closed, tentatively at CNY 3,061/t, down -1.64%. The weekly timeframe remains in a corrective phase, with no clear reversal signal.

Night session performance

[10-08 night session] Rebar night session 21:05–23:00: open CNY 3,070/t, high CNY 3,092/t, low CNY 3,066/t, close CNY 3,071/t, +0.33% versus the day session close and -0.29% versus settlement. The night session rebounded modestly, but remains constrained by the day session's downtrend, with limited rebound strength.

Conclusion: technically, price has broken down with strong short momentum; the short-term target points to S1 at CNY 3,047.33/t.

III. Supply-Demand Balance & Fundamental Drivers

Inventories and warrants

Rebar inventories are at a five-year seasonal high, and inventory pressure has not eased significantly. Warrant data is not listed directly, but against the high-inventory backdrop, warrant cancellation pressure may rise, further weighing on futures prices. On the basis, spot prices are weakening and the basis is narrowing, reducing support below the futures curve.

Processing margins

The Rebar paper spread (RB − 1.6×I − 0.5×J) excludes processing/alloy/labor/financing costs and is described only by historical percentile. The current paper spread sits at a historically low percentile, indicating compressed mill margins, but with no large-scale losses yet, so production-cut expectations are weak and supply-side pressure persists.

Demand side

The market is in the traditional off-season, with weak infrastructure and real estate demand driving down apparent Rebar consumption. Macro policy expectations exist, but transmission to actual demand takes time. The next 7-day calendar shows CPI and PPI data due on 10-14; a surprise could cause short-term disruption to the black complex, but the overall demand fundamentals are unchanged.

Supply side

Mills remain highly active, keeping supply-side pressure elevated. Despite margin compression, mills are reluctant to cut output, leading to inventory accumulation. If demand stays subdued, inventory pressure will build further, capping price rebounds.

Conclusion: both supply and demand are under pressure, with high inventories, weak demand, and ample supply; fundamentals do not support a price rebound, reinforcing the bearish thesis.

IV. Positioning & Fund Flows

Top-20 seat positioning

As of [10-08], top-20 seats held a net long of 38,227 lots, up 14,370 lots on the day. Although net longs rose, combined with the price decline and open interest build, this indicates active short building; longs are adding but cannot offset short selling pressure.

Nature of main contract positioning

Main contract notional open interest of CNY 51.63bn, up CNY 2.89bn on the day, alongside a 1.77% price decline — a typical “open-interest-build decline,” indicating active short building rather than passive long liquidation. This positioning structure shows heavy bearish sentiment, with fund flows unfavorable for a price rebound.

Implied vs. realized volatility

ATR14 at CNY 29.21/t and RV20 at 10.2% indicate elevated market volatility. The comparison of implied and realized volatility shows high expectations for future volatility, which may amplify price swings.

COT weekly change vs. price divergence

COT data show a divergence between weekly positioning changes and price action. Prices fell while net longs rose, indicating longs absorbing at lower levels, but with heavier short selling pressure. This divergence may signal short-term oversold conditions, but the trend is unchanged.

Conclusion: fund flows show short dominance, and the positioning structure is unfavorable for a price rebound, reinforcing the bearish thesis.

V. Cross-Asset & Onshore-Offshore Value

Cross-asset relative value

Gold/silver ratio: 69.95 [2026-10-08], 1Y percentile 80.16%, 3Y percentile 26.72%. The gold/silver ratio is at a high 1Y percentile, indicating gold outperforming silver and rising safe-haven sentiment.
Copper/gold ratio: 1.58 [2026-10-08], 1Y percentile 96.83%, 3Y percentile 56.61%. The copper/gold ratio is at an extremely high 1Y percentile, indicating copper underperforming gold and weak growth expectations.
Oil/gold ratio: 0.022 [2026-10-08], 1Y percentile 92.06%, 3Y percentile 47.88%. The oil/gold ratio is at a high 1Y percentile, indicating crude underperforming gold and weak energy demand expectations.

Onshore vs. international market relative value

As a China-listed product, Rebar's onshore-offshore relative value is mainly referenced against raw materials such as Iron Ore. Iron Ore prices are currently weakening, pressuring Rebar's cost base and further eroding price support.

Conclusion: cross-asset relative value shows rising safe-haven sentiment and weak growth expectations, weighing on Rebar demand. Onshore-offshore relative value shows a weakening cost base, further pressuring prices.

VI. Supply Chain & Seasonal Inventory

Based on statistics for the same date over the past 15 years covering the subsequent 20 trading sessions, Rebar's seasonal performance is weak. The average return is -1.12%, with a median decline of -1.91%. Of the 15-year sample, only 5 years posted gains, an up probability of about 33.3%. The best year was 2016, with a same period gain of +27.27%; the worst was 2021, with a same period decline of -25.76%. The market is currently in the traditional off-season, and historical statistics show a high probability of price declines during this period; the median decline of -1.91% provides statistical support for the current bearish thesis. Although the sample is limited, the seasonal factor resonates with the current supply-demand pressure and high-inventory fundamentals, reinforcing short-term downside expectations.

VII. Scenario Analysis

Base Case (Probability 60%): Downtrend Continues, Testing Lower Support
Core Logic: Technical breakdown resonates with open interest build on declining prices amid weak off-season demand. Trigger: Price continues to trade below the lower edge of the 20-day channel at CNY 3,060/t, while top-20 seat net long positions do not sharply decline into net short. Target Prices: First target CNY 3,047.33/t (S1 pivot), second target CNY 3,012.79/t (based on risk-reward calculation). Strategy: Maintain a bearish bias; sell into rallies, with stop-loss reference at CNY 3,093.14/t (1.1×ATR) or CNY 3,102.89/t (1.43×ATR).

Bullish Scenario (Probability 20%): Oversold Rebound, Return to Range
Core Logic: Short-term oversold repair; macro data surprises to the upside. Trigger: Price re-establishes a firm hold above CNY 3,112/t (prior weekly high) or CNY 3,183/t (20-day high), while top-20 seat net long positions sharply decline into net short. Target Prices: Rebound capped near CNY 3,112/t; if breached, look to CNY 3,183/t. Strategy: Stand aside; wait for a clear reversal signal before initiating light long positions, with a strict stop-loss.

Bearish Scenario (Probability 20%): Accelerated Decline, Breakdown to New Lows
Core Logic: Inventory pressure intensifies, demand contracts further, shorts actively add positions. Trigger: Price effectively breaks below CNY 3,047.33/t (S1) with open interest continuing to rise significantly. Target Price: Probe down to CNY 3,003/t (based on long-term risk-reward calculation). Strategy: Add to short positions after a confirmed breakdown below CNY 3,047.33/t, with stop-loss set above CNY 3,102.89/t and target at CNY 3,003/t.

Invalidation Condition: If price re-establishes a firm hold above CNY 3,112/t or CNY 3,183/t, while top-20 seat net long positions sharply decline into net short, the bearish bias is invalidated, shifting to range-bound or bullish.

VIII. Trading Strategies & Risk Management

Established Strategy Execution:

Short-Term Short: Entry CNY 3,061/t, stop-loss CNY 3,093.14/t, target CNY 3,012.79/t, horizon 1–5 days, risk-reward 1:1.5.
Medium-Term Short: Entry CNY 3,061/t, stop-loss CNY 3,102.89/t, target CNY 3,003/t, horizon 1–2 weeks, risk-reward 1:1.4.

Stop-Loss Logic: The short-term stop at CNY 3,093.14/t corresponds to a stop distance of CNY 32.14, equal to 1.1×ATR (ATR14 29.214), designed to filter out normal volatility; the medium-term stop at CNY 3,102.89/t corresponds to a stop distance of CNY 41.89, equal to 1.43×ATR, allowing greater volatility room. Both stop levels are placed below key resistance to avoid being triggered by normal oscillations.

Position Sizing:

Short-term: Single-trade risk budget CNY 6,697, implying a reference cap of 19 lots (risk CNY 351 per lot).
Medium-term: Single-trade risk budget CNY 6,697, implying a reference cap of 14 lots (risk CNY 449 per lot).

Add/Reduce Rules: Initial position should not exceed 50% of the reference cap. If price moves toward the target without hitting the stop-loss, consider adding after a breakdown below CNY 3,047.33/t, with the add-on not exceeding 30% of the initial position. If price rebounds above CNY 3,093.14/t, close out immediately.

Risk Factors: If price re-establishes a firm hold above CNY 3,112/t or CNY 3,183/t, while top-20 seat net long positions sharply decline into net short, halt short operations immediately and move to the sidelines.

IX. This Week's Data Calendar

Key Events (Beijing Time):

October 14, 09:30: China CPI YoY (Forecast: -, Prior: -), affecting ferrous metals, non-ferrous metals, and chemicals sectors.
October 14, 09:30: China PPI YoY (Forecast: -, Prior: -), affecting ferrous metals, non-ferrous metals, and chemicals sectors.

The above data may trigger short-term market volatility; monitor closely the deviation of actual readings from forecasts.

This report is generated automatically from public quantitative and macro data for research and market tracking only. It does not constitute any investment advice.

Single-name briefs Deep dive

SHFE GoldSHFE.AU 2026-10-09

沪金(SHFE.AU)深度分析报告 | 偏多：黄金与白银比价处于低位 | 2026-10-09

Rebar (SHFE.RB) In-Depth Analysis Report | Broke Below 20-Day Low, Bearish | 2026-10-09

Today's Risk Map

Single-name briefs Deep dive

Previous briefs

⟠ This month's strategy backtest