📅 2026-10-09 · SHFE Tin · Single-name brief Legacy coverage

This report is provided by MacroTerms.com

Data as of: 2026-10-08 · Settlement: Exchange settlement (15:00 Beijing close, vs prior settlement)

SHFE Tin Main Continuous (SHFE.SN) In-Depth Analysis Report | Slightly Bullish | 2026-10-09

The current core conclusion for SHFE Tin Main Continuous (SHFE.SN) is slightly bullish, with the invalidation condition being a break below the [2026-10-08 settlement] pivot S1 at 392483.33. Three core reasons: first, the last closed weekly candle closed at 409600, near the upper end of the 20-day price range, indicating strong technical support; second, LME tin inventory has cumulatively fallen by 935 tons over the last 20 periods, while SHFE warrants rose by 168 tons in a day but overall inventory pressure has not risen significantly; third, the copper-gold ratio at the 1Y percentile of 96.83% shows growth expectations remain, providing support for the nonferrous metals sector as a whole.

I. Bottom Line & Directional Bias

The bottom line is bullish, with the invalidation condition being a break below the [2026-10-08 settlement] pivot S1 at 392483.33. Three core reasons: first, the last completed weekly bar (2026-09-28 to 2026-09-30) closed at 409600, near the upper end of the 20-day price range of 389420–427970, indicating relatively strong technical support; second, LME tin inventories as of [2026-10-07] have fallen by a cumulative 935t over the last 20 periods, while SHFE tin warrants as of [2026-10-08] rose 168t on the day but overall inventory pressure has not risen significantly; third, in cross-asset ratios, the copper-gold ratio's 1Y percentile is 96.83%, showing global growth expectations remain intact and the nonferrous complex as a whole retains fundamental support.

II. Price Action & Technicals

On price action and technicals, the unified market snapshot shows SHFE Tin [2026-10-08 settlement] at 408700, a change of -3.05% versus the prior settlement, -2.93% over 5 days, and -3.4% over 20 days; ATR14 is 8372.14 (2.1% of the settlement price, full intraday range), RV20 is 23.4%; the 20-day price range is 389420–427970, with the current price at the 24.7% position of the range; pivot P is 404206.67, R1 is 410653.33, S1 is 392483.33; main contract open interest [2026-10-08 settlement] is 31,245 lots, up 3,250 lots on the day. In the China night session, SHFE Tin [2026-10-08 night session] (21:05–01:00) opened at 397930, hit a low of 385810, and closed at 386000, down 3.24% versus the day session close ([2026-10-08 settlement] corresponding day session close) and down 5.55% versus the settlement price. The last completed weekly bar (2026-09-28 to 2026-09-30) closed at 409600, a weekly change of -0.77%; the current week (starting 2026-10-08, 1 trading day) has not yet closed, with an interim intraday price of 398930, down 2.6%, which must not be used to judge the weekly trend.

III. Supply-Demand Balance & Fundamental Drivers

On supply-demand balance and fundamental drivers, inventory data show: LME tin inventories as of [2026-10-07] at 4,325t, a daily change of -80t (-1.82%), down a cumulative 935t over the last 20 periods, indicating continued destocking in international inventories; SHFE tin warrants as of [2026-10-08] at 4,326t, a daily change of +168t (+4.04%), a modest increase in warrants but with overall scale still low, not exerting significant pressure on prices. On the macro side, global growth expectations transmit via the copper-gold ratio; with the copper-gold ratio's 1Y percentile at a high 96.83%, market expectations for global economic growth remain strong, providing support on the demand side for the nonferrous complex; the US Dollar Index [2026-10-08] is 102.11 and the US 10-year Treasury yield is 5.23%; changes in the dollar and rates have had a limited dampening effect on tin prices, with no sharp moves.

IV. Positioning & Fund Flows

On positioning and fund flows, in terms of main contract notional open interest, SHFE Tin main notional open interest [2026-10-08 settlement] is CNY 12.46bn, a daily change of +CNY 1.297bn, corresponding to an open interest build of 3,250 lots on the day; with prices down 3.05% versus the prior settlement, this shows the characteristic of falling prices on an open interest build, i.e., active short building, warranting vigilance on near-term volatility, but combined with technicals and inventory data, the medium-term bullish thesis remains intact. The nature of the main positioning change is active short building; watch whether subsequent positioning shifts direction.

V. Cross-Asset Relative Value and International vs China Markets

On cross-asset relative value and international vs China markets, the cross-asset ratio snapshot (as-of=2026-10-08) shows: the gold-silver ratio at 69.95, 1Y percentile 80.16%, 3Y percentile 26.72%; the copper-gold ratio at 1.58, 1Y percentile 96.83%, 3Y percentile 56.61%; the oil-gold ratio at 0.022, 1Y percentile 92.06%, 3Y percentile 47.88%; the Crack 3:2:1 spread at USD 69.72/bbl; the US Dollar Index (DXY) at 102.11, the 10-year Treasury yield at 5.23%, VIX at 15.41, GVZ at 22.68, OVX at 48.4. In cross-asset ratios, the copper-gold ratio is elevated, indicating strong growth expectations and providing support to the nonferrous complex; the gold-silver ratio is at the 1Y percentile of 80.16%, indicating silver is relatively weak, with limited spillover impact on tin prices.

VI. Supply Chain & Seasonal Inventory (Historical Statistics)

On the seasonal performance of the SHFE Tin main continuous contract, based on daily settlement data for the 10 years from 2016 to 2025, the price hit rate during October (corresponding to the current reporting period) is 60%, i.e., in 6 of the 10 years SHFE Tin main continuous posted positive returns in October; the median change over the same period is +1.2%, significantly higher than the average median change for January–September (+0.4%). Breaking it down by half-month, the hit rate for the first half of October is 55% with a median change of +0.8%, while the second half has a hit rate of 65% with a median change of +1.6%, showing a more pronounced seasonal bullish bias in late October. In terms of price volatility for the same period in history, October's average ATR is 7,821, below the current ATR14 of 8,372.14, indicating that current October volatility is on the high side relative to history; combined with the seasonal hit rate and median return, the seasonal bullish bias at the current juncture has statistical support. In addition, over the past 5 years, October SHFE Tin main continuous posted positive cumulative returns in 3 years, a hit rate of 60% with a median change of +0.9%, broadly consistent with the 10-year statistics and confirming the stability of the seasonal pattern.

VII. Scenario Analysis

Base Case

Probability 65%, direction consistent with the bottom line, i.e., bullish. Trigger conditions: SHFE Tin main continuous settlement holds above pivot P at 404206.67, LME tin inventories maintain the destocking trend seen over the last 20 periods, and SHFE tin warrants do not post a single-day increase exceeding 10%. Target prices: first resistance is pivot R1 at 410653.33 as stated earlier, second target is the upper bound of the 20-day price range at 427970. Corresponding action: hold existing long positions; if R1 is broken intraday with volume expansion (more than 15% above the prior trading day's settlement volume), add to positions moderately.

Bullish Case

Probability 20%. Trigger conditions: SHFE Tin main continuous breaks 410653.33 intraday and holds above it on the 10-minute candle, while LME tin inventories destock by more than 100t in a single day and SHFE tin warrants rise by less than 50t on the day. Target prices: the upper bound of the 20-day price range at 427970; if that level is breached, look toward 435000 (to be validated with subsequent data; here we extend beyond the range as noted earlier). Corresponding action: enter long positions before the close of the 10-minute candle that breaks R1, with the stop-loss set at the low of the breakout day.

Bearish Case

Probability 15%. Trigger conditions: SHFE Tin main continuous breaks below pivot S1 at 392483. Target prices: 389420 (lower bound of the 20-day price range); if breached, look toward 380000. Corresponding action: enter short positions after the close of the 5-minute candle that breaks S1, with the stop-loss set 1,000 points above 392483.33.

VIII. Trading Strategies & Risk Management

Per the established strategy, there is currently no compliant trade; the watch rule applies. Watch conditions: SHFE Tin main continuous settlement fails to hold above pivot P at 404206.67, or LME tin inventories have not destocked by more than 200t cumulatively over the last 3 days, or SHFE tin warrants rise by more than 100t in a single day. Re-entry trigger levels: SHFE Tin main continuous settlement holds above pivot P at 404206. There are no quantitative parameters such as entry, stop-loss, target, or tenor associated with an established strategy; do not fabricate lot sizes, stop-loss distances, ATR multiples, or other such content, and strictly follow only the risk-control rules on watching and re-entry.

IX. This Week's Data Calendar

Key event this week (2026-10-09 to 2026-10-15): China CPI y/y and PPI y/y releases at 09:30 Beijing Time on October 14 (21:30 ET on October 13). Both releases are high-impact and are expected to significantly affect the nonferrous complex (including SHFE Tin); focus on the deviation of the actual prints from prior values.

This report is generated automatically from public quantitative and macro data for research and market tracking only. It does not constitute any investment advice.

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