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データ基準日: 2026-10-09 · 決済基準: 取引所最終日次決済価格

Copper (HG=F) Deep Dive | Bullish on Supply Tightness | 2026-10-10

We maintain a bullish bias on COMEX Copper (HG=F) with a target near 6.7708 and an invalidation level at 6.4327. The primary driver is a visible tightening in global inventory metrics, particularly at the LME, combined with strong recent price momentum that has pushed the market above key technical pivots. While COMEX registered stocks rose slightly, the LME warehouse drawdown of 2,200 MT signals a structural deficit in readily available metal. Technically, the asset has broken through the R1 pivot of 6.7708 in early Asian trade, supported by a 5-day gain of 2.18% and a 20-day channel that remains firmly upward. Positioning data shows managed money net longs are at a 61.66 percentile, indicating room for further accumulation before the trade becomes excessively crowded. Cross-asset analysis reinforces this view, with the copper/gold ratio sitting at a 98th percentile over the last year, suggesting copper is significantly outperforming gold and reflecting robust industrial demand expectations. The convergence of physical scarcity, technical breakout, and favorable relative value creates a high-probability setup for continued upside in the near term.