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データ基準日: 2026-10-09 · 決済基準: 取引所最終日次決済価格

Brent Crude (BZ=F) Deep Dive | LONG: Backwardation and Product Draws Drive Momentum Toward 106.74 | 2026-10-11

We are LONG Brent (ICE Brent December, BZZ26) with the call invalidated on a daily close below the 103.05 pivot S1 [settle 2026-10-09]. The settle at 104.72 sits in the 90th percentile of the 20-day range (93.68–105.91), backed by a 5D gain of +2.42% and 20D gain of +4.95% (settle). The curve is in backwardation with M1-M2 at +3.47 (+3.43%) and a 41.1% roll yield, confirming prompt tightness rather than a storage-driven market. Fundamentals support the bid: EIA crude stocks at 424,134 kb (2026-10-02) are only +0.2% versus the 5-year same-week average after a 3,186 kb weekly draw, while gasoline (-6.3%) and distillate (-12.0%) sit well below seasonal norms with refinery utilization at 92.7%. Baker Hughes rigs rose to 462 (+6 w/w, +44 y/y) as of 2026-10-09, a supply response worth monitoring but not yet a surplus signal. Positioning is not crowded: OVX at 48.9 is only at the 43rd percentile of one year and well above RV20 of 34.3%, so options are paying for event risk into the China data calendar. Cross-asset, oil/gold at 0.0218 is at the 90th percentile of one year, an elevated relative reading. Upside target is R2 106.74; a daily close below 103.05 flips the call.