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データ基準日: 2026-10-09 · 決済基準: 取引所最終日次決済価格

WTI Crude (CL=F) Deep Dive | Backwardation and a 98th-percentile crack vs a 20D downtrend | 2026-10-11

Call: LONG WTI crude (CL=F) on a daily settle above 92.68 (R1), with the thesis void on a daily settle below 89.18 (S2). Three reasons. First, the physical market is tight where it matters: prompt backwardation of 0.84 USD/bbl (0.92%) with roll yield 11.08%, and the 3:2:1 crack at 66.75 USD/bbl sits in the 98th percentile of one year and 99th of three years — refiners at 92.7% utilization are paying up for barrels. Second, positioning is light, not crowded: managed-money net fell to 53,598 lots on 2026-10-06, netPct 2.84%, a 15th percentile of three years, so the 20-day decline to a 33.6% channel position has been de-risking rather than distribution. Third, the tape has stabilized — settle 91.85 [2026-10-09], +0.81% over five sessions, holding above pivot P 91.343, with the last completed weekly bar (2026-09-28–10-02) closing 91.11. The bear case is real: crude stocks are +0.2% vs the five-year same-week average, rigs rose to 462, and the 20-day change is -4.26%. Invalidation: a daily settle below 89.18 (S2).