本レポート提供元 MacroTerms.com

データ基準日: 2026-10-09 · 決済基準: 取引所最終日次決済価格

Gold (GC=F) Deep Dive | Bullish: 4216.3 Settle Holds Above Pivot 4202.03 | 2026-10-11

Bullish. COMEX December gold (GCZ26) settled at 4216.3 [settle 10-09], up 1.43% on the session and 1.3% over five sessions, holding above pivot P 4202.03; the call invalidates on a daily close below S1 4170.37. Three reasons: first, the 10-09 bar recovered the full 10-08 loss and closed near its high (H 4233.7 / L 4156.1), reclaiming the pivot after the 20-day drawdown of -4.37% left price at only the 36th percentile of the 4091.2–4439.8 channel — a mean-reversion setup, not a breakdown. Second, physical supply is inert: COMEX registered stock was flat at 15.07 Moz (468,730 kg) [as of 10-08] and SHFE warrants flat at 116,028 kg [as of 10-09], while GLD ETF holdings rose 0.24% over 20 sessions to 33,858,916 oz [10-09] — investment demand is absorbing metal without visible warehouse stress. Third, managed-money net length has fallen for four straight weeks (net 110,987 on 10-06, down from 133,116 on 09-15) even as price rebounded, a de-crowding that reduces forced-selling risk; netPct at 28.02% still sits at the 91st crowding percentile, so the trade is not yet washed out. Implied vol (GVZ 22.79, 1Y 12th percentile) exceeds RV20 17.9% by 4.9 points, so upside optionality is not expensive. Risk: DXY 102.21 and 10Y at 5.24% [10-09] cap momentum; a daily close below 4170.37 flips the view.