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データ基準日: 2026-10-09 · 決済基準: 取引所最終日次決済価格

Copper (HG=F) Deep Dive | Long: China data week, ratio at 1Y high | 2026-10-11

We are bullish COMEX December copper (HGZ26) with invalidation on a daily settle below pivot S1 6.5623, then 6.4327. The call rests on three pillars. First, price action: the contract settled at 6.692 on 2026-10-09, up 1.88% on the session, +2.18% over five sessions and +2.2% over twenty, sitting at the 60th percentile of its 20-day channel (6.3445–6.9285) and pressing the first resistance pivot R1 at 6.7708. Second, positioning is constructive: managed-money net length fell to 61,134 contracts on 2026-10-06, a 20.11% share of open interest at only the 62nd percentile of its three-year range, while the CTA trend proxy stays at 98 — trend followers remain long but the trade is not crowded, leaving room for re-accumulation. Third, cross-asset confirmation is strong: the copper/gold ratio at 1.59 [2026-10-09] sits at the 98th percentile of its one-year range, a pro-growth signal. Fundamentals are mixed rather than clean: COMEX registered stock rose 4,500 short tons to 475,900 [2026-10-08] and SHFE warrants jumped 7.79% to 8,285 MT [2026-10-09], while LME warehouse stock fell 2,200 MT to 233,025 [2026-10-09]. The term structure is in contango (M1-M2 -0.0305, roll yield -5.47%), a carry cost for longs, not a tightness signal. Key risk: China CPI/PPI on 10-14 and fixed-asset investment, industrial production and retail sales on 10-19; a downside surprise is the main threat to the long.