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データ基準日: 2026-10-09 · 決済基準: 取引所最終日次決済価格

Natural Gas (NG=F) Deep Dive | Long: Rebound From 2.912 Low, Shorts Covering Into Winter | 2026-10-11

We are long natural gas (NGX26.NYM, the NYMEX contract behind NG=F) with invalidation on a daily close below the 2.912 20-day low [settle 2026-10-09]. The market settled at 3.22 on 2026-10-09, up 1.64% on the day, +6.1% over five sessions and +7.95% over twenty, having recovered from a 2.912 low printed during the week of 2026-09-28–2026-10-02 that closed down 5.89% at 3.035. The rebound has reclaimed pivot P 3.193 and sits 63.8% up the 20-day channel of 2.912–3.395, with R1 3.274 and R2 3.328 overhead. ATR14 is 0.1447, a full daily range of 4.49% of price, so position sizing must respect wide swings; RV20 of 42.5% confirms realized vol is elevated but not extreme. Managed money remains net short at -144,537 contracts as of 2026-10-06, and the net short has grown for three straight weeks, yet the CTA trend proxy reads 74 — trend followers are already leaning long, so the squeeze potential is real but not clean. The curve is in steep contango (M1-M2 -0.326, -9.19%), a heavy roll cost for longs that argues for trading the front-month momentum rather than holding a passive long. Seasonality over the next 20 sessions is modestly supportive (mean +3.32%, median +1.41%, 8 of 15 up years). The view is bullish while 3.22 holds above 3.193; a daily close below 2.912 ends the call.