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データ基準日: 2026-10-09 · 決済基準: 取引所最終日次決済価格

Silver (SI=F) Deep Dive | LONG: Rebound Off 58.73 Low, Pivot P 60.653 Holds | 2026-10-11

We are LONG silver (COMEX December silver SIZ26) with invalidation on a daily close below the 20-day low of 58.73 [settle 2026-10-09]. First, the prior session settled at 61.048, up 2.73% on the day, reclaiming pivot P at 60.653 after a five-session slide that bottomed at 58.73 on 10-08; the market is stabilizing inside the lower quartile (25th percentile) of the 20-day channel 58.73–68.105. Second, physical flow is mildly supportive: COMEX registered inventory rose 0.58% to 102.81 Moz as of 2026-10-08 while SHFE warrants fell 0.53% to 1,482,493 kg as of 2026-10-09, and SLV holdings edged up 0.12% over 20 sessions to 493,948,960 oz. Third, positioning is not crowded: managed-money net length is 7.16% of open interest, a 40th percentile 3-year crowding reading, leaving room for re-accumulation. Options pay up for event risk (VXSLV 36.33 vs RV20 29.2%, IV−RV +7.1 vol points), so we prefer outright futures over premium-heavy option structures. The gold/silver ratio at 69.07 (75th 1Y percentile, 25th 3Y percentile) shows silver lagging gold over the past year but structurally strong over three years. A break above R1 at 61.855 targets R2 at 62.663; a daily close below 58.73 invalidates the call.