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Data as of: 2026-10-09 · Settlement: Exchange settlement (15:00 Beijing close, vs prior settlement)

Iron Ore (I2701) In-Depth Analysis Report | Bearish: Position-Building Decline, Pressured at Lower Boundary of 20-Day Channel | 2026-10-11

Direction conclusion: Bearish. Iron Ore I2701 settled at 683.5 yuan/ton on [10-09 settlement], down 1.16% on the day, down 4.34% over 5 days and 6.06% over 20 days, at the 6% percentile of the 20-day channel 678.5–745, running near the lower boundary. In terms of drivers, the main contract's nominal open interest is 42.25 billion yuan, up 944 million yuan on the day, combined with price decline constituting active short position building; the top 20 seats have a net short of 42,049 lots, though down 13,984 lots on the day, the net short pattern remains unchanged. Technically, the pivot P is 683, and the settlement price is exactly suppressed below it, with R1 at 687.5 and S1 at 678, ATR14 at 10.5 (1.54%). In the international market, SGX FEF=F settled at 91.25 USD, down 5.19% over 20 days, with an international vs. China market premium of +7.51%. Direction invalidation condition: daily close firmly above 687.5 accompanied by a decline in open interest.