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Data as of: 2026-10-09 · Settlement: Exchange settlement (15:00 Beijing close, vs prior settlement)

Rebar (SHFE.RB) In-Depth Analysis Report | Bearish: Rebound on Position Reduction Unlikely to Break Downward Channel | 2026-10-11

Directional bias is bearish. The core logic lies in the technical aspect being in a weak range, fundamentals lacking peak-season demand support, and capital flows showing characteristics of short covering. Specifically, [10-09 settlement] the price closed at 3080 yuan/ton, at the 16.3% low of the 20-day channel, with heavy resistance above; although the main contract saw a price rise on position reduction (short covering), the net long positions of the top 20 seats only increased slightly, indicating insufficient bullish confidence. At the macro level, if the upcoming CPI/PPI and real estate data fall short of expectations, it will further suppress the valuation of the ferrous complex. In cross-asset comparisons, although the copper-gold ratio is at a high level suggesting growth expectations, the drag from China's real estate chain is significant. It is recommended to sell on rallies and monitor the effectiveness of the S1 support below.