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データ基準日: 2026-10-09 · 決済基準: 取引所最終日次決済価格

Brent Crude (BZ=F) Deep Dive | Backwardation and Distillate Draws Favour Longs | 2026-10-12

Call: LONG Brent crude (BZ=F / BZZ26.NYM) with invalidation on a daily settle below 101.38 (S2). The prior session settle of 104.72 [2026-10-09] sits at the 90.3% position of the 20-day 93.68–105.91 channel, with 5D +2.42% and 20D +4.95% (settle), and early Asia trade on 2026-10-12 at 06:50 shows 105.53 (+0.77% vs settle), pressing the 20-day high. Three supports: (1) the curve is in backwardation of 3.47 (3.43%) M1-M2 with roll yield 41.13%, signalling prompt tightness; (2) EIA distillate stocks at 105,138 kb are 12.0% below the 5-year same-week average and gasoline is 6.3% below, while crude sits only +0.2% versus the same benchmark; (3) positioning is not crowded and implied vol at OVX 48.9 (43rd 1Y percentile) is modest against RV20 of 34.3%. The main risk is the heavy US CPI/PPI and China data slate from 10-13 to 10-16, plus a bearish 20-session seasonal mean of -2.32%. A daily settle below 101.38 breaks the structure and voids the long.