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データ基準日: 2026-10-09 · 決済基準: 取引所最終日次決済価格

WTI Crude (CL=F) Deep Dive | Backwardation vs Crowded-Long Unwind | 2026-10-12

Call: LONG WTI crude (CLZ26, the December 2026 contract per the continuous mapping) on a 20-day pullback into a backwardated curve, with invalidation on a daily close below 89.18 (S2). Three supports: (1) the curve is in backwardation of 0.84 USD/bbl M1-M2 (0.92%) with roll yield 11.08%, i.e. prompt tightness, not surplus; (2) EIA crude stocks at 424,134 kb (2026-10-02) are only +0.2% vs the 5-year same-week average while distillate is -12.0% and gasoline -6.3%, and the 3:2:1 crack at 66.75 USD/bbl sits at the 98th 1Y percentile — refining pull is strong; (3) positioning has already de-risked, with managed-money net down to 53,598 lots (2026-10-06) from 106,279 on 2026-09-15 and crowding at only the 15th 3-year percentile, so the long base is light into a bullish seasonal and inventory backdrop. The prior settle was 91.85 [2026-10-09], with Asia trade at 92.38 (+0.58%) as of 06:50 on 2026-10-12. The main risk is the heavy US macro calendar (CPI 10-14, retail sales 10-15) and a still-elevated OVX at 48.
9.