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データ基準日: 2026-10-09 · 決済基準: 取引所最終日次決済価格

Copper (HG=F) Deep Dive | Constructive but crowded: long bias into 6.7708 | 2026-10-12

Call: LONG copper, with the trade invalidated on a daily close below 6.4327 (S2). Three reasons. First, price structure is constructive: HG=F settled 6.692 [settle 10-09], +2.18% over 5D and +2.2% over 20D, holding the upper half of the 20-day 6.3445–6.9285 channel (59.5% position) and above pivot P 6.6412. Second, the visible inventory mix is mildly supportive — LME warehouse stock 233,025 MT [2026-10-09] fell 2,200 MT d/d and is down 1,450 MT over 20 reports, while COMEX registered 475,900 short tons [2026-10-08] rose 4,500 short tons d/d and SHFE warrant 8,285 MT [2026-10-09] rose 599 MT d/d — net, no aggressive accumulation. Third, copper/gold at 1.59 [2026-10-09] sits in the 98th 1Y percentile, a pro-growth configuration. The main risk is positioning: managed-money net 61,134 contracts [2026-10-06] fell 16,924 w/w, netPct 20.11% with crowding at the 62nd percentile and CTA proxy at 98 — long but not yet extreme. ATR14 0.1274 (1.9% of price) frames the noise; a daily close below 6.4327 breaks the structure and voids the long.