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データ基準日: 2026-10-09 · 決済基準: 取引所最終日次決済価格

Natural Gas (NG=F) Deep Dive | Long: 5D +6.1% Rebound, Shorts Covering | 2026-10-12

We are LONG natural gas (NYMEX NGX26.NYM) with invalidation on a daily close below the 3.139 pivot S1 (settle basis). The call rests on three pillars: (1) momentum — the 2026-10-09 settle of 3.22 caps a +6.1% five-session and +7.95% 20-day advance, with the last completed week (2026-10-05 to 2026-10-09) closing at 3.22, up 6.1% w/w from a 3.019 open; (2) positioning — managed money remains net short at -144,537 contracts as of 2026-10-06, but the net short shrank by 11,738 week-over-week, and the CTA trend proxy reads 74, signalling trend-followers are already leaning long and short-covering can extend the move; (3) structure — the curve is in steep contango (M1-M2 -0.326, -9.19%), a heavy roll cost for longs but a sign the market prices prompt weakness that a cold start to the heating season would invalidate. Risks are real: ATR14 is 0.1447, a full 4.49% of price, so daily noise is wide; RV20 sits at 42.5% while the curve's -110.32% roll yield punishes carry; and early Asian trade on 2026-10-12 (07:00) shows 3.191, down 0.9% versus settle, back under pivot P 3.193. Seasonality for the next 20 sessions is constructive (mean +3.55%, median +3.54%, up 8 of 15 years) but the 2016 tail is -16.2%. We size for volatility, respect the 3.139 line, and target the 3.274 R1 / 3.328 R2 zone on continuation.