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データ基準日: 2026-10-09 · 決済基準: 取引所最終日次決済価格

Corn (ZC=F) Deep Dive | SHORT — 20-day low break, curve in contango | 2026-10-12

Call: SHORT corn (ZC=F, front December ZCZ26) — the prior session settle 479.75 [settle 10-09] broke below the prior 20-day low 495, the curve is in contango (M1-M2 -14.5, -2.93%), and the 20-day channel position is 12.8% with 20D -9.52%. Three reasons: (1) the 10-09 settle 479.75 [settle 10-09] is below the prior 20-day low 495 and sits at 12.8% of the 20D 470.25–544.5 channel, with 5D -3.62% and 20D -9.52% all settle-based; (2) the term structure is contango, M1-M2 -14.5 (-2.93%) with roll yield -11.74%, so longs pay to hold and there is no prompt scarcity signal; (3) positioning and volatility give no offset — RV20 26.1% against ATR14 12.32 (2.57% of price), Sharpe30 -3.9049 and DD20d 11.65% describe a market in persistent drawdown. Invalidation: a daily close back above 484.92 (pivot P) would neutralize the break; a daily close above 499.58 (R1) invalidates the short. No Asia print was available for this issue, so all report-date observations are intraday only.