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データ基準日: 2026-10-09 · 決済基準: 取引所最終日次決済価格

Soybeans (ZS=F) Deep Dive | Bearish: Asia breaks 1274.75 pivot, crush margin the only support | 2026-10-12

Call: Bearish ZS=F (CME November 2026, ZSX26.CBT) — the prior settle 1292 [2026-10-09] has been undercut in early Asian trade on 2026-10-12 at 1264.07 (-2.16% vs settle), which is a genuine breach of pivot P 1287 and S1 1274.75; invalidation is a daily close back above 1304.25 (R1). Three reasons: (1) the 20-day channel position was already only 35.6% before the break, with 20D change -0.35% and the last completed weekly bar (2026-10-05–10-09) closing at 1292, so the market was stalling rather than trending; (2) the curve is in contango, M1-M2 -16.75 (-1.28%) with roll yield -7.68%, meaning carry penalises longs and there is no prompt tightness to defend the front month; (3) the only firm fundamental in the feed — US crush margin 2.6054 USD/bu [2026-10-09], 1Y percentile 67.06% — is a demand-side positive but has not been enough to hold price above the 20-day midpoint. Positioning and cross-asset data are supportive of a soft, not collapsing, complex, so this is a tactical short into 1257.5 (S2) rather than a structural bear call.