본 리포트 제공 MacroTerms.com

데이터 기준일: 2026-10-09 · 결제 기준: 거래소 최종 일일 결제가

FEF=F (FEF=F) Deep Dive | Bullish Bounce Off 52-Week Lows | 2026-10-12

We are Bullish on FEF=F, with the thesis invalidated by a daily settlement below 90.583 (pivot S2). The contract settled at 91.25 on 2026-10-09, bouncing from the 52-week low of 90.8 and holding above pivot support S1 at 90.917. Three factors underpin this call: first, price has found a structural floor near the bottom of its 20-day range (90.8–97.
3), positioning it in the lower 6.9% of that channel; second, realized volatility has compressed to 9.7%, suggesting the aggressive selling that drove the 20-day decline of -5.19% is exhausting itself; third, cross-asset signals—specifically the oil/gold ratio at the 90th percentile of its one-year range—indicate energy-linked inputs remain elevated, providing a cost floor for industrial commodities. While the five-day change remains slightly negative at -0.38% (settle), the last completed weekly bar (2026-10-05 to 2026-10-09) printed a lower wick to 90.8 before closing unchanged at 91.25, signaling intraweek demand absorption. With ATR14 at just 0.75 (0.82% of price), downside momentum has stalled. We look for a recovery toward resistance R1 at 91.467, provided the 90.583 invalidation level holds.