본 리포트 제공 MacroTerms.com

데이터 기준일: 2026-10-09 · 결제 기준: 거래소 최종 일일 결제가

Gold (GC=F) Deep Dive | Long into CPI, 4091 base holds | 2026-10-12

Call: LONG COMEX December gold (GCZ26) from the 4209.1 Asia reference [2026-10-12 07:00], with the trade invalidated on a daily settle below 4091.2 — the 20-day low and the 10-07 settle. Three reasons. First, price structure: gold settled 4216.3 [2026-10-09], +1.43% on the day and +1.3% over 5D, having defended the 4091.2–4439.8 20-day channel at 35.9% position, with the last completed weekly bar (10-05/10-09) closing at 4216.3, +1.3% w/w. Second, positioning is de-risking rather than capitulating: managed-money net fell to 110,987 lots at 2026-10-06 (Δ −9,331 w/w) while price rose, and the crowding percentile eased to 90.8 from 92.58 — a lighter long base into a heavy US data week. Third, the physical and options backdrop is supportive: GLD holdings rose 0.24% over 20 sessions to 33,858,916 oz [2026-10-09], COMEX registered stock is flat at 15.07 Moz [2026-10-08], and GVZ at 22.79 sits in the 12th 1Y percentile against RV20 of 17.9% — optionality is cheap relative to realized. The main risk is the 10-14 US CPI cluster and a 10Y at 5.24%.