본 리포트 제공 MacroTerms.com

데이터 기준일: 2026-10-09 · 결제 기준: 거래소 최종 일일 결제가

Silver (SI=F) Deep Dive | Long: Rebound From 20-Day Low, 60.65 Pivot Holds | 2026-10-12

We are long COMEX December silver (SIZ26) with invalidation on a daily close below the 59.845 S1 pivot. The contract settled at 61.048 on 2026-10-09, up 2.73% on the session (settle), after printing the 20-day low of 58.73 on 2026-10-08, and is +1.05% over five sessions (settle) though still -6.35% over 20 days (settle). Early Asian trade on 2026-10-12 at 07:00 shows 61.084, +0.06% versus settle (Asia), holding above the 60.653 pivot P. Three reasons support the long: first, the 2026-10-08 washout low at 58.73 was reclaimed within one session, a classic exhaustion signal at the bottom of the 58.73-68.105 20-day channel; second, positioning is not crowded, with managed-money net length at a 39.56% crowding percentile as of 2026-10-06, leaving room for re-accumulation; third, the gold/silver ratio at 69.07 sits at the 74.6% one-year percentile, meaning silver has lagged and carries catch-up potential. Realized volatility of 29.2% against implied 36.33% shows options still price event risk into the 2026-10-14 US CPI print, so position sizing must respect an ATR14 of 2.199 (3.6% of price, full daily range). The bias flips bearish on a daily close below 59.845, which would expose the 58.643 S2 pivot and the 58.73 20-day low.