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데이터 기준일: 2026-10-09 · 결제 기준: 거래소 최종 일일 결제가

Wheat (ZW=F) Deep Dive | Bearish drift toward the 20-day floor, 661.5 the line | 2026-10-12

Call: bearish ZW=F (CBOT December ZWZ26) while the prior settle of 671 [settle 10-09] holds below pivot P 673.33; invalidation is a daily close back above 685.17 (R1), which would flip the structure back to the 20-day mid. Three reasons. First, trend and location: settle 671 [settle 10-09] sits at the 12.8% position of the 20-day 661.5–736 channel, with 5D -1.76% and 20D -7.48% (settle), and the last completed weekly bar (10-05/10-09) closed at 671, -1.76% w/w, after failing at 706.
5. Second, carry and curve: the front spread is contango, M1-M2 -14.25 (-2.08%) with roll yield -8.32%, so longs pay to hold a market with no prompt scarcity. Third, positioning and vol: RV20 is 21.5% while wheat has no listed IV in the snapshot, and the 20-session seasonal window is a median -0.35% with only 7 of 15 years up — no tailwind. Cross-asset is not a wheat driver: copper/gold 1.59 sits at the 98th 1Y percentile and oil/gold 0.0218 at the 90th, both pro-growth readings that have not lifted wheat. Trade: sell rallies into 673–685, stop on a daily close above 685.17, first objective 659.17 (S1) then 647.33 (S2).