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Data as of: 2026-10-09 · Settlement: Exchange settlement (15:00 Beijing close, vs prior settlement)

Iron Ore (I2701) In-Depth Analysis Report | Bearish: Price Decline on Rising Open Interest and Widening International-China Market Premium | 2026-10-12

Direction is bearish. I2701 settled at 683.5 [10-09 settlement], having broken below the 20-day channel lower bound of 678.5 by only 5 points; 5-day -4.34%, 20-day -6.06%, with the 20-day channel position at only 6%, indicating both trend and position are aligned to the weak side; main contract open interest was 619029 lots (+13828), and notional open interest rose by 944 million yuan daily to 42.25 billion yuan, representing a price decline on rising open interest driven proactively by shorts; top 20 seats' net short stood at 42049 lots (daily -13984 lots), with shorts slightly reducing positions but the net short structure unchanged. The international-to-China market ratio showed a China ex-tax converted premium of +7.51% [10-09], widening from +6.92% five days earlier, suggesting the China market is relatively expensive and the import window tends to open, exerting downward pull on the futures. Condition for directional invalidation: if I2701 closes on the daily chart above 693.5 (approximately 1 ATR above P) accompanied by a decline in open interest, the bearish logic would be invalidated.