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Data as of: 2026-10-09 · Settlement: Exchange settlement (15:00 Beijing close, vs prior settlement)

SHFE Copper (CU2611) Deep Analysis | International Strength vs. China Position Reduction Divergence, Bullish but Needs Confirmation | 2026-10-12

SHFE Copper CU2611 is directionally bullish, but the divergence between China's position reduction/decline and international market strength requires confirmation via continued international strength or increased positions in China. Core rationale: First, international market HG=F settled at 6.692 [10-09], +1.88% in a single day and +2.18% over 5 days, at the 59.5% 20-day position, with Asian early session at 6.698 continuing higher—international momentum is strong. Second, LME inventory at 233,025 tons [10-09] fell 2,200 tons daily; SHFE warrants at 8,285 tons [10-09] increased 599 tons but remain at low absolute levels; the international-China premium at +0.12% [10-09] has significantly recovered from -0.85% five days prior. Third, the copper-gold ratio at 1.59 sits at the 98.02% percentile over one year, with growth expectations supporting copper prices. However, main positions stand at 192,040 lots, down 1,783 hands, with nominal positions declining 982 million yuan daily—position reduction amid decline signals long liquidation and insufficient willingness in China to follow international gains. Invalidation condition: CU2611 daily close breaks below pivot S1 at 109180.