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Data as of: 2026-10-09 · Settlement: Exchange settlement (15:00 Beijing close, vs prior settlement)

Rebar (RB2701) Deep Analysis Report | Bearish: Testing 20-day Channel Lower Support at 3060 | 2026-10-12

Directional Conclusion: Bearish. Rebar RB2701 [10-09 settlement] at 3080 CNY/ton, -1.22% over 5 days and -1.97% over 20 days. Price sits at the 16.3% percentile of the 20-day channel range (3060–3183), near the lower boundary. ATR14 is 28.29 (0.92%), and RV20 is only 10.5%; under such low volatility, directional selection depends on catalysts. On the fundamental side, on 10-08 the price dropped from 3112 to 3061 (-1.64%) in a single session. Although the night session rebounded to 3097 (+0.55% vs settlement), main positions decreased by 13,220 lots, and nominal open interest fell by 407 million CNY day-over-day to 51.54 billion CNY. This is a flat-volume, direction-uncertain性质 (nature), not an active long attack. The top 20 seats hold a net long of 37,885 lots (daily change +390 lots), a limited increase in net longs. On the cross-asset side, the copper-gold ratio at 1.59 is at the 98.02% percentile over 1 year and 58.33% over 3 years, indicating strong growth expectations that provide sentiment support to black metals but have not transmitted to the futures market. Invalidation condition for the bearish view: a daily close above 3104 (night session high) and a breakout above 3112 (09-30 settlement high).