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データ基準日: 2026-10-09 · 決済基準: 取引所最終日次決済価格

Brent Crude (BZ=F) Deep Dive | LONG: Backwardation + Product Draws, Buy Dips Toward 106.74 | 2026-10-13

We are LONG Brent (BZZ26.NYM) with invalidation on a daily close below the 103.05 pivot (settle basis). The prior session settled at 104.72 [settle 10-09], up 0.42% on the day, +2.42% over five sessions and +4.95% over twenty, leaving price at the 90th percentile of its 20-day range (93.68–105.91). Early Asian trade on 2026-10-13 (as of 06:50) printed 106.14, +1.36% versus settle, with an intraday high of 107.3 and low of 102.8 — above the 20-day high of 105.91, though that print is intraday, not a settlement. The term structure is in backwardation (M1–M2 3.47, 3.43%, roll yield 41.13%), signaling prompt tightness. Fundamentals corroborate: crude inventories at 424,134 kb are only +0.2% versus the five-year same-week average, while gasoline sits -6.3% and distillate -12.0% below, with the 3:2:1 crack at 64.55 $/bbl. Positioning is not crowded on the vol side — OVX at 48.9 is only at the 43rd percentile of its one-year range, and RV20 of 34.3% sits well below implied, so optionality is not pricing a full risk premium. The oil/gold ratio at 0.0224 is at the 95th percentile of one year, a warning that the easy relative outperformance is behind us, but not a timing signal. Seasonality is a headwind (next 20 sessions mean -2.86%, up only 5 of 15 years), so we size modestly and add only above 105.73. The view is bullish while 103.05 holds on a daily close basis.