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データ基準日: 2026-10-12 · 決済基準: 取引所最終日次決済価格

WTI Crude (CL=F) Deep Dive | Backwardation and a 98th-percentile crack outweigh a 14th-percentile long | 2026-10-13

Call: LONG WTI (CLZ26), invalidated on a daily settle below 90.78 (S1). Three reasons. First, the curve is in backwardation of 0.84 USD/bbl M1-M2 (0.92%) with roll yield 11.08%, and the 3:2:1 crack sits at 66.75 USD/bbl, a 98th percentile on one year and 99th on three — product-led tightness, not a macro trade. Second, the 2026-10-12 settle of 93.74 (+2.06%) reclaimed pivot P 92.57 and closed above the prior week's 93.2 high, with the 20-day channel at 86.86–101.69 (position 46.4%) leaving room to R2 97.32 before the range top. Third, managed-money net length has been cut four straight weeks to 53,598 lots (netPct 2.84%, crowding 14.63, 3-year percentile) while price rose — positioning is light, not crowded. The offset: EIA crude stocks at 424,134 kb sit +0.2% versus the five-year same-week average and US rigs rose 6 w/w to 462, so the tightness is in products, not crude. Invalidation is a daily settle below 90.78; a settle above 97.32 opens 101.69.