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データ基準日: 2026-10-12 · 決済基準: 取引所最終日次決済価格

CN=F (CN=F) Deep Dive | Neutral at 13750, 20D range floor 13563 is the line | 2026-10-13

Neutral on CN=F at the 13750 settle [10-12], with the call invalidated by a daily close below the 20-day low of 13563. The contract has lost 4.81% over 20 sessions (settle) and sits at the 15.2% percentile of its 20-day channel, yet the last five settled bars show stabilization: 13852, 13822, 13717, 13753, 13750, with the 10-09 low of 13563 bought twice. Realized volatility is compressed at RV20 12.7% against ATR14 of 184.07 (1.34% of price), so the market is coiling rather than trending; a break of either end of the 13563–14794 channel would carry the full ATR as a first objective. Asia trade on 10-13 is flat at 13742, 9 points under the settle, inside a 13732–13774 band and just below pivot P 13791.33, confirming indecision rather than distribution. The week-ahead calendar is heavy: China M2, loans, CPI, PPI and trade prints, then US CPI, PPI, retail sales and a Fed chairman speech, all flagged to metals. With implied vol low (GVZ 22.79, 12% 1Y percentile) and the copper/gold ratio at a 99.6% 1Y percentile, the macro backdrop is mixed. We hold no directional edge until 13563 fails or 13856.67 (R1) is reclaimed on a settle basis.