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データ基準日: 2026-10-12 · 決済基準: 取引所最終日次決済価格

FEF=F Deep Dive | Short: 20D channel floor at risk, 90.85 pivot is the line | 2026-10-13

We are SHORT FEF=F, with the call invalidated on a daily close back above the 91.35 pivot R2 [settle 2026-10-12]. The contract settled at 90.95 on 2026-10-12, down 0.33% on the day, and sits 5.11% below its level of 20 sessions ago, with the 5-day change at -0.98% (settle). Price is pinned at the bottom of its 20-day channel of 90.8-97.3, at only the 2nd percentile of that range, and the 52-week low of 90.8 is the same number as the channel floor, so the market is pressing a level that has defined the year's lows. ATR14 is 0.707, just 0.78% of price, and RV20 is 9.7%, so this is a low-volatility grind lower rather than a disorderly break, which argues for patience rather than chasing. The classic pivot ladder from 2026-10-09 puts P at 91.05, R1 at 91.15, R2 at 91.35, S1 at 90.85 and S2 at 90.75, and price is trading under the pivot, a bearish configuration. The last completed weekly bar (2026-10-05 to 2026-10-09) closed at 91.25, down 0.38% w/w, with a 90.8 low that has already been retested. The current week is unfinished and offers no weekly-close conclusion. A daily close below 90.85 opens 90.75 and then the 90.8 channel floor; a daily close above 91.35 invalidates the short.