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データ基準日: 2026-10-12 · 決済基準: 取引所最終日次決済価格

Gold (GC=F) Deep Dive | LONG COMEX December Gold (GCZ26): 20D Pullback into 4091 Support | 2026-10-13

We are LONG gold (COMEX December gold, GCZ26) with invalidation on a daily close below 4091.2, the 20-day low [settle 10-12]. First, the 20-day drawdown of -3.71% (settle) has already retraced into the lower half of the 20-day channel (4091.2-4439.8, position 28.5%), while the last completed weekly bar (2026-10-05 to 2026-10-09) closed at 4216.3, up 1.3% w/w, keeping the higher-low structure intact. Second, physical and ETF demand are absorbing supply: COMEX registered stock is flat at 15.07 Moz (468,730 kg) as of 2026-10-08, SHFE warrants are flat at 116,028 kg as of 2026-10-12, and GLD holdings rose 0.24% over 20 sessions to 33,858,916 oz (2026-10-09), with headlines noting China ramping up gold buying as prices fall. Third, positioning is long but not at extremes: managed-money net length fell for four straight weeks to 110,987 contracts (2026-10-06), a 90.8% crowding percentile that is elevated yet de-risking, and GVZ at 22.79 sits in only the 12th 1-year percentile, so upside optionality is not priced. The term structure is in contango (M1-M2 -19.2, -0.45%), a carry cost for longs rather than a price signal. Asia trade on 2026-10-13 at 07:00 shows 4193.37 (+0.07% vs settle), holding above S1 4165.03. A daily close below 4091.2 invalidates; upside opens 4267.87 (R2) then 4439.8 (20-day high).