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データ基準日: 2026-10-12 · 決済基準: 取引所最終日次決済価格

Copper (HG=F) Deep Dive | LONG: Momentum Holds Above Pivot 6.7413 | 2026-10-13

We are LONG copper (COMEX December HGZ26) with invalidation on a daily close below the 20-day midpoint 6.6365. The prior session settled at 6.747 [settle 2026-10-12], up 0.82% on the day, +1.6% over five sessions and +5.35% over twenty, leaving price at the 69th percentile of the 20-day channel (6.3445–6.9285) and within roughly 3% of the 52-week high 6.96. Early Asian trade on 2026-10-13 (07:00) printed 6.7586, +0.17% versus settle, holding above pivot P 6.7413. The last completed weekly bar (2026-10-05 to 2026-10-09) closed at 6.692, +2.18% w/w, with the current week still unfinished. Managed-money net length fell 16,924 contracts in the week to 2026-10-06 while price rose — a constructive de-crowding that leaves netPct at 20.1% (62nd 3-year percentile), not an extreme. The copper/gold ratio at 1.61 sits in the 100th 1-year percentile, confirming pro-growth leadership. COMEX registered stock rose 4,500 short tons to 475,900 (2026-10-08) while LME fell 2,200 MT to 233,025 (2026-10-09); SHFE warrants are thin at 8,785 MT. ATR14 is 0.122 (1.81% of price), so a break above R1 6.7887 targets 6.8303; a daily close below 6.6365 invalidates the long.