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データ基準日: 2026-10-12 · 決済基準: 取引所最終日次決済価格

Natural Gas (NG=F) Deep Dive | Long NGX26: 3.167 Settle Holds Above Pivot 3.1543 | 2026-10-13

We are long NYMEX natural gas (NGX26) with the call invalidated on a daily close below the 3.1047 S1 pivot. The 2026-10-12 settle printed 3.167, down 1.65% on the session but still up 3.29% over five sessions and 3.97% over twenty, leaving price at the 53rd percentile of the 2.912–3.395 twenty-day channel. The last completed weekly bar (2026-10-05 to 2026-10-09) closed at 3.22, up 6.1% week-on-week, and the current week is unfinished. Early Asian trade on 2026-10-13 at 07:00 showed 3.185, up 0.57% versus settle, reclaiming the 3.1543 pivot. Managed-money positioning is net short at -144,537 contracts as of 2026-10-06, a 39.96 crowding percentile, so the trade is not crowded and shorts remain fuel for a squeeze. The curve is in steep contango with a -110.32% roll yield, which is a persistent drag on longs and argues for tactical rather than core length. ATR14 is 0.1406, roughly 4.44% of price, so stops must sit beyond S1 with room for noise. Seasonality over the next twenty sessions is modestly supportive, averaging +3.85% with nine up years of fifteen. The view is bullish while 3.1047 holds, targeting 3.2663 then 3.395.