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データ基準日: 2026-10-12 · 決済基準: 取引所最終日次決済価格

Silver (SI=F) Deep Dive | Long COMEX Dec Silver (SIZ26) — Rebound From 58.73 | 2026-10-13

Bullish silver, with the call invalidated by a daily close below the 20-day low of 58.73 (settle basis). The settle of 60.513 [10-12] sits only 19% up the 20-day channel of 58.73–68.105 after a 5.65% 20-day drawdown, leaving the market washed out at the bottom of its range while the last completed weekly bar (2026-10-05–10-09) still closed up 1.05% at 61.048. Physical flows are mildly supportive: COMEX registered inventory rose 0.58% to 102.81 Moz [10-08], SHFE warrants fell for a third straight session to 1,475,739 kg [10-12], and SLV holdings edged up 0.12% over 20 sessions to 493,948,960 oz [10-09]. Positioning is not crowded — managed-money net length is 7.16% of open interest, a 39.56 three-year percentile [10-06] — so there is room for length to rebuild rather than a liquidation overhang. Options pay up for event risk (VXSLV 36.33 vs RV20 28.8%, IV−RV +7.5 vol points [10-09]), which argues for owning the metal rather than premium into the 10-14 US CPI and 10-15 retail sales. The gold/silver ratio at 69.25 [10-12] sits in the 77.38 one-year percentile, i.e. silver is lagging gold on a one-year view and has catch-up room. Upside targets are R1 61.374 then R2 62.234; a daily close below 58.73 flips the call.