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データ基準日: 2026-10-12 · 決済基準: 取引所最終日次決済価格

Soybeans (ZS=F) Deep Dive | Long: Crush Margins Support, 20D Channel Holds | 2026-10-13

We are long November soybeans (ZSX26.CBT) with invalidation on a daily close below 1269.75, the 20-day low [settle 2026-10-12]. The prior session settled at 1287.75, down 0.33% on the day but up 0.55% over five sessions, holding the lower half of the 20-day channel at 1269.75–1332.25 with a 28.8% position reading. The US soybean crush margin stands at 2.6054 USD/bu as of 2026-10-09, in the 67.06% 1-year and 89.01% 3-year percentiles, up from 2.4614 twenty sessions earlier — processors are bidding for beans, which underpins the front of the curve. The term structure is in contango at M1-M2 -16.75 (-1.28%), a carry cost for longs, not a price cap. Seasonality over the next 20 sessions is constructive: mean +1.2%, median +1.58%, up 9 of 15 years. Realized volatility is subdued at RV20 15.2% with ATR14 21.52 (1.67% of price), so a stop beyond the 20-day low is outside normal daily noise. Key risk: a China data miss this week (CPI, trade balance) or a stronger DXY at 102.57 would pressure the long.