본 리포트 제공 MacroTerms.com

데이터 기준일: 2026-10-12 · 결제 기준: 거래소 최종 일일 결제가

Corn (ZC=F) Deep Dive | Bearish: 20D slide intact, 477.92 pivot is the line | 2026-10-13

Bearish corn: the December contract (ZCZ26.CBT) settled at 483 on 2026-10-12, down 2.87% over five sessions and 9.42% over twenty, with price at the 17.2% position of the 470.25–544.5 20-day channel. Three reasons for the short bias: first, the sell-off is orderly, not capitulatory — RV20 is only 26.1% and ATR14 is 12.27 (2.54% of price), so the downtrend has room to extend without a volatility shock; second, the 2026-10-09 bar drove the break, slicing from a 504.75 high to a 470.25 low before settling 479.75, and the 2026-10-12 recovery to 483 stalled under pivot P 481.08's immediate resistance cluster; third, the curve is in contango with M1-M2 at -14.5 (-2.93%) and a -11.74% roll yield, a structure that taxes longs and signals no nearby supply scarcity. Seasonality is a headwind, not a support: the next 20 sessions average +0.25% but median -1.56%, up only 6 of 15 years. Invalidation is a daily close above R1 486.17, which would re-open the 489.33 R2 zone; a daily close below S1 477.92 targets S2 472.83. No Asia print was captured for this issue.